Review of spatial modelling of sea level extremes

• Main Authors: Räty, Olle, Laine, Marko
• Other Authors: Ilmatieteen laitos, Finnish Meteorological Institute, orcid:0000-0002-6766-1167, orcid:0000-0002-5914-6747
• Format: Report
• Language: English
• Published: Ilmatieteen laitos 2025
• Subjects: Baltic region; extreme values; simulation; statistical methods; mathematical models; matemaattinen tilastotiede; mallintaminen; paikkatietoanalyysi; Itämeri; Itämeren alue; ääriarvot; simulointi; tilastomenetelmät; matemaattiset mallit; mathematical statistics; modelling (representation); spatial analysis; Baltic Sea; North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/591408

This report summarises a review of studies from the North Atlantic and Baltic Sea region, in which some form of spatial extreme value analysis was applied to storm surges. The 37 reviewed papers were categorised into 1) physics-based, 2) regional frequency analysis, 3) one-dimensional, 4) fully spatial and 5) satellite-based approaches. Studies based on physical modelling were the most numerous, likely because physical models directly provide spatial data for extreme value analysis without a need for using complex spatial statistical models. While there was a limited number of fully spatial modelling studies applied to storm surges in the study region, Bayesian hierarchical modelling with max-stable processes seemed the most promising for future research purposes. This approach allows for modelling the spatial dependence in the annual maxima and the extreme value distribution parameters at hand and also provides means to simulate spatial realisations of sea level extremes.