The relationship between Lamb weather types and long-term changes in flood frequency, River Eden, UK
Research has found that both flood magnitude and frequency in the UK may have increased over the last five decades. However, evaluating whether or not this is a systematic trend is difficult because of the lack of longer records. Here we compile and consider an extreme flood record that extends back...
Published in: | International Journal of Climatology |
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ftunivlausanne:oai:serval.unil.ch:BIB_BF447A634BD8 2024-02-11T10:06:38+01:00 The relationship between Lamb weather types and long-term changes in flood frequency, River Eden, UK Pattison, I. Lane, S.N. 2012 https://serval.unil.ch/notice/serval:BIB_BF447A634BD8 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2415 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/joc.2415 https://serval.unil.ch/notice/serval:BIB_BF447A634BD8 doi:10.1002/joc.2415 urn:issn:0899-8418 International Journal of Climatology, vol. 32, no. 13, pp. 1971-1989 info:eu-repo/semantics/article article 2012 ftunivlausanne https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2415 2024-01-22T01:00:10Z Research has found that both flood magnitude and frequency in the UK may have increased over the last five decades. However, evaluating whether or not this is a systematic trend is difficult because of the lack of longer records. Here we compile and consider an extreme flood record that extends back to 1770. Since 1770, there have been 137 recorded extreme floods. However, over this period, there is not a unidirectional trend of rising extreme flood risk over time. Instead, there are clear flood-rich and flood-poor periods. Three main flood-rich periods were identified: 18731904, 19231933, and 1994 onwards. To provide a first analysis of what is driving these periods, and given the paucity of more sophisticated datasets that extend back to the 18th century, objective Lamb weather types were used. Of the 27 objective Lamb weather types, only 11 could be associated with the extreme floods during the gauged period, and only 5 of these accounted for > 80% of recorded extreme floods The importance of these five weather types over a longer timescale for flood risk in Carlisle was assessed, through calculating the proportion of each hydrological year classified as being associated with these flood-generating weather types. Two periods clearly had more than the average proportions of the year classified as one of the flood causing weather types; 19001940 and 19832007; and these two periods both contained flood-rich hydrological records. Thus, the analysis suggests that systematic organisation of the North Atlantic climate system may be manifest as periods of elevated and reduced flood risk, an observation that has major implications for analyses that assume that climatic drivers of flood risk can be either statistically stationary or are following a simple trend. Copyright (c) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Université de Lausanne (UNIL): Serval - Serveur académique lausannois International Journal of Climatology 32 13 1971 1989 |
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Université de Lausanne (UNIL): Serval - Serveur académique lausannois |
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ftunivlausanne |
language |
English |
description |
Research has found that both flood magnitude and frequency in the UK may have increased over the last five decades. However, evaluating whether or not this is a systematic trend is difficult because of the lack of longer records. Here we compile and consider an extreme flood record that extends back to 1770. Since 1770, there have been 137 recorded extreme floods. However, over this period, there is not a unidirectional trend of rising extreme flood risk over time. Instead, there are clear flood-rich and flood-poor periods. Three main flood-rich periods were identified: 18731904, 19231933, and 1994 onwards. To provide a first analysis of what is driving these periods, and given the paucity of more sophisticated datasets that extend back to the 18th century, objective Lamb weather types were used. Of the 27 objective Lamb weather types, only 11 could be associated with the extreme floods during the gauged period, and only 5 of these accounted for > 80% of recorded extreme floods The importance of these five weather types over a longer timescale for flood risk in Carlisle was assessed, through calculating the proportion of each hydrological year classified as being associated with these flood-generating weather types. Two periods clearly had more than the average proportions of the year classified as one of the flood causing weather types; 19001940 and 19832007; and these two periods both contained flood-rich hydrological records. Thus, the analysis suggests that systematic organisation of the North Atlantic climate system may be manifest as periods of elevated and reduced flood risk, an observation that has major implications for analyses that assume that climatic drivers of flood risk can be either statistically stationary or are following a simple trend. Copyright (c) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Pattison, I. Lane, S.N. |
spellingShingle |
Pattison, I. Lane, S.N. The relationship between Lamb weather types and long-term changes in flood frequency, River Eden, UK |
author_facet |
Pattison, I. Lane, S.N. |
author_sort |
Pattison, I. |
title |
The relationship between Lamb weather types and long-term changes in flood frequency, River Eden, UK |
title_short |
The relationship between Lamb weather types and long-term changes in flood frequency, River Eden, UK |
title_full |
The relationship between Lamb weather types and long-term changes in flood frequency, River Eden, UK |
title_fullStr |
The relationship between Lamb weather types and long-term changes in flood frequency, River Eden, UK |
title_full_unstemmed |
The relationship between Lamb weather types and long-term changes in flood frequency, River Eden, UK |
title_sort |
relationship between lamb weather types and long-term changes in flood frequency, river eden, uk |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://serval.unil.ch/notice/serval:BIB_BF447A634BD8 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2415 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology, vol. 32, no. 13, pp. 1971-1989 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/joc.2415 https://serval.unil.ch/notice/serval:BIB_BF447A634BD8 doi:10.1002/joc.2415 urn:issn:0899-8418 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2415 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
32 |
container_issue |
13 |
container_start_page |
1971 |
op_container_end_page |
1989 |
_version_ |
1790604467107790848 |