Climate change and the risks of Neodiprion sertifer outbreaks on Scots pine.
Part I Climate Change The European Pine Sawfly (Neodiprion sertifer) is one of the most serious defoliators of Scots pine in northern Europe. We studied the pattern in the regional occurrence of the outbreaks of N. sertifer in Finland in years 1961–90, and made predictions about the outbreak pattern...
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The Finnish Society of Forest Science and The Finnish Forest Research Institute
2009
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ftunivhelsihelda:oai:helda.helsinki.fi:1975/9229 2023-08-20T04:08:42+02:00 Climate change and the risks of Neodiprion sertifer outbreaks on Scots pine. Virtanen, Tarmo Neuvonen, Seppo Nikula, Ari Varama, Martti Niemelä, Pekka The Finnish Society of Forest Science Suomen metsätieteellinen seura Finlands Forstvetenskapliga Samfund 2009-05-30T16:00:06Z application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/1975/9229 eng eng The Finnish Society of Forest Science and The Finnish Forest Research Institute 0037-5330 Silva Fennica. 1996. 30(2–3): 169–177. SMS http://hdl.handle.net/1975/9229 Pinus sylvestris Neodiprion sertifer population growth climatic change cold temperature resistance mänty mäntypistiäinen tuhohyönteiset ilmastonmuutokset kylmänkestävyys talvi lämpötila Article 2009 ftunivhelsihelda 2023-07-28T06:27:42Z Part I Climate Change The European Pine Sawfly (Neodiprion sertifer) is one of the most serious defoliators of Scots pine in northern Europe. We studied the pattern in the regional occurrence of the outbreaks of N. sertifer in Finland in years 1961–90, and made predictions about the outbreak pattern to the year 2050 after predicted winter warming. We tested whether minimum winter temperatures and forest type and soil properties could explain the observed outbreak pattern. We analysed outbreak patterns at two different spatial levels: forest board- and municipal-level. The proportion of coniferous forests on damage susceptible soils (dry and infertile sites) explained a significant part of the variation in outbreak frequency at small spatial scale (municipalities) but not at large spatial scale (forest boards). At the forest board level the incidence of minimum temperatures below –36 °C (= the critical value for egg mortality) explains 33% of the variation in the outbreak pattern, and at the municipal level the incidence of cold winters was also the most significant explaining variable in northern Finland. Egg mortality due to cold winters seems to be the most parsimonious factor explaining why there have been so few N. sertifer outbreaks in northern and northeastern Finland. We predict that climate change (increased winter temperatures) may increase the frequency of outbreaks in eastern and northern Finland in the future. Article in Journal/Newspaper Northern Finland Helsingfors Universitet: HELDA – Helsingin yliopiston digitaalinen arkisto Mänty ENVELOPE(25.033,25.033,66.700,66.700) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Helsingfors Universitet: HELDA – Helsingin yliopiston digitaalinen arkisto |
op_collection_id |
ftunivhelsihelda |
language |
English |
topic |
Pinus sylvestris Neodiprion sertifer population growth climatic change cold temperature resistance mänty mäntypistiäinen tuhohyönteiset ilmastonmuutokset kylmänkestävyys talvi lämpötila |
spellingShingle |
Pinus sylvestris Neodiprion sertifer population growth climatic change cold temperature resistance mänty mäntypistiäinen tuhohyönteiset ilmastonmuutokset kylmänkestävyys talvi lämpötila Virtanen, Tarmo Neuvonen, Seppo Nikula, Ari Varama, Martti Niemelä, Pekka Climate change and the risks of Neodiprion sertifer outbreaks on Scots pine. |
topic_facet |
Pinus sylvestris Neodiprion sertifer population growth climatic change cold temperature resistance mänty mäntypistiäinen tuhohyönteiset ilmastonmuutokset kylmänkestävyys talvi lämpötila |
description |
Part I Climate Change The European Pine Sawfly (Neodiprion sertifer) is one of the most serious defoliators of Scots pine in northern Europe. We studied the pattern in the regional occurrence of the outbreaks of N. sertifer in Finland in years 1961–90, and made predictions about the outbreak pattern to the year 2050 after predicted winter warming. We tested whether minimum winter temperatures and forest type and soil properties could explain the observed outbreak pattern. We analysed outbreak patterns at two different spatial levels: forest board- and municipal-level. The proportion of coniferous forests on damage susceptible soils (dry and infertile sites) explained a significant part of the variation in outbreak frequency at small spatial scale (municipalities) but not at large spatial scale (forest boards). At the forest board level the incidence of minimum temperatures below –36 °C (= the critical value for egg mortality) explains 33% of the variation in the outbreak pattern, and at the municipal level the incidence of cold winters was also the most significant explaining variable in northern Finland. Egg mortality due to cold winters seems to be the most parsimonious factor explaining why there have been so few N. sertifer outbreaks in northern and northeastern Finland. We predict that climate change (increased winter temperatures) may increase the frequency of outbreaks in eastern and northern Finland in the future. |
author2 |
The Finnish Society of Forest Science Suomen metsätieteellinen seura Finlands Forstvetenskapliga Samfund |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Virtanen, Tarmo Neuvonen, Seppo Nikula, Ari Varama, Martti Niemelä, Pekka |
author_facet |
Virtanen, Tarmo Neuvonen, Seppo Nikula, Ari Varama, Martti Niemelä, Pekka |
author_sort |
Virtanen, Tarmo |
title |
Climate change and the risks of Neodiprion sertifer outbreaks on Scots pine. |
title_short |
Climate change and the risks of Neodiprion sertifer outbreaks on Scots pine. |
title_full |
Climate change and the risks of Neodiprion sertifer outbreaks on Scots pine. |
title_fullStr |
Climate change and the risks of Neodiprion sertifer outbreaks on Scots pine. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change and the risks of Neodiprion sertifer outbreaks on Scots pine. |
title_sort |
climate change and the risks of neodiprion sertifer outbreaks on scots pine. |
publisher |
The Finnish Society of Forest Science and The Finnish Forest Research Institute |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1975/9229 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(25.033,25.033,66.700,66.700) |
geographic |
Mänty |
geographic_facet |
Mänty |
genre |
Northern Finland |
genre_facet |
Northern Finland |
op_relation |
0037-5330 Silva Fennica. 1996. 30(2–3): 169–177. SMS http://hdl.handle.net/1975/9229 |
_version_ |
1774721134121451520 |