Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012
The early 21st century was marked by several severe winters over Central Eurasia linked to a blocking anti-cyclone centered south of the Barents Sea. Severe winters in Central Eurasia were frequent in the 1960s when Arctic sea ice cover was anomalously large, and rare in the 1990s featuring consider...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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ftunivkiel:oai:macau.uni-kiel.de:macau_mods_00002437 2024-06-23T07:49:42+00:00 Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 Semenov, Vladimir Latif, Mojib 2015 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:gbv:8:3-2022-00116-4 https://macau.uni-kiel.de/receive/macau_mods_00002437 https://macau.uni-kiel.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/macau_derivate_00003556/Semenov_2015_Environ._Res._Lett._10_054020.pdf eng eng Environmental Research Letters -- 1748-9326 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:gbv:8:3-2022-00116-4 https://macau.uni-kiel.de/receive/macau_mods_00002437 https://macau.uni-kiel.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/macau_derivate_00003556/Semenov_2015_Environ._Res._Lett._10_054020.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article ScholarlyArticle ddc:550 Published Version Arctic sea ice anomalously cold winters AGCM Eurasian climate change article Text doc-type:Article 2015 ftunivkiel https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 2024-06-12T14:18:24Z The early 21st century was marked by several severe winters over Central Eurasia linked to a blocking anti-cyclone centered south of the Barents Sea. Severe winters in Central Eurasia were frequent in the 1960s when Arctic sea ice cover was anomalously large, and rare in the 1990s featuring considerably less sea ice cover; the 1960s being characterized by a low, the 1990s by a high phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the major driver of surface climate variability in Central Eurasia. We performed ensemble simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model using a set of multi-year Arctic sea ice climatologies corresponding to different periods during 1966–2012. The atmospheric response to the strongly reduced sea ice cover of 2005–2012 exhibits a statistically significant anti-cyclonic surface pressure anomaly which is similar to that observed. A similar response is found when the strongly positive sea ice cover anomaly of 1966–1969 drives the model. Basically no significant atmospheric circulation response was simulated when the model was forced by the sea ice cover anomaly of 1990–1995. The results suggest that sea ice cover reduction, through a changed atmospheric circulation, considerably contributed to the recent anomalously cold winters in Central Eurasia. Further, a nonlinear atmospheric circulation response to shrinking sea ice cover is suggested that depends on the background sea ice cover. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Barents Sea Climate change North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice MACAU: Open Access Repository of Kiel University Arctic Barents Sea Environmental Research Letters 10 5 054020 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
MACAU: Open Access Repository of Kiel University |
op_collection_id |
ftunivkiel |
language |
English |
topic |
article ScholarlyArticle ddc:550 Published Version Arctic sea ice anomalously cold winters AGCM Eurasian climate change |
spellingShingle |
article ScholarlyArticle ddc:550 Published Version Arctic sea ice anomalously cold winters AGCM Eurasian climate change Semenov, Vladimir Latif, Mojib Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 |
topic_facet |
article ScholarlyArticle ddc:550 Published Version Arctic sea ice anomalously cold winters AGCM Eurasian climate change |
description |
The early 21st century was marked by several severe winters over Central Eurasia linked to a blocking anti-cyclone centered south of the Barents Sea. Severe winters in Central Eurasia were frequent in the 1960s when Arctic sea ice cover was anomalously large, and rare in the 1990s featuring considerably less sea ice cover; the 1960s being characterized by a low, the 1990s by a high phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the major driver of surface climate variability in Central Eurasia. We performed ensemble simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model using a set of multi-year Arctic sea ice climatologies corresponding to different periods during 1966–2012. The atmospheric response to the strongly reduced sea ice cover of 2005–2012 exhibits a statistically significant anti-cyclonic surface pressure anomaly which is similar to that observed. A similar response is found when the strongly positive sea ice cover anomaly of 1966–1969 drives the model. Basically no significant atmospheric circulation response was simulated when the model was forced by the sea ice cover anomaly of 1990–1995. The results suggest that sea ice cover reduction, through a changed atmospheric circulation, considerably contributed to the recent anomalously cold winters in Central Eurasia. Further, a nonlinear atmospheric circulation response to shrinking sea ice cover is suggested that depends on the background sea ice cover. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Semenov, Vladimir Latif, Mojib |
author_facet |
Semenov, Vladimir Latif, Mojib |
author_sort |
Semenov, Vladimir |
title |
Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 |
title_short |
Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 |
title_full |
Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 |
title_fullStr |
Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 |
title_sort |
nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:gbv:8:3-2022-00116-4 https://macau.uni-kiel.de/receive/macau_mods_00002437 https://macau.uni-kiel.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/macau_derivate_00003556/Semenov_2015_Environ._Res._Lett._10_054020.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea |
genre |
Arctic Barents Sea Climate change North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea Climate change North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_relation |
Environmental Research Letters -- 1748-9326 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:gbv:8:3-2022-00116-4 https://macau.uni-kiel.de/receive/macau_mods_00002437 https://macau.uni-kiel.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/macau_derivate_00003556/Semenov_2015_Environ._Res._Lett._10_054020.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
054020 |
_version_ |
1802640289014218752 |