How does internal variability influence the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce the recent trend in Southern Ocean sea ice extent?
Observations over the last 30 yr have shown that the sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean has slightly increased since 1979. Mechanisms responsible for this positive trend have not been well established yet. In this study we tackle two related issues: is the observed positive trend compatible with t...
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ftunivlouvain:oai:dial.uclouvain.be:boreal:126087 2024-05-19T07:29:28+00:00 How does internal variability influence the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce the recent trend in Southern Ocean sea ice extent? Zunz, Violette Goosse, Hugues Massonnet, François UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate 2013 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/126087 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013 eng eng Copernicus GmbH boreal:126087 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/126087 doi:10.5194/tc-7-451-2013 urn:ISSN:1994-0416 urn:EISSN:1994-0424 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess The Cryosphere, Vol. 7, p. 451-468 (2013) CISM:CECI models Southern Ocean sea ice Climate 1443 info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2013 ftunivlouvain https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013 2024-04-24T01:39:08Z Observations over the last 30 yr have shown that the sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean has slightly increased since 1979. Mechanisms responsible for this positive trend have not been well established yet. In this study we tackle two related issues: is the observed positive trend compatible with the internal variability of the system, and do the models agree with what we know about the observed internal variability? For that purpose, we analyse the evolution of sea ice around the Antarctic simulated by 24 different general circulation models involved in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), using both historical and hindcast experiments. Our analyses show that CMIP5 models respond to the forcing, including the one induced by stratospheric ozone depletion, by reducing the sea ice cover in the Southern Ocean. Some simulations display an increase in sea ice extent similar to the observed one. According to models, the observed positive trend is compatible with internal variability. However, models strongly overestimate the variance of sea ice extent and the initialization methods currently used in models do not improve systematically the simulated trends in sea ice extent. On the basis of those results, a critical role of the internal variability in the observed increase of sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean could not be ruled out, but current models results appear inadequate to test more precisely this hypothesis. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean The Cryosphere DIAL@UCLouvain (Université catholique de Louvain) The Cryosphere 7 2 451 468 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
DIAL@UCLouvain (Université catholique de Louvain) |
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ftunivlouvain |
language |
English |
topic |
CISM:CECI models Southern Ocean sea ice Climate 1443 |
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CISM:CECI models Southern Ocean sea ice Climate 1443 Zunz, Violette Goosse, Hugues Massonnet, François How does internal variability influence the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce the recent trend in Southern Ocean sea ice extent? |
topic_facet |
CISM:CECI models Southern Ocean sea ice Climate 1443 |
description |
Observations over the last 30 yr have shown that the sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean has slightly increased since 1979. Mechanisms responsible for this positive trend have not been well established yet. In this study we tackle two related issues: is the observed positive trend compatible with the internal variability of the system, and do the models agree with what we know about the observed internal variability? For that purpose, we analyse the evolution of sea ice around the Antarctic simulated by 24 different general circulation models involved in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), using both historical and hindcast experiments. Our analyses show that CMIP5 models respond to the forcing, including the one induced by stratospheric ozone depletion, by reducing the sea ice cover in the Southern Ocean. Some simulations display an increase in sea ice extent similar to the observed one. According to models, the observed positive trend is compatible with internal variability. However, models strongly overestimate the variance of sea ice extent and the initialization methods currently used in models do not improve systematically the simulated trends in sea ice extent. On the basis of those results, a critical role of the internal variability in the observed increase of sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean could not be ruled out, but current models results appear inadequate to test more precisely this hypothesis. |
author2 |
UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zunz, Violette Goosse, Hugues Massonnet, François |
author_facet |
Zunz, Violette Goosse, Hugues Massonnet, François |
author_sort |
Zunz, Violette |
title |
How does internal variability influence the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce the recent trend in Southern Ocean sea ice extent? |
title_short |
How does internal variability influence the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce the recent trend in Southern Ocean sea ice extent? |
title_full |
How does internal variability influence the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce the recent trend in Southern Ocean sea ice extent? |
title_fullStr |
How does internal variability influence the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce the recent trend in Southern Ocean sea ice extent? |
title_full_unstemmed |
How does internal variability influence the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce the recent trend in Southern Ocean sea ice extent? |
title_sort |
how does internal variability influence the ability of cmip5 models to reproduce the recent trend in southern ocean sea ice extent? |
publisher |
Copernicus GmbH |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/126087 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol. 7, p. 451-468 (2013) |
op_relation |
boreal:126087 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/126087 doi:10.5194/tc-7-451-2013 urn:ISSN:1994-0416 urn:EISSN:1994-0424 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
7 |
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2 |
container_start_page |
451 |
op_container_end_page |
468 |
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1799479395486793728 |