Is the North Atlantic oscillation just a pink noise?
In this paper the authors address the problem of predictability for the NAO index series. The spectral analysis, completed with a bootstrap procedure, shows a rather featureless structure of the index. In other words, the actual time series could be a realisation of many different stochastic process...
Published in: | Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications |
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10553/43909 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4371(03)00056-6 |
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ftunivlaspalmas:oai:https://accedacris.ulpgc.es:10553/43909 2023-05-15T17:31:12+02:00 Is the North Atlantic oscillation just a pink noise? Fernández, Isabel Hernández Flores, Carmen N. Pacheco Castelao, José Miguel 8973113600 57198177387 24741104100 2003 http://hdl.handle.net/10553/43909 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4371(03)00056-6 eng eng Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 0378-4371 http://hdl.handle.net/10553/43909 doi:10.1016/S0378-4371(03)00056-6 17044459727 714 705 323 Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications [ISSN 0378-4371], v. 323, p. 705-714 12 Matemáticas 250207 Climatología regional NOA 2003 ftunivlaspalmas https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4371(03)00056-6 2019-09-08T16:41:39Z In this paper the authors address the problem of predictability for the NAO index series. The spectral analysis, completed with a bootstrap procedure, shows a rather featureless structure of the index. In other words, the actual time series could be a realisation of many different stochastic processes. An analysis of the Hurst exponent does suggest a slightly red noise as a model for the index, which is interpreted as the NAO being driven by meteorological noise. A nonlinear study of the series (embedding dimension, fractal correlation dimension and leading Lyapunov exponent) shows little predictive performance as well. Other/Unknown Material North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria: Acceda Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 323 705 714 |
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Open Polar |
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Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria: Acceda |
op_collection_id |
ftunivlaspalmas |
language |
English |
topic |
12 Matemáticas 250207 Climatología regional NOA |
spellingShingle |
12 Matemáticas 250207 Climatología regional NOA Fernández, Isabel Hernández Flores, Carmen N. Pacheco Castelao, José Miguel Is the North Atlantic oscillation just a pink noise? |
topic_facet |
12 Matemáticas 250207 Climatología regional NOA |
description |
In this paper the authors address the problem of predictability for the NAO index series. The spectral analysis, completed with a bootstrap procedure, shows a rather featureless structure of the index. In other words, the actual time series could be a realisation of many different stochastic processes. An analysis of the Hurst exponent does suggest a slightly red noise as a model for the index, which is interpreted as the NAO being driven by meteorological noise. A nonlinear study of the series (embedding dimension, fractal correlation dimension and leading Lyapunov exponent) shows little predictive performance as well. |
author2 |
8973113600 57198177387 24741104100 |
author |
Fernández, Isabel Hernández Flores, Carmen N. Pacheco Castelao, José Miguel |
author_facet |
Fernández, Isabel Hernández Flores, Carmen N. Pacheco Castelao, José Miguel |
author_sort |
Fernández, Isabel |
title |
Is the North Atlantic oscillation just a pink noise? |
title_short |
Is the North Atlantic oscillation just a pink noise? |
title_full |
Is the North Atlantic oscillation just a pink noise? |
title_fullStr |
Is the North Atlantic oscillation just a pink noise? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Is the North Atlantic oscillation just a pink noise? |
title_sort |
is the north atlantic oscillation just a pink noise? |
publishDate |
2003 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10553/43909 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4371(03)00056-6 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications [ISSN 0378-4371], v. 323, p. 705-714 |
op_relation |
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 0378-4371 http://hdl.handle.net/10553/43909 doi:10.1016/S0378-4371(03)00056-6 17044459727 714 705 323 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4371(03)00056-6 |
container_title |
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications |
container_volume |
323 |
container_start_page |
705 |
op_container_end_page |
714 |
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1766128586375299072 |