Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
<jats:p>Abstract. The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model In...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Copernicus GmbH
2023
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Online Access: | https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3183123/ https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 |
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<jats:p>Abstract. The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Seroussi, Hélène Verjans, Vincent Nowicki, Sophie Payne, Antony J Goelzer, Heiko Lipscomb, William H Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Barthel, Alice Calov, Reinhard Cullather, Richard Dumas, Christophe Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R Gregory, Jonathan M Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C Kleiner, Thomas Larour, Eric Leguy, Gunter R Lowry, Daniel P Little, Chistopher M Morlighem, Mathieu Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Smith, Robin S Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Trusel, Luke D Van Breedam, Jonas Van Katwyk, Peter van de Wal, Roderik SW Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas |
spellingShingle |
Seroussi, Hélène Verjans, Vincent Nowicki, Sophie Payne, Antony J Goelzer, Heiko Lipscomb, William H Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Barthel, Alice Calov, Reinhard Cullather, Richard Dumas, Christophe Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R Gregory, Jonathan M Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C Kleiner, Thomas Larour, Eric Leguy, Gunter R Lowry, Daniel P Little, Chistopher M Morlighem, Mathieu Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Smith, Robin S Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Trusel, Luke D Van Breedam, Jonas Van Katwyk, Peter van de Wal, Roderik SW Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
author_facet |
Seroussi, Hélène Verjans, Vincent Nowicki, Sophie Payne, Antony J Goelzer, Heiko Lipscomb, William H Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Barthel, Alice Calov, Reinhard Cullather, Richard Dumas, Christophe Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R Gregory, Jonathan M Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C Kleiner, Thomas Larour, Eric Leguy, Gunter R Lowry, Daniel P Little, Chistopher M Morlighem, Mathieu Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Smith, Robin S Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Trusel, Luke D Van Breedam, Jonas Van Katwyk, Peter van de Wal, Roderik SW Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas |
author_sort |
Seroussi, Hélène |
title |
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
title_short |
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
title_full |
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
title_fullStr |
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
title_full_unstemmed |
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
title_sort |
insights into the vulnerability of antarctic glaciers from the ismip6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
publisher |
Copernicus GmbH |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3183123/ https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-101.000,-101.000,-75.000,-75.000) ENVELOPE(-64.250,-64.250,-84.450,-84.450) |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic East Antarctica West Antarctica Pine Island Glacier Whillans |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic East Antarctica West Antarctica Pine Island Glacier Whillans |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Pine Island Pine Island Glacier The Cryosphere West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Pine Island Pine Island Glacier The Cryosphere West Antarctica |
op_relation |
Collapse authors list. Seroussi, Hélène orcid:0000-0001-9201-1644 , Verjans, Vincent, Nowicki, Sophie orcid:0000-0001-6328-5590 , Payne, Antony J orcid:0000-0001-8825-8425 , Goelzer, Heiko orcid:0000-0002-5878-9599 , Lipscomb, William H orcid:0000-0002-7100-3730 , Abe-Ouchi, Ayako orcid:0000-0003-1745-5952 , Agosta, Cécile orcid:0000-0003-4091-1653 , Albrecht, Torsten orcid:0000-0001-7459-2860 , Asay-Davis, Xylar orcid:0000-0002-1990-892X et al (show 39 more authors) , Barthel, Alice orcid:0000-0002-2481-8646 , Calov, Reinhard, Cullather, Richard, Dumas, Christophe, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K orcid:0000-0003-1404-4103 , Gladstone, Rupert orcid:0000-0002-1582-3857 , Golledge, Nicholas R orcid:0000-0001-7676-8970 , Gregory, Jonathan M orcid:0000-0003-1296-8644 , Greve, Ralf orcid:0000-0002-1341-4777 , Hattermann, Tore orcid:0000-0002-5538-2267 , Hoffman, Matthew J orcid:0000-0001-5076-0540 , Humbert, Angelika orcid:0000-0002-0244-8760 , Huybrechts, Philippe orcid:0000-0003-1406-0525 , Jourdain, Nicolas C orcid:0000-0002-1372-2235 , Kleiner, Thomas orcid:0000-0001-7825-5765 , Larour, Eric, Leguy, Gunter R orcid:0000-0002-9963-8076 , Lowry, Daniel P orcid:0000-0002-9668-0850 , Little, Chistopher M, Morlighem, Mathieu orcid:0000-0001-5219-1310 , Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler orcid:0000-0002-9772-1730 , Price, Stephen F orcid:0000-0001-6878-2553 , Quiquet, Aurélien orcid:0000-0001-6207-3043 , Reese, Ronja orcid:0000-0001-7625-040X , Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne orcid:0000-0001-8035-448X , Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Smith, Robin S orcid:0000-0001-7479-7778 , Straneo, Fiammetta orcid:0000-0002-1735-2366 , Sun, Sainan orcid:0000-0002-1614-2658 , Trusel, Luke D orcid:0000-0002-7792-6173 , Van Breedam, Jonas orcid:0000-0003-1504-9520 , Van Katwyk, Peter, van de Wal, Roderik SW, Winkelmann, Ricarda orcid:0000-0003-1248-3217 , Zhao, Chen orcid:0000-0003-0368-1334 , Zhang, Tong and Zwinger, Thomas orcid:0000-0003-3360-4401 (2023) Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty. The Cryosphere, 17 (12). pp. 5197-5217. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
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container_issue |
12 |
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ftunivliverpool:oai:livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk:3183123 2024-09-09T19:03:21+00:00 Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty Seroussi, Hélène Verjans, Vincent Nowicki, Sophie Payne, Antony J Goelzer, Heiko Lipscomb, William H Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Barthel, Alice Calov, Reinhard Cullather, Richard Dumas, Christophe Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R Gregory, Jonathan M Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C Kleiner, Thomas Larour, Eric Leguy, Gunter R Lowry, Daniel P Little, Chistopher M Morlighem, Mathieu Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Smith, Robin S Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Trusel, Luke D Van Breedam, Jonas Van Katwyk, Peter van de Wal, Roderik SW Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas 2023-12-07 https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3183123/ https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 en eng Copernicus GmbH Collapse authors list. Seroussi, Hélène orcid:0000-0001-9201-1644 , Verjans, Vincent, Nowicki, Sophie orcid:0000-0001-6328-5590 , Payne, Antony J orcid:0000-0001-8825-8425 , Goelzer, Heiko orcid:0000-0002-5878-9599 , Lipscomb, William H orcid:0000-0002-7100-3730 , Abe-Ouchi, Ayako orcid:0000-0003-1745-5952 , Agosta, Cécile orcid:0000-0003-4091-1653 , Albrecht, Torsten orcid:0000-0001-7459-2860 , Asay-Davis, Xylar orcid:0000-0002-1990-892X et al (show 39 more authors) , Barthel, Alice orcid:0000-0002-2481-8646 , Calov, Reinhard, Cullather, Richard, Dumas, Christophe, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K orcid:0000-0003-1404-4103 , Gladstone, Rupert orcid:0000-0002-1582-3857 , Golledge, Nicholas R orcid:0000-0001-7676-8970 , Gregory, Jonathan M orcid:0000-0003-1296-8644 , Greve, Ralf orcid:0000-0002-1341-4777 , Hattermann, Tore orcid:0000-0002-5538-2267 , Hoffman, Matthew J orcid:0000-0001-5076-0540 , Humbert, Angelika orcid:0000-0002-0244-8760 , Huybrechts, Philippe orcid:0000-0003-1406-0525 , Jourdain, Nicolas C orcid:0000-0002-1372-2235 , Kleiner, Thomas orcid:0000-0001-7825-5765 , Larour, Eric, Leguy, Gunter R orcid:0000-0002-9963-8076 , Lowry, Daniel P orcid:0000-0002-9668-0850 , Little, Chistopher M, Morlighem, Mathieu orcid:0000-0001-5219-1310 , Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler orcid:0000-0002-9772-1730 , Price, Stephen F orcid:0000-0001-6878-2553 , Quiquet, Aurélien orcid:0000-0001-6207-3043 , Reese, Ronja orcid:0000-0001-7625-040X , Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne orcid:0000-0001-8035-448X , Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Smith, Robin S orcid:0000-0001-7479-7778 , Straneo, Fiammetta orcid:0000-0002-1735-2366 , Sun, Sainan orcid:0000-0002-1614-2658 , Trusel, Luke D orcid:0000-0002-7792-6173 , Van Breedam, Jonas orcid:0000-0003-1504-9520 , Van Katwyk, Peter, van de Wal, Roderik SW, Winkelmann, Ricarda orcid:0000-0003-1248-3217 , Zhao, Chen orcid:0000-0003-0368-1334 , Zhang, Tong and Zwinger, Thomas orcid:0000-0003-3360-4401 (2023) Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty. The Cryosphere, 17 (12). pp. 5197-5217. Article NonPeerReviewed 2023 ftunivliverpool https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 2024-07-29T14:06:56Z <jats:p>Abstract. The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Pine Island Pine Island Glacier The Cryosphere West Antarctica The University of Liverpool Repository Antarctic The Antarctic East Antarctica West Antarctica Pine Island Glacier ENVELOPE(-101.000,-101.000,-75.000,-75.000) Whillans ENVELOPE(-64.250,-64.250,-84.450,-84.450) The Cryosphere 17 12 5197 5217 |