Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts
Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of forecast skill for surface climate on subseasonal to seasonal...
Published in: | Geoscientific Model Development |
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ftunivlausanne:oai:serval.unil.ch:BIB_58BAE56B94B5 2024-02-11T09:58:39+01:00 Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts Hitchcock, Peter Butler, Amy Charlton-Perez, Andrew Garfinkel, Chaim I. Stockdale, Tim Anstey, James Mitchell, Dann Domeisen, Daniela I. V. Wu, Tongwen Lu, Yixiong Mastrangelo, Daniele Malguzzi, Piero Lin, Hai Muncaster, Ryan Merryfield, Bill Sigmond, Michael Xiang, Baoqiang Jia, Liwei Hyun, Yu-Kyung Oh, Jiyoung Specq, Damien Simpson, Isla R. Richter, Jadwiga H. Barton, Cory Knight, Jeff Lim, Eun-Pa Hendon, Harry 2022-07-04 application/pdf https://serval.unil.ch/notice/serval:BIB_58BAE56B94B5 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 https://serval.unil.ch/resource/serval:BIB_58BAE56B94B5.P001/REF.pdf http://nbn-resolving.org/urn/resolver.pl?urn=urn:nbn:ch:serval-BIB_58BAE56B94B58 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/1991-9603 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/SNF//PP00P2_170523/// info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/SNF//PP00P2_198896/// info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/urn/urn:nbn:ch:serval-BIB_58BAE56B94B58 https://serval.unil.ch/notice/serval:BIB_58BAE56B94B5 doi:10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 https://serval.unil.ch/resource/serval:BIB_58BAE56B94B5.P001/REF.pdf http://nbn-resolving.org/urn/resolver.pl?urn=urn:nbn:ch:serval-BIB_58BAE56B94B58 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Geoscientific Model Development, vol. 15, no. 13, pp. 5073-5092 Pharmacology (medical) info:eu-repo/semantics/article article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2022 ftunivlausanne https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 2024-01-22T01:09:24Z Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of forecast skill for surface climate on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Realizing this skill in operational subseasonal forecast models remains a challenge, as models must capture both the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortices in addition to their coupling to the troposphere. The processes involved in this coupling remain a topic of open research. We present here the Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project. SNAPSI is a new model intercomparison protocol designed to study the role of the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex disturbances for surface predictability in subseasonal to seasonal forecast models. Based on a set of controlled, subseasonal ensemble forecasts of three recent events, the protocol aims to address four main scientific goals. First, to quantify the impact of improved stratospheric forecasts on near-surface forecast skill. Second, to attribute specific extreme events to stratospheric variability. Third, to assess the mechanisms by which the stratosphere influences the troposphere in the forecast models. Fourth, to investigate the wave processes that lead to the stratospheric anomalies themselves. Although not a primary focus, the experiments are furthermore expected to shed light on coupling between the tropical stratosphere and troposphere. The output requested will allow for a more detailed, process-based community analysis than has been possible with existing databases of subseasonal forecasts. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Université de Lausanne (UNIL): Serval - Serveur académique lausannois Antarctic Arctic Geoscientific Model Development 15 13 5073 5092 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Lausanne (UNIL): Serval - Serveur académique lausannois |
op_collection_id |
ftunivlausanne |
language |
English |
topic |
Pharmacology (medical) |
spellingShingle |
Pharmacology (medical) Hitchcock, Peter Butler, Amy Charlton-Perez, Andrew Garfinkel, Chaim I. Stockdale, Tim Anstey, James Mitchell, Dann Domeisen, Daniela I. V. Wu, Tongwen Lu, Yixiong Mastrangelo, Daniele Malguzzi, Piero Lin, Hai Muncaster, Ryan Merryfield, Bill Sigmond, Michael Xiang, Baoqiang Jia, Liwei Hyun, Yu-Kyung Oh, Jiyoung Specq, Damien Simpson, Isla R. Richter, Jadwiga H. Barton, Cory Knight, Jeff Lim, Eun-Pa Hendon, Harry Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
