A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters
Arctic waters have historically been regarded as harsh environments owing to their extreme weather conditions and remoteness from land. The advantages of shorter sea routes and hydrocarbon energy exploitation have recently led to increased marine activities in such harsh environments. To ensure safe...
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Language: | English |
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2018
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Online Access: | http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3074663/ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2017.07.001 http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3074663/1/Fu%20et%20al%20%281%29.pdf |
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ftunivliverpool:oai:livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk:3074663 2023-05-15T14:25:05+02:00 A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters Fu, Shanshan Zhang, Di Montewka, Jakub Zio, Enrico Yan, Xinping 2018-08 text http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3074663/ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2017.07.001 http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3074663/1/Fu%20et%20al%20%281%29.pdf en eng Elsevier BV http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3074663/1/Fu%20et%20al%20%281%29.pdf Fu, Shanshan, Zhang, Di, Montewka, Jakub, Zio, Enrico and Yan, Xinping (2018) A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters. Safety Science, 107. pp. 145-154. Article NonPeerReviewed 2018 ftunivliverpool https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2017.07.001 2023-01-19T23:52:20Z Arctic waters have historically been regarded as harsh environments owing to their extreme weather conditions and remoteness from land. The advantages of shorter sea routes and hydrocarbon energy exploitation have recently led to increased marine activities in such harsh environments. To ensure safe operation within the area, the potential risks of ship accidents, need to be systematically analyzed, assessed and managed along with the associated uncertainties. The treatment of epistemic uncertainty in the likelihoods of adverse events due to lack of knowledge and information should also be considered. This paper presents a Frank copula-based fuzzy event tree analysis approach to assess the risks of major ship accidents in Arctic waters, taking uncertainty into consideration. The quantitative approach includes four steps, namely, accident scenario modeling by an event tree model, probability and dependence analysis of the associated intermediate events, risk assessment with respect to the consequent outcome events. A major ship accident in Arctic waters - ships stuck in ice, is chosen as a case to interpret the modeling process of the approach proposed. Crews and ships owners can use such approach to defining risk control options that enable optimal risk mitigation. Maritime management may also benefit from better risk assessment. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic The University of Liverpool Repository Arctic Safety Science 107 145 154 |
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Open Polar |
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The University of Liverpool Repository |
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ftunivliverpool |
language |
English |
description |
Arctic waters have historically been regarded as harsh environments owing to their extreme weather conditions and remoteness from land. The advantages of shorter sea routes and hydrocarbon energy exploitation have recently led to increased marine activities in such harsh environments. To ensure safe operation within the area, the potential risks of ship accidents, need to be systematically analyzed, assessed and managed along with the associated uncertainties. The treatment of epistemic uncertainty in the likelihoods of adverse events due to lack of knowledge and information should also be considered. This paper presents a Frank copula-based fuzzy event tree analysis approach to assess the risks of major ship accidents in Arctic waters, taking uncertainty into consideration. The quantitative approach includes four steps, namely, accident scenario modeling by an event tree model, probability and dependence analysis of the associated intermediate events, risk assessment with respect to the consequent outcome events. A major ship accident in Arctic waters - ships stuck in ice, is chosen as a case to interpret the modeling process of the approach proposed. Crews and ships owners can use such approach to defining risk control options that enable optimal risk mitigation. Maritime management may also benefit from better risk assessment. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fu, Shanshan Zhang, Di Montewka, Jakub Zio, Enrico Yan, Xinping |
spellingShingle |
Fu, Shanshan Zhang, Di Montewka, Jakub Zio, Enrico Yan, Xinping A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters |
author_facet |
Fu, Shanshan Zhang, Di Montewka, Jakub Zio, Enrico Yan, Xinping |
author_sort |
Fu, Shanshan |
title |
A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters |
title_short |
A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters |
title_full |
A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters |
title_fullStr |
A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters |
title_full_unstemmed |
A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters |
title_sort |
quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in arctic waters |
publisher |
Elsevier BV |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3074663/ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2017.07.001 http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3074663/1/Fu%20et%20al%20%281%29.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic |
op_relation |
http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3074663/1/Fu%20et%20al%20%281%29.pdf Fu, Shanshan, Zhang, Di, Montewka, Jakub, Zio, Enrico and Yan, Xinping (2018) A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters. Safety Science, 107. pp. 145-154. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2017.07.001 |
container_title |
Safety Science |
container_volume |
107 |
container_start_page |
145 |
op_container_end_page |
154 |
_version_ |
1766297518513061888 |