Simulated extreme sea levels at Helsinki
We present an assessment of the exceedance probabilities of sea levels at Helsinki, on the coast of the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea, based on an 850-year numerical sea-level simulation. The internal sea-level variations in the Baltic Sea are calculated with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model...
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Boreal Environment Research Publishing Board
2024
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10138/578366 |
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ftunivhelsihelda:oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/578366 2024-09-15T18:00:08+00:00 Simulated extreme sea levels at Helsinki Särkkä, J. Kahma, K.K. Kämäräinen, M. Johansson, M.M. Saku, S. 2024-06-27T13:45:03Z 299-315 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10138/578366 eng eng Boreal Environment Research Publishing Board Boreal Environment Research 1239-6095 1797-2469 22 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/578366 Suomen ympäristökeskus CC BY 4.0 openAccess Artikkeli lehdessä 2024 ftunivhelsihelda 2024-08-21T23:48:04Z We present an assessment of the exceedance probabilities of sea levels at Helsinki, on the coast of the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea, based on an 850-year numerical sea-level simulation. The internal sea-level variations in the Baltic Sea are calculated with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, whereas the variations in the Baltic Sea water volume are evaluated using a statistical model based on the geostrophic wind speeds near Bornholm. The atmospheric data used for the sea-level simulation is taken from downscaled regional climate scenario simulations. The simulated sea-level extremes at Helsinki in the current climate are slightly smaller than the previous estimates which were based on measured data only. The extrapolation of simulated data gives an estimate of sea level 227 cm at Helsinki for the exceedance frequency of 10–4 events per year. The sum of the maxima of the model components during a short 30-year verification period indicates that sea level 225 cm is possible at Helsinki if all the components simultaneously attain their maxima. Article in Journal/Newspaper Boreal Environment Research HELDA – University of Helsinki Open Repository |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
HELDA – University of Helsinki Open Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivhelsihelda |
language |
English |
description |
We present an assessment of the exceedance probabilities of sea levels at Helsinki, on the coast of the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea, based on an 850-year numerical sea-level simulation. The internal sea-level variations in the Baltic Sea are calculated with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, whereas the variations in the Baltic Sea water volume are evaluated using a statistical model based on the geostrophic wind speeds near Bornholm. The atmospheric data used for the sea-level simulation is taken from downscaled regional climate scenario simulations. The simulated sea-level extremes at Helsinki in the current climate are slightly smaller than the previous estimates which were based on measured data only. The extrapolation of simulated data gives an estimate of sea level 227 cm at Helsinki for the exceedance frequency of 10–4 events per year. The sum of the maxima of the model components during a short 30-year verification period indicates that sea level 225 cm is possible at Helsinki if all the components simultaneously attain their maxima. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Särkkä, J. Kahma, K.K. Kämäräinen, M. Johansson, M.M. Saku, S. |
spellingShingle |
Särkkä, J. Kahma, K.K. Kämäräinen, M. Johansson, M.M. Saku, S. Simulated extreme sea levels at Helsinki |
author_facet |
Särkkä, J. Kahma, K.K. Kämäräinen, M. Johansson, M.M. Saku, S. |
author_sort |
Särkkä, J. |
title |
Simulated extreme sea levels at Helsinki |
title_short |
Simulated extreme sea levels at Helsinki |
title_full |
Simulated extreme sea levels at Helsinki |
title_fullStr |
Simulated extreme sea levels at Helsinki |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simulated extreme sea levels at Helsinki |
title_sort |
simulated extreme sea levels at helsinki |
publisher |
Boreal Environment Research Publishing Board |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10138/578366 |
genre |
Boreal Environment Research |
genre_facet |
Boreal Environment Research |
op_relation |
Boreal Environment Research 1239-6095 1797-2469 22 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/578366 Suomen ympäristökeskus |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 openAccess |
_version_ |
1810437242758365184 |