topic_facet |
Pharmacology (medical) |
description |
Major disruptions of the winter season, high-latitude stratospheric polar vortices can result in stratospheric anomalies that persist for months. These sudden stratospheric warming events are recognized as an important potential source of forecast skill for surface climate on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Realizing this skill in operational subseasonal forecast models remains a challenge, as models must capture both the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortices in addition to their coupling to the troposphere. The processes involved in this coupling remain a topic of open research. We present here the Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project. SNAPSI is a new model intercomparison protocol designed to study the role of the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex disturbances for surface predictability in subseasonal to seasonal forecast models. Based on a set of controlled, subseasonal ensemble forecasts of three recent events, the protocol aims to address four main scientific goals. First, to quantify the impact of improved stratospheric forecasts on near-surface forecast skill. Second, to attribute specific extreme events to stratospheric variability. Third, to assess the mechanisms by which the stratosphere influences the troposphere in the forecast models. Fourth, to investigate the wave processes that lead to the stratospheric anomalies themselves. Although not a primary focus, the experiments are furthermore expected to shed light on coupling between the tropical stratosphere and troposphere. The output requested will allow for a more detailed, process-based community analysis than has been possible with existing databases of subseasonal forecasts. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hitchcock, Peter Butler, Amy Charlton-Perez, Andrew Garfinkel, Chaim I. Stockdale, Tim Anstey, James Mitchell, Dann Domeisen, Daniela I. V. Wu, Tongwen Lu, Yixiong Mastrangelo, Daniele Malguzzi, Piero Lin, Hai Muncaster, Ryan Merryfield, Bill Sigmond, Michael Xiang, Baoqiang Jia, Liwei Hyun, Yu-Kyung Oh, Jiyoung Specq, Damien Simpson, Isla R. Richter, Jadwiga H. Barton, Cory Knight, Jeff Lim, Eun-Pa Hendon, Harry |
author_facet |
Hitchcock, Peter Butler, Amy Charlton-Perez, Andrew Garfinkel, Chaim I. Stockdale, Tim Anstey, James Mitchell, Dann Domeisen, Daniela I. V. Wu, Tongwen Lu, Yixiong Mastrangelo, Daniele Malguzzi, Piero Lin, Hai Muncaster, Ryan Merryfield, Bill Sigmond, Michael Xiang, Baoqiang Jia, Liwei Hyun, Yu-Kyung Oh, Jiyoung Specq, Damien Simpson, Isla R. Richter, Jadwiga H. Barton, Cory Knight, Jeff Lim, Eun-Pa Hendon, Harry |
author_sort |
Hitchcock, Peter |
title |
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
title_short |
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
title_full |
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
title_fullStr |
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
title_sort |
stratospheric nudging and predictable surface impacts (snapsi): a protocol for investigating the role of stratospheric polar vortex disturbances in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://serval.unil.ch/notice/serval:BIB_58BAE56B94B5 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 https://serval.unil.ch/resource/serval:BIB_58BAE56B94B5.P001/REF.pdf http://nbn-resolving.org/urn/resolver.pl?urn=urn:nbn:ch:serval-BIB_58BAE56B94B58 |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic |
op_source |
Geoscientific Model Development, vol. 15, no. 13, pp. 5073-5092 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/1991-9603 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/SNF//PP00P2_170523/// info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/SNF//PP00P2_198896/// info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/urn/urn:nbn:ch:serval-BIB_58BAE56B94B58 https://serval.unil.ch/notice/serval:BIB_58BAE56B94B5 doi:10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 https://serval.unil.ch/resource/serval:BIB_58BAE56B94B5.P001/REF.pdf http://nbn-resolving.org/urn/resolver.pl?urn=urn:nbn:ch:serval-BIB_58BAE56B94B58 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC BY 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022 |
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