Improving forecasts of arctic-alpine refugia persistence with landscape-scale variables
Refugia, the sites preserving conditions reminiscent of suitable climates, are projected to be crucial for species in a changing climate, particularly at high latitudes. However, the knowledge of current locations of high-latitude refugia and particularly their ability to retain suitable conditions...
Published in: | Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography |
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Language: | English |
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ftunivlausanne:oai:serval.unil.ch:BIB_DD99ABC2D57E 2024-02-11T10:00:37+01:00 Improving forecasts of arctic-alpine refugia persistence with landscape-scale variables Niskanen, A. K. J. Heikkinen, R.K. Mod, H.K. Väre, H. Luoto, M. 2017-01-02 https://serval.unil.ch/notice/serval:BIB_DD99ABC2D57E https://doi.org/10.1080/04353676.2016.1256746 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1080/04353676.2016.1256746 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/1468-0459 https://serval.unil.ch/notice/serval:BIB_DD99ABC2D57E doi:10.1080/04353676.2016.1256746 urn:issn:0435-3676 Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, vol. 99, no. 1, pp. 2-14 Climate change refugia landscape-scale factor info:eu-repo/semantics/article article 2017 ftunivlausanne https://doi.org/10.1080/04353676.2016.1256746 2024-01-22T00:57:13Z Refugia, the sites preserving conditions reminiscent of suitable climates, are projected to be crucial for species in a changing climate, particularly at high latitudes. However, the knowledge of current locations of high-latitude refugia and particularly their ability to retain suitable conditions under future climatic changes is limited. Occurrences of refugia have previously been mainly assessed and modelled based solely on climatic features, with insufficient attention being paid to potentially important landscape-scale factors. Here, climate-only models and full' models incorporating topo-edaphic landscape-scale variables (radiation, soil moisture and calcareousness) were developed and compared for 111 arctic-alpine plant species in Northern Fennoscandia. This was done for both current and future climates to determine cells with resilient climatic suitability harbouring refugia. Our results show that topographic and edaphic landscape-scale predictors both significantly improve models of arctic-alpine species distributions and alter projections of refugia occurrence. The predictions of species-climate models ignore landscape-scale ecological processes and may thus provide inaccurate estimates of extinction risk and forecasts of refugia where species can persist under a changing climate. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Fennoscandia Université de Lausanne (UNIL): Serval - Serveur académique lausannois Arctic Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography 99 1 2 14 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Lausanne (UNIL): Serval - Serveur académique lausannois |
op_collection_id |
ftunivlausanne |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate change refugia landscape-scale factor |
spellingShingle |
Climate change refugia landscape-scale factor Niskanen, A. K. J. Heikkinen, R.K. Mod, H.K. Väre, H. Luoto, M. Improving forecasts of arctic-alpine refugia persistence with landscape-scale variables |
topic_facet |
Climate change refugia landscape-scale factor |
description |
Refugia, the sites preserving conditions reminiscent of suitable climates, are projected to be crucial for species in a changing climate, particularly at high latitudes. However, the knowledge of current locations of high-latitude refugia and particularly their ability to retain suitable conditions under future climatic changes is limited. Occurrences of refugia have previously been mainly assessed and modelled based solely on climatic features, with insufficient attention being paid to potentially important landscape-scale factors. Here, climate-only models and full' models incorporating topo-edaphic landscape-scale variables (radiation, soil moisture and calcareousness) were developed and compared for 111 arctic-alpine plant species in Northern Fennoscandia. This was done for both current and future climates to determine cells with resilient climatic suitability harbouring refugia. Our results show that topographic and edaphic landscape-scale predictors both significantly improve models of arctic-alpine species distributions and alter projections of refugia occurrence. The predictions of species-climate models ignore landscape-scale ecological processes and may thus provide inaccurate estimates of extinction risk and forecasts of refugia where species can persist under a changing climate. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Niskanen, A. K. J. Heikkinen, R.K. Mod, H.K. Väre, H. Luoto, M. |
author_facet |
Niskanen, A. K. J. Heikkinen, R.K. Mod, H.K. Väre, H. Luoto, M. |
author_sort |
Niskanen, A. K. J. |
title |
Improving forecasts of arctic-alpine refugia persistence with landscape-scale variables |
title_short |
Improving forecasts of arctic-alpine refugia persistence with landscape-scale variables |
title_full |
Improving forecasts of arctic-alpine refugia persistence with landscape-scale variables |
title_fullStr |
Improving forecasts of arctic-alpine refugia persistence with landscape-scale variables |
title_full_unstemmed |
Improving forecasts of arctic-alpine refugia persistence with landscape-scale variables |
title_sort |
improving forecasts of arctic-alpine refugia persistence with landscape-scale variables |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://serval.unil.ch/notice/serval:BIB_DD99ABC2D57E https://doi.org/10.1080/04353676.2016.1256746 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Fennoscandia |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Fennoscandia |
op_source |
Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, vol. 99, no. 1, pp. 2-14 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1080/04353676.2016.1256746 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/1468-0459 https://serval.unil.ch/notice/serval:BIB_DD99ABC2D57E doi:10.1080/04353676.2016.1256746 urn:issn:0435-3676 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1080/04353676.2016.1256746 |
container_title |
Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography |
container_volume |
99 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
2 |
op_container_end_page |
14 |
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1790596322707898368 |