Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation
Climate change has been observed to expand distributions of woody plants in many areas of arctic and alpine environments-a phenomenon called shrubification. New spatial arrangements of shrubs cause further changes in vegetation via changing dynamics of biotic interactions. However, the mediating inf...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Language: | English |
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Online Access: | https://serval.unil.ch/notice/serval:BIB_77A042CA3E84 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124028 https://serval.unil.ch/resource/serval:BIB_77A042CA3E84.P001/REF.pdf http://nbn-resolving.org/urn/resolver.pl?urn=urn:nbn:ch:serval-BIB_77A042CA3E848 |
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ftunivlausanne:oai:serval.unil.ch:BIB_77A042CA3E84 2024-02-11T10:01:02+01:00 Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation Mod, H.K. Luoto, M. 2016 application/pdf https://serval.unil.ch/notice/serval:BIB_77A042CA3E84 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124028 https://serval.unil.ch/resource/serval:BIB_77A042CA3E84.P001/REF.pdf http://nbn-resolving.org/urn/resolver.pl?urn=urn:nbn:ch:serval-BIB_77A042CA3E848 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124028 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/1748-9326 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/urn/urn:nbn:ch:serval-BIB_77A042CA3E848 https://serval.unil.ch/notice/serval:BIB_77A042CA3E84 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124028 https://serval.unil.ch/resource/serval:BIB_77A042CA3E84.P001/REF.pdf http://nbn-resolving.org/urn/resolver.pl?urn=urn:nbn:ch:serval-BIB_77A042CA3E848 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Copying allowed only for non-profit organizations https://serval.unil.ch/disclaimer Environmental Research Letters, vol. 11, no. 12, pp. 124028 biotic interactions climate change shrub spatial modelling tundra vegetation info:eu-repo/semantics/article article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2016 ftunivlausanne https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124028 2024-01-22T01:06:11Z Climate change has been observed to expand distributions of woody plants in many areas of arctic and alpine environments-a phenomenon called shrubification. New spatial arrangements of shrubs cause further changes in vegetation via changing dynamics of biotic interactions. However, the mediating influence of shrubification is rarely acknowledged in predictions of tundra vegetation change. Here, we examine possible warming-induced landscape-level vegetation changes in a high-latitude environment using species distribution modelling (SDM), specifically concentrating on the impacts of shrubification on ambient vegetation. First, we produced estimates of current shrub and tree cover and forecasts of their expansion under climate change scenarios to be incorporated to SDMs of 116 vascular plants. Second, the predictions of vegetation change based on the models including only abiotic predictors and the models including abiotic, shrub and tree predictors were compared in a representative test area. Based on our model predictions, abundance of woody plants will expand, thus decreasing predicted species richness, amplifying species turnover and increasing the local extinction risk for ambient vegetation. However, the spatial variation demonstrated in our predictions highlights that tundra vegetation can be expected to show a wide variety of different responses to the combined effects of warming and shrubification, depending on the original plant species pool and environmental conditions. We conclude that realistic forecasts of the future require acknowledging the role of shrubification in warming-induced tundra vegetation change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Tundra Université de Lausanne (UNIL): Serval - Serveur académique lausannois Arctic Environmental Research Letters 11 12 124028 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Lausanne (UNIL): Serval - Serveur académique lausannois |
op_collection_id |
ftunivlausanne |
language |
English |
topic |
biotic interactions climate change shrub spatial modelling tundra vegetation |
spellingShingle |
biotic interactions climate change shrub spatial modelling tundra vegetation Mod, H.K. Luoto, M. Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation |
topic_facet |
biotic interactions climate change shrub spatial modelling tundra vegetation |
description |
Climate change has been observed to expand distributions of woody plants in many areas of arctic and alpine environments-a phenomenon called shrubification. New spatial arrangements of shrubs cause further changes in vegetation via changing dynamics of biotic interactions. However, the mediating influence of shrubification is rarely acknowledged in predictions of tundra vegetation change. Here, we examine possible warming-induced landscape-level vegetation changes in a high-latitude environment using species distribution modelling (SDM), specifically concentrating on the impacts of shrubification on ambient vegetation. First, we produced estimates of current shrub and tree cover and forecasts of their expansion under climate change scenarios to be incorporated to SDMs of 116 vascular plants. Second, the predictions of vegetation change based on the models including only abiotic predictors and the models including abiotic, shrub and tree predictors were compared in a representative test area. Based on our model predictions, abundance of woody plants will expand, thus decreasing predicted species richness, amplifying species turnover and increasing the local extinction risk for ambient vegetation. However, the spatial variation demonstrated in our predictions highlights that tundra vegetation can be expected to show a wide variety of different responses to the combined effects of warming and shrubification, depending on the original plant species pool and environmental conditions. We conclude that realistic forecasts of the future require acknowledging the role of shrubification in warming-induced tundra vegetation change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mod, H.K. Luoto, M. |
author_facet |
Mod, H.K. Luoto, M. |
author_sort |
Mod, H.K. |
title |
Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation |
title_short |
Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation |
title_full |
Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation |
title_fullStr |
Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation |
title_sort |
arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://serval.unil.ch/notice/serval:BIB_77A042CA3E84 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124028 https://serval.unil.ch/resource/serval:BIB_77A042CA3E84.P001/REF.pdf http://nbn-resolving.org/urn/resolver.pl?urn=urn:nbn:ch:serval-BIB_77A042CA3E848 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Tundra |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Tundra |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, vol. 11, no. 12, pp. 124028 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124028 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/1748-9326 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/urn/urn:nbn:ch:serval-BIB_77A042CA3E848 https://serval.unil.ch/notice/serval:BIB_77A042CA3E84 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124028 https://serval.unil.ch/resource/serval:BIB_77A042CA3E84.P001/REF.pdf http://nbn-resolving.org/urn/resolver.pl?urn=urn:nbn:ch:serval-BIB_77A042CA3E848 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Copying allowed only for non-profit organizations https://serval.unil.ch/disclaimer |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124028 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
124028 |
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1790596771051732992 |