Unanticipated biological changes and global warming
International audience Evidence of global warming is now unequivocal, and studies suggest that it has started to influence natural systems of the planet, including the oceans. However, in the marine environment, it is well-known that species and ecosystems can also be influenced by natural sources o...
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-00800176 https://hal.science/hal-00800176/document https://hal.science/hal-00800176/file/m445p293.pdf https://doi.org/10.3354/meps09493 |
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ftunivlille:oai:HAL:hal-00800176v1 2024-06-23T07:51:54+00:00 Unanticipated biological changes and global warming Beaugrand, Gregory Laboratoire d’Océanologie et de Géosciences (LOG) - UMR 8187 (LOG) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale (ULCO)-Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Nord ) 2012-01-20 https://hal.science/hal-00800176 https://hal.science/hal-00800176/document https://hal.science/hal-00800176/file/m445p293.pdf https://doi.org/10.3354/meps09493 en eng HAL CCSD Inter Research info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3354/meps09493 hal-00800176 https://hal.science/hal-00800176 https://hal.science/hal-00800176/document https://hal.science/hal-00800176/file/m445p293.pdf doi:10.3354/meps09493 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0171-8630 EISSN: 1616-1599 Marine Ecology Progress Series https://hal.science/hal-00800176 Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2012, 445, pp.293-301. ⟨10.3354/meps09493⟩ [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2012 ftunivlille https://doi.org/10.3354/meps09493 2024-06-10T14:58:07Z International audience Evidence of global warming is now unequivocal, and studies suggest that it has started to influence natural systems of the planet, including the oceans. However, in the marine environment, it is well-known that species and ecosystems can also be influenced by natural sources of large-scale hydro-climatological variability. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was negatively correlated with the mean abundance of one of the subarctic key species Calanus finmarchicus in the North Sea. This correlation was thought to have broken down in 1996, however, the timing has never been tested statistically. The present study revisits this unanticipated change and reveals that the correlation did not break down in 1996 as originally proposed but earlier, at the time of an abrupt ecosystem shift in the North Sea in the 1980s. Furthermore, the analyses demonstrate that the correlation between the NAO and C. finmarchicus abundance is modulated by the thermal regime of the North Sea, which in turn covaries positively with global temperature anomalies. This study thereby provides evidence that global climate change is likely to alter some empirical relationships found in the past between species abundance or the ecosystem state and large-scale natural sources of hydro-climatological variability. A theory is proposed to explain how this might happen. These unanticipated changes, also called 'surprises' in climatic research, are a direct consequence of the complexity of both climatic and biological systems. In this period of rapid climate change, it is therefore hazardous to integrate meteo-oceanic indices such as the NAO in models used in the management of living resources, as it has been sometimes attempted in the past. Article in Journal/Newspaper Calanus finmarchicus North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Subarctic LillOA (HAL Lille Open Archive, Université de Lille) Marine Ecology Progress Series 445 293 301 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
LillOA (HAL Lille Open Archive, Université de Lille) |
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ftunivlille |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography Beaugrand, Gregory Unanticipated biological changes and global warming |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography |
description |
International audience Evidence of global warming is now unequivocal, and studies suggest that it has started to influence natural systems of the planet, including the oceans. However, in the marine environment, it is well-known that species and ecosystems can also be influenced by natural sources of large-scale hydro-climatological variability. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was negatively correlated with the mean abundance of one of the subarctic key species Calanus finmarchicus in the North Sea. This correlation was thought to have broken down in 1996, however, the timing has never been tested statistically. The present study revisits this unanticipated change and reveals that the correlation did not break down in 1996 as originally proposed but earlier, at the time of an abrupt ecosystem shift in the North Sea in the 1980s. Furthermore, the analyses demonstrate that the correlation between the NAO and C. finmarchicus abundance is modulated by the thermal regime of the North Sea, which in turn covaries positively with global temperature anomalies. This study thereby provides evidence that global climate change is likely to alter some empirical relationships found in the past between species abundance or the ecosystem state and large-scale natural sources of hydro-climatological variability. A theory is proposed to explain how this might happen. These unanticipated changes, also called 'surprises' in climatic research, are a direct consequence of the complexity of both climatic and biological systems. In this period of rapid climate change, it is therefore hazardous to integrate meteo-oceanic indices such as the NAO in models used in the management of living resources, as it has been sometimes attempted in the past. |
author2 |
Laboratoire d’Océanologie et de Géosciences (LOG) - UMR 8187 (LOG) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale (ULCO)-Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Nord ) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Beaugrand, Gregory |
author_facet |
Beaugrand, Gregory |
author_sort |
Beaugrand, Gregory |
title |
Unanticipated biological changes and global warming |
title_short |
Unanticipated biological changes and global warming |
title_full |
Unanticipated biological changes and global warming |
title_fullStr |
Unanticipated biological changes and global warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Unanticipated biological changes and global warming |
title_sort |
unanticipated biological changes and global warming |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-00800176 https://hal.science/hal-00800176/document https://hal.science/hal-00800176/file/m445p293.pdf https://doi.org/10.3354/meps09493 |
genre |
Calanus finmarchicus North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Subarctic |
genre_facet |
Calanus finmarchicus North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Subarctic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0171-8630 EISSN: 1616-1599 Marine Ecology Progress Series https://hal.science/hal-00800176 Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2012, 445, pp.293-301. ⟨10.3354/meps09493⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3354/meps09493 hal-00800176 https://hal.science/hal-00800176 https://hal.science/hal-00800176/document https://hal.science/hal-00800176/file/m445p293.pdf doi:10.3354/meps09493 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3354/meps09493 |
container_title |
Marine Ecology Progress Series |
container_volume |
445 |
container_start_page |
293 |
op_container_end_page |
301 |
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1802643050570186752 |