Assessing Uncertainty in the Dynamical Ice Response to Ocean Warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica
Ice mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment ice streams in West Antarctica is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. Physically based ice flow models rely on a number of parameters that represent unobservable quantities and processes, and accounting for uncertainty...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2019
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Online Access: | http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3093307/ https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl084941 http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3093307/1/GRL-R3.pdf |
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ftunivliverpool:oai:livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk:3093307 2023-05-15T13:23:43+02:00 Assessing Uncertainty in the Dynamical Ice Response to Ocean Warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica Nias, Isabel J Cornford, Stephen L Edwards, Tamsin L Gourmelen, Noel Payne, Antony J 2019 text http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3093307/ https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl084941 http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3093307/1/GRL-R3.pdf en eng American Geophysical Union (AGU) http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3093307/1/GRL-R3.pdf Nias, Isabel J orcid:0000-0002-5657-8691 , Cornford, Stephen L, Edwards, Tamsin L, Gourmelen, Noel and Payne, Antony J (2019) Assessing Uncertainty in the Dynamical Ice Response to Ocean Warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 46 (20). pp. 11253-11260. Article NonPeerReviewed 2019 ftunivliverpool https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl084941 2023-01-19T23:55:38Z Ice mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment ice streams in West Antarctica is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. Physically based ice flow models rely on a number of parameters that represent unobservable quantities and processes, and accounting for uncertainty in these parameters can lead to a wide range of dynamic responses. Here we perform a Bayesian calibration of a perturbed parameter ensemble, in which we score each ensemble member on its ability to match the magnitude and broad spatial pattern of present-day observations of ice sheet surface elevation change. We apply an idealized melt rate forcing to extend the most likely simulations forward to 2200. We find that diverging grounding line response between ensemble members drives an exaggeration in the upper tail of the distribution of sea level rise by 2200, demonstrating that extreme future outcomes cannot be excluded. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet West Antarctica The University of Liverpool Repository Amundsen Sea West Antarctica Geophysical Research Letters 46 20 11253 11260 |
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Open Polar |
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The University of Liverpool Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivliverpool |
language |
English |
description |
Ice mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment ice streams in West Antarctica is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. Physically based ice flow models rely on a number of parameters that represent unobservable quantities and processes, and accounting for uncertainty in these parameters can lead to a wide range of dynamic responses. Here we perform a Bayesian calibration of a perturbed parameter ensemble, in which we score each ensemble member on its ability to match the magnitude and broad spatial pattern of present-day observations of ice sheet surface elevation change. We apply an idealized melt rate forcing to extend the most likely simulations forward to 2200. We find that diverging grounding line response between ensemble members drives an exaggeration in the upper tail of the distribution of sea level rise by 2200, demonstrating that extreme future outcomes cannot be excluded. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nias, Isabel J Cornford, Stephen L Edwards, Tamsin L Gourmelen, Noel Payne, Antony J |
spellingShingle |
Nias, Isabel J Cornford, Stephen L Edwards, Tamsin L Gourmelen, Noel Payne, Antony J Assessing Uncertainty in the Dynamical Ice Response to Ocean Warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica |
author_facet |
Nias, Isabel J Cornford, Stephen L Edwards, Tamsin L Gourmelen, Noel Payne, Antony J |
author_sort |
Nias, Isabel J |
title |
Assessing Uncertainty in the Dynamical Ice Response to Ocean Warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica |
title_short |
Assessing Uncertainty in the Dynamical Ice Response to Ocean Warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica |
title_full |
Assessing Uncertainty in the Dynamical Ice Response to Ocean Warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica |
title_fullStr |
Assessing Uncertainty in the Dynamical Ice Response to Ocean Warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing Uncertainty in the Dynamical Ice Response to Ocean Warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica |
title_sort |
assessing uncertainty in the dynamical ice response to ocean warming in the amundsen sea embayment, west antarctica |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3093307/ https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl084941 http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3093307/1/GRL-R3.pdf |
geographic |
Amundsen Sea West Antarctica |
geographic_facet |
Amundsen Sea West Antarctica |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet West Antarctica |
op_relation |
http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3093307/1/GRL-R3.pdf Nias, Isabel J orcid:0000-0002-5657-8691 , Cornford, Stephen L, Edwards, Tamsin L, Gourmelen, Noel and Payne, Antony J (2019) Assessing Uncertainty in the Dynamical Ice Response to Ocean Warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 46 (20). pp. 11253-11260. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl084941 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
46 |
container_issue |
20 |
container_start_page |
11253 |
op_container_end_page |
11260 |
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1766374389422489600 |