Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces

Responses to future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions can be expected to vary between sectors and regions, reflecting differential sensitivity to these highly uncertain factors. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using a suite of impact models (for health, agriculture, biodiversity...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Published in:Regional Environmental Change
Main Authors: Fronzek, Stefan, Carter, Timothy R, Pirttioja, Nina, Alkemade, Rob, Audsley, Eric, Bugmann, Harald, Floerke, Martina, Holman, Ian, Honda, Yasushi, Ito, Akihiko, Janes-Bassett, Victoria, Lafond, Valentine, Leemans, Rik, Mokrech, Marc, Nunez, Sarahi, Sandars, Daniel, Snell, Rebecca, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Tanaka, Akemi, Wimmer, Florian, Yoshikawa, Minoru
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2019
Subjects:
Online Access:http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3157815/
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1421-8
http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3157815/1/2019%20Fronzek%20et%20al%20-%20Regional%20Environmental%20Change.pdf
id ftunivliverpool:oai:livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk:3157815
record_format openpolar
spelling ftunivliverpool:oai:livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk:3157815 2023-05-15T17:42:46+02:00 Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces Fronzek, Stefan Carter, Timothy R Pirttioja, Nina Alkemade, Rob Audsley, Eric Bugmann, Harald Floerke, Martina Holman, Ian Honda, Yasushi Ito, Akihiko Janes-Bassett, Victoria Lafond, Valentine Leemans, Rik Mokrech, Marc Nunez, Sarahi Sandars, Daniel Snell, Rebecca Takahashi, Kiyoshi Tanaka, Akemi Wimmer, Florian Yoshikawa, Minoru 2019 text http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3157815/ https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1421-8 http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3157815/1/2019%20Fronzek%20et%20al%20-%20Regional%20Environmental%20Change.pdf en eng Springer Science and Business Media LLC http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3157815/1/2019%20Fronzek%20et%20al%20-%20Regional%20Environmental%20Change.pdf Collapse authors list. Fronzek, Stefan, Carter, Timothy R, Pirttioja, Nina, Alkemade, Rob, Audsley, Eric, Bugmann, Harald, Floerke, Martina, Holman, Ian, Honda, Yasushi, Ito, Akihiko et al (show 11 more authors) , Janes-Bassett, Victoria orcid:0000-0002-4882-6202 , Lafond, Valentine, Leemans, Rik, Mokrech, Marc, Nunez, Sarahi, Sandars, Daniel, Snell, Rebecca, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Tanaka, Akemi, Wimmer, Florian and Yoshikawa, Minoru (2019) Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, 19 (3). pp. 679-693. Article NonPeerReviewed 2019 ftunivliverpool https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1421-8 2023-01-20T00:17:00Z Responses to future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions can be expected to vary between sectors and regions, reflecting differential sensitivity to these highly uncertain factors. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using a suite of impact models (for health, agriculture, biodiversity, land use, floods and forestry) across Europe with respect to changes in key climate and socio-economic variables. Depending on the indicators, aggregated grid or indicative site results are reported for eight rectangular sub-regions that together span Europe from northern Finland to southern Spain and from western Ireland to the Baltic States and eastern Mediterranean, each plotted as scenario-neutral impact response surfaces (IRSs). These depict the modelled behaviour of an impact variable in response to changes in two key explanatory variables. To our knowledge, this is the first time the IRS approach has been applied to changes in socio-economic drivers and over such large regions. The British Isles region showed the smallest sensitivity to both temperature and precipitation, whereas Central Europe showed the strongest responses to temperature and Eastern Europe to precipitation. Across the regions, sensitivity to temperature was lowest for the two indicators of river discharge and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Sensitivity to precipitation was lowest for intensive agricultural land use, maize and potato yields and Scots pine productivity, and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Under future climate projections, North-eastern Europe showed increases in yields of all crops and productivity of all tree species, whereas Central and East Europe showed declines. River discharge indicators and forest productivity (except Holm oak) were projected to decline over southern European regions. Responses were more sensitive to socio-economic than to climate drivers for some impact indicators, as demonstrated for heat-related mortality, coastal flooding and land use. Article in Journal/Newspaper Northern Finland The University of Liverpool Repository Norway Regional Environmental Change 19 3 679 693
