Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes?
The ability of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to capture the statistical behavior of sea level (SL) fluctuations has been assessed at the local scale. To do so, we have compared scaling behavior of the SL fluctuations simulated in the historical runs of 36 CMIP5 AOGCMs to that...
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ftunivliverpool:oai:livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk:3074678 2023-05-15T17:32:24+02:00 Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes? Becker, M Karpytchev, M Marcos, M Jevrejeva, S Lennartz-Sassinek, S 2016-05-28 http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3074678/ https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl068971 en eng American Geophysical Union (AGU) Becker, M, Karpytchev, M, Marcos, M, Jevrejeva, S and Lennartz-Sassinek, S (2016) Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes? GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 43 (10). pp. 5176-5184. Article NonPeerReviewed 2016 ftunivliverpool https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl068971 2023-01-19T23:52:20Z The ability of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to capture the statistical behavior of sea level (SL) fluctuations has been assessed at the local scale. To do so, we have compared scaling behavior of the SL fluctuations simulated in the historical runs of 36 CMIP5 AOGCMs to that in the longest (>100 years) SL records from 23 tides gauges around the globe. The observed SL fluctuations are known to manifest a power law scaling. We have checked if the SL changes simulated in the AOGCM exhibit the same scaling properties and the long-term correlations as observed in the tide gauge records. We find that the majority of AOGCMs overestimates the scaling of SL fluctuations, particularly in the North Atlantic. Consequently, AOGCMs, routinely used to project regional SL rise, may underestimate the part of the externally driven SL rise, in particular the anthropogenic footprint, in the projections for the 21st century. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic The University of Liverpool Repository Geophysical Research Letters 43 10 5176 5184 |
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Open Polar |
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The University of Liverpool Repository |
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ftunivliverpool |
language |
English |
description |
The ability of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to capture the statistical behavior of sea level (SL) fluctuations has been assessed at the local scale. To do so, we have compared scaling behavior of the SL fluctuations simulated in the historical runs of 36 CMIP5 AOGCMs to that in the longest (>100 years) SL records from 23 tides gauges around the globe. The observed SL fluctuations are known to manifest a power law scaling. We have checked if the SL changes simulated in the AOGCM exhibit the same scaling properties and the long-term correlations as observed in the tide gauge records. We find that the majority of AOGCMs overestimates the scaling of SL fluctuations, particularly in the North Atlantic. Consequently, AOGCMs, routinely used to project regional SL rise, may underestimate the part of the externally driven SL rise, in particular the anthropogenic footprint, in the projections for the 21st century. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Becker, M Karpytchev, M Marcos, M Jevrejeva, S Lennartz-Sassinek, S |
spellingShingle |
Becker, M Karpytchev, M Marcos, M Jevrejeva, S Lennartz-Sassinek, S Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes? |
author_facet |
Becker, M Karpytchev, M Marcos, M Jevrejeva, S Lennartz-Sassinek, S |
author_sort |
Becker, M |
title |
Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes? |
title_short |
Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes? |
title_full |
Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes? |
title_fullStr |
Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes? |
title_sort |
do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes? |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3074678/ https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl068971 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Becker, M, Karpytchev, M, Marcos, M, Jevrejeva, S and Lennartz-Sassinek, S (2016) Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes? GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 43 (10). pp. 5176-5184. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl068971 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
43 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
5176 |
op_container_end_page |
5184 |
_version_ |
1766130505312370688 |