Transit navigation through Northern Sea Route from satellite data and CMIP5 simulations
Rapid Arctic sea ice decline over the last few decades opens new perspectives for Arctic marine navigation. Further warming in the Arctic will promote the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative to the conventional Suez or Panama Canal routes for intercontinental shipping. Here we use both satell...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5841 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:gbv:8:3-2022-00120-8 https://macau.uni-kiel.de/receive/macau_mods_00002433 https://macau.uni-kiel.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/macau_derivate_00003553/Khon_2017_Environ._Res._Lett._12_024010.pdf |
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ftunivkiel:oai:macau.uni-kiel.de:macau_mods_00002433 2024-06-23T07:49:25+00:00 Transit navigation through Northern Sea Route from satellite data and CMIP5 simulations Khon, Vyacheslav Mokhov, Igor I Semenov, Vladimir 2017 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5841 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:gbv:8:3-2022-00120-8 https://macau.uni-kiel.de/receive/macau_mods_00002433 https://macau.uni-kiel.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/macau_derivate_00003553/Khon_2017_Environ._Res._Lett._12_024010.pdf eng eng Environmental Research Letters -- 1748-9326 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5841 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:gbv:8:3-2022-00120-8 https://macau.uni-kiel.de/receive/macau_mods_00002433 https://macau.uni-kiel.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/macau_derivate_00003553/Khon_2017_Environ._Res._Lett._12_024010.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article ScholarlyArticle ddc:550 Published Version Northern Sea Route arctic marine navigation climate models Arctic sea ice article Text doc-type:Article 2017 ftunivkiel https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5841 2024-06-12T14:18:24Z Rapid Arctic sea ice decline over the last few decades opens new perspectives for Arctic marine navigation. Further warming in the Arctic will promote the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative to the conventional Suez or Panama Canal routes for intercontinental shipping. Here we use both satellite data and CMIP5 ensemble of climate models to estimate the NSR transit window allowing intercontinental navigation between Atlantic and Pacific regions. To this end, we introduce a novel approach to calculate start and end dates of the navigation season along the NSR. We show that modern climate models are able to reproduce the mean time of the NSR transit window and its trend over the last few decades. The selected models demonstrate that the rate of increase of the NSR navigation season will slow down over the next few decades with the RCP4.5 scenario. By the end of the 21st century ensemble-mean estimates show an increase of the NSR transit window by about 4 and 6.5 months according to RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Estimated trends for the end date of the navigation season are found to be stronger compared to those for the start date. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Northern Sea Route Sea ice MACAU: Open Access Repository of Kiel University Arctic Pacific Environmental Research Letters 12 2 024010 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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MACAU: Open Access Repository of Kiel University |
op_collection_id |
ftunivkiel |
language |
English |
topic |
article ScholarlyArticle ddc:550 Published Version Northern Sea Route arctic marine navigation climate models Arctic sea ice |
spellingShingle |
article ScholarlyArticle ddc:550 Published Version Northern Sea Route arctic marine navigation climate models Arctic sea ice Khon, Vyacheslav Mokhov, Igor I Semenov, Vladimir Transit navigation through Northern Sea Route from satellite data and CMIP5 simulations |
topic_facet |
article ScholarlyArticle ddc:550 Published Version Northern Sea Route arctic marine navigation climate models Arctic sea ice |
description |
Rapid Arctic sea ice decline over the last few decades opens new perspectives for Arctic marine navigation. Further warming in the Arctic will promote the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative to the conventional Suez or Panama Canal routes for intercontinental shipping. Here we use both satellite data and CMIP5 ensemble of climate models to estimate the NSR transit window allowing intercontinental navigation between Atlantic and Pacific regions. To this end, we introduce a novel approach to calculate start and end dates of the navigation season along the NSR. We show that modern climate models are able to reproduce the mean time of the NSR transit window and its trend over the last few decades. The selected models demonstrate that the rate of increase of the NSR navigation season will slow down over the next few decades with the RCP4.5 scenario. By the end of the 21st century ensemble-mean estimates show an increase of the NSR transit window by about 4 and 6.5 months according to RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Estimated trends for the end date of the navigation season are found to be stronger compared to those for the start date. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Khon, Vyacheslav Mokhov, Igor I Semenov, Vladimir |
author_facet |
Khon, Vyacheslav Mokhov, Igor I Semenov, Vladimir |
author_sort |
Khon, Vyacheslav |
title |
Transit navigation through Northern Sea Route from satellite data and CMIP5 simulations |
title_short |
Transit navigation through Northern Sea Route from satellite data and CMIP5 simulations |
title_full |
Transit navigation through Northern Sea Route from satellite data and CMIP5 simulations |
title_fullStr |
Transit navigation through Northern Sea Route from satellite data and CMIP5 simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Transit navigation through Northern Sea Route from satellite data and CMIP5 simulations |
title_sort |
transit navigation through northern sea route from satellite data and cmip5 simulations |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5841 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:gbv:8:3-2022-00120-8 https://macau.uni-kiel.de/receive/macau_mods_00002433 https://macau.uni-kiel.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/macau_derivate_00003553/Khon_2017_Environ._Res._Lett._12_024010.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic Northern Sea Route Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Northern Sea Route Sea ice |
op_relation |
Environmental Research Letters -- 1748-9326 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5841 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:gbv:8:3-2022-00120-8 https://macau.uni-kiel.de/receive/macau_mods_00002433 https://macau.uni-kiel.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/macau_derivate_00003553/Khon_2017_Environ._Res._Lett._12_024010.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5841 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
024010 |
_version_ |
1802639821962739712 |