institution Open Polar
collection The University of Liverpool Repository
op_collection_id ftunivliverpool
language English
description Responses to future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions can be expected to vary between sectors and regions, reflecting differential sensitivity to these highly uncertain factors. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using a suite of impact models (for health, agriculture, biodiversity, land use, floods and forestry) across Europe with respect to changes in key climate and socio-economic variables. Depending on the indicators, aggregated grid or indicative site results are reported for eight rectangular sub-regions that together span Europe from northern Finland to southern Spain and from western Ireland to the Baltic States and eastern Mediterranean, each plotted as scenario-neutral impact response surfaces (IRSs). These depict the modelled behaviour of an impact variable in response to changes in two key explanatory variables. To our knowledge, this is the first time the IRS approach has been applied to changes in socio-economic drivers and over such large regions. The British Isles region showed the smallest sensitivity to both temperature and precipitation, whereas Central Europe showed the strongest responses to temperature and Eastern Europe to precipitation. Across the regions, sensitivity to temperature was lowest for the two indicators of river discharge and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Sensitivity to precipitation was lowest for intensive agricultural land use, maize and potato yields and Scots pine productivity, and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Under future climate projections, North-eastern Europe showed increases in yields of all crops and productivity of all tree species, whereas Central and East Europe showed declines. River discharge indicators and forest productivity (except Holm oak) were projected to decline over southern European regions. Responses were more sensitive to socio-economic than to climate drivers for some impact indicators, as demonstrated for heat-related mortality, coastal flooding and land use.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Fronzek, Stefan
Carter, Timothy R
Pirttioja, Nina
Alkemade, Rob
Audsley, Eric
Bugmann, Harald
Floerke, Martina
Holman, Ian
Honda, Yasushi
Ito, Akihiko
Janes-Bassett, Victoria
Lafond, Valentine
Leemans, Rik
Mokrech, Marc
Nunez, Sarahi
Sandars, Daniel
Snell, Rebecca
Takahashi, Kiyoshi
Tanaka, Akemi
Wimmer, Florian
Yoshikawa, Minoru
spellingShingle Fronzek, Stefan
Carter, Timothy R
Pirttioja, Nina
Alkemade, Rob
Audsley, Eric
Bugmann, Harald
Floerke, Martina
Holman, Ian
Honda, Yasushi
Ito, Akihiko
Janes-Bassett, Victoria
Lafond, Valentine
Leemans, Rik
Mokrech, Marc
Nunez, Sarahi
Sandars, Daniel
Snell, Rebecca
Takahashi, Kiyoshi
Tanaka, Akemi
Wimmer, Florian
Yoshikawa, Minoru
Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces
author_facet Fronzek, Stefan
Carter, Timothy R
Pirttioja, Nina
Alkemade, Rob
Audsley, Eric
Bugmann, Harald
Floerke, Martina
Holman, Ian
Honda, Yasushi
Ito, Akihiko
Janes-Bassett, Victoria
Lafond, Valentine
Leemans, Rik
Mokrech, Marc
Nunez, Sarahi
Sandars, Daniel
Snell, Rebecca
Takahashi, Kiyoshi
Tanaka, Akemi
Wimmer, Florian
Yoshikawa, Minoru
author_sort Fronzek, Stefan
title Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces
title_short Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces
title_full Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces
title_fullStr Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces
title_full_unstemmed Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces
title_sort determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in europe using impact response surfaces
publisher Springer Science and Business Media LLC
publishDate 2019
url http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3157815/
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1421-8
http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3157815/1/2019%20Fronzek%20et%20al%20-%20Regional%20Environmental%20Change.pdf
geographic Norway
geographic_facet Norway
genre Northern Finland
genre_facet Northern Finland
op_relation http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3157815/1/2019%20Fronzek%20et%20al%20-%20Regional%20Environmental%20Change.pdf
Collapse authors list. Fronzek, Stefan, Carter, Timothy R, Pirttioja, Nina, Alkemade, Rob, Audsley, Eric, Bugmann, Harald, Floerke, Martina, Holman, Ian, Honda, Yasushi, Ito, Akihiko et al (show 11 more authors) , Janes-Bassett, Victoria orcid:0000-0002-4882-6202 , Lafond, Valentine, Leemans, Rik, Mokrech, Marc, Nunez, Sarahi, Sandars, Daniel, Snell, Rebecca, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Tanaka, Akemi, Wimmer, Florian and Yoshikawa, Minoru (2019) Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, 19 (3). pp. 679-693.
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1421-8
container_title Regional Environmental Change
container_volume 19
container_issue 3
container_start_page 679
op_container_end_page 693
_version_ 1766144681806135296