Towards robust investment decisions and policies in integrated energy systems planning: Evaluating trade-offs and risk hedging strategies for remote communities
Policy and investment decisions in developing clean energy strategies for remote communities are subject to multiple uncertainties that impact overall strategy outcomes, including those related to environmental emissions and energy costs. In this context, robust modeling approaches are required that...
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ftunivlaspalmas:oai:accedacris.ulpgc.es:10553/77471 2023-05-15T15:18:39+02:00 Towards robust investment decisions and policies in integrated energy systems planning: Evaluating trade-offs and risk hedging strategies for remote communities Quitoras, Marvin Rhey Cabrera Santana, Pedro Jesús Campana, Pietro Elia Rowley, Paul Crawford, Curran 57201053963 56331565000 55210018400 36345080000 57220873995 BU-ING 2021 http://hdl.handle.net/10553/77471 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2020.113748 eng eng Energy Conversion and Management 229 0196-8904 Scopus http://hdl.handle.net/10553/77471 doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2020.113748 85097771005 Sí Energy Conversion and Management [ISSN 0196-8904], v. 229, 113748, (Febrero 2021) 332205 Fuentes no convencionales de energía 330609 Transmisión y distribución 540104 Desarrollo regional 120715 Fiabilidad de sistemas Energy Policy Energy Sovereignty Indigenous Peoples Risk Hedging Strategies Robust Optimization Uncertainty info:eu-repo/semantics/Article Article 2021 ftunivlaspalmas https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2020.113748 2021-09-28T23:11:26Z Policy and investment decisions in developing clean energy strategies for remote communities are subject to multiple uncertainties that impact overall strategy outcomes, including those related to environmental emissions and energy costs. In this context, robust modeling approaches are required that can clarify potential outcomes while subject to such uncertainties. This work introduces a novel modeling framework that enables enhanced decision making in energy systems planning for remote communities, which for the first time takes into account context-specific decision-maker attitudes towards multiple inter-related uncertainties and various energy solution philosophies. In particular, multiple energy system configurations are evaluated by simultaneously minimizing the levelised cost of energy and fuel consumption, with a test case for a specific community in the Northwest Territories, Canada. The concept of model robustness and validity together with the stochastic nature of uncertain parameters are combined in a multi-objective optimization framework that elucidates the full spectrum of energy solutions available in such a remote Arctic context. Introducing known uncertainties in renewable energy characteristics was found to reduce overall energy yields from the renewable energy technologies. Specifically, the deterministic renewable energy penetration of 69% from a specific energy system configuration reduced to a mean of 51% after the inclusion of uncertainties via probabilistic simulation. Conversely, diesel fuel consumption increased to 750,000 L/yr (mean) from its initial deterministic value of 447,470 L/yr. Holistic energy solutions which include both supply and demand-side considerations are also analyzed. Specifically, a reduced community domestic heating load of 40% was achieved via retrofit of high performance building fabric enclosures evaluated in conjunction with renewable energy supply options. Ultimately, insights and real-world applications have been synthesized to provide coherent recommendations on strategies to address energy security, energy affordability and environmental sustainability, along with meaningful propositions towards Indigenous community-led energy projects in a range of contexts. 2,743 9,709 Q1 Q1 SCIE Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Northwest Territories Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria: Acceda Arctic Canada Northwest Territories Energy Conversion and Management 229 113748 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria: Acceda |
op_collection_id |
ftunivlaspalmas |
language |
English |
topic |
332205 Fuentes no convencionales de energía 330609 Transmisión y distribución 540104 Desarrollo regional 120715 Fiabilidad de sistemas Energy Policy Energy Sovereignty Indigenous Peoples Risk Hedging Strategies Robust Optimization Uncertainty |
spellingShingle |
332205 Fuentes no convencionales de energía 330609 Transmisión y distribución 540104 Desarrollo regional 120715 Fiabilidad de sistemas Energy Policy Energy Sovereignty Indigenous Peoples Risk Hedging Strategies Robust Optimization Uncertainty Quitoras, Marvin Rhey Cabrera Santana, Pedro Jesús Campana, Pietro Elia Rowley, Paul Crawford, Curran Towards robust investment decisions and policies in integrated energy systems planning: Evaluating trade-offs and risk hedging strategies for remote communities |
