Multi-Model Simulation of Solar Geoengineering Indicates Avoidable Destabilization of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Heat transported in Circumpolar Deep Water is driving the break-up of ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica, that has been simulated to be unavoidable under all plausible greenhouse gas scenarios. However, Solar geoengineering scenarios remain largely unexplored. Solar geoengineering...
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ftunivhelsihelda:oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/576793 2024-06-23T07:45:26+00:00 Multi-Model Simulation of Solar Geoengineering Indicates Avoidable Destabilization of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Moore, John C. Yue, Chao Chen, Yangxin Jevrejeva, Svetlana Visioni, Daniele Uotila, Petteri Zhao, Liyun Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) 2024-06-11T13:00:04Z 13 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10138/576793 eng eng American Geophysical Union 10.1029/2024EF004424 Moore , J C , Yue , C , Chen , Y , Jevrejeva , S , Visioni , D , Uotila , P & Zhao , L 2024 , ' Multi-