topic_facet |
332205 Fuentes no convencionales de energía 330609 Transmisión y distribución 540104 Desarrollo regional 120715 Fiabilidad de sistemas Energy Policy Energy Sovereignty Indigenous Peoples Risk Hedging Strategies Robust Optimization Uncertainty |
description |
Policy and investment decisions in developing clean energy strategies for remote communities are subject to multiple uncertainties that impact overall strategy outcomes, including those related to environmental emissions and energy costs. In this context, robust modeling approaches are required that can clarify potential outcomes while subject to such uncertainties. This work introduces a novel modeling framework that enables enhanced decision making in energy systems planning for remote communities, which for the first time takes into account context-specific decision-maker attitudes towards multiple inter-related uncertainties and various energy solution philosophies. In particular, multiple energy system configurations are evaluated by simultaneously minimizing the levelised cost of energy and fuel consumption, with a test case for a specific community in the Northwest Territories, Canada. The concept of model robustness and validity together with the stochastic nature of uncertain parameters are combined in a multi-objective optimization framework that elucidates the full spectrum of energy solutions available in such a remote Arctic context. Introducing known uncertainties in renewable energy characteristics was found to reduce overall energy yields from the renewable energy technologies. Specifically, the deterministic renewable energy penetration of 69% from a specific energy system configuration reduced to a mean of 51% after the inclusion of uncertainties via probabilistic simulation. Conversely, diesel fuel consumption increased to 750,000 L/yr (mean) from its initial deterministic value of 447,470 L/yr. Holistic energy solutions which include both supply and demand-side considerations are also analyzed. Specifically, a reduced community domestic heating load of 40% was achieved via retrofit of high performance building fabric enclosures evaluated in conjunction with renewable energy supply options. Ultimately, insights and real-world applications have been synthesized to provide coherent recommendations on strategies to address energy security, energy affordability and environmental sustainability, along with meaningful propositions towards Indigenous community-led energy projects in a range of contexts. 2,743 9,709 Q1 Q1 SCIE |
author2 |
57201053963 56331565000 55210018400 36345080000 57220873995 BU-ING |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Quitoras, Marvin Rhey Cabrera Santana, Pedro Jesús Campana, Pietro Elia Rowley, Paul Crawford, Curran |
author_facet |
Quitoras, Marvin Rhey Cabrera Santana, Pedro Jesús Campana, Pietro Elia Rowley, Paul Crawford, Curran |
author_sort |
Quitoras, Marvin Rhey |
title |
Towards robust investment decisions and policies in integrated energy systems planning: Evaluating trade-offs and risk hedging strategies for remote communities |
title_short |
Towards robust investment decisions and policies in integrated energy systems planning: Evaluating trade-offs and risk hedging strategies for remote communities |
title_full |
Towards robust investment decisions and policies in integrated energy systems planning: Evaluating trade-offs and risk hedging strategies for remote communities |
title_fullStr |
Towards robust investment decisions and policies in integrated energy systems planning: Evaluating trade-offs and risk hedging strategies for remote communities |
title_full_unstemmed |
Towards robust investment decisions and policies in integrated energy systems planning: Evaluating trade-offs and risk hedging strategies for remote communities |
title_sort |
towards robust investment decisions and policies in integrated energy systems planning: evaluating trade-offs and risk hedging strategies for remote communities |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10553/77471 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2020.113748 |
geographic |
Arctic Canada Northwest Territories |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada Northwest Territories |
genre |
Arctic Northwest Territories |
genre_facet |
Arctic Northwest Territories |
op_source |
Energy Conversion and Management [ISSN 0196-8904], v. 229, 113748, (Febrero 2021) |
op_relation |
Energy Conversion and Management 229 0196-8904 Scopus http://hdl.handle.net/10553/77471 doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2020.113748 85097771005 Sí |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2020.113748 |
container_title |
Energy Conversion and Management |
container_volume |
229 |
container_start_page |
113748 |
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1766348849328160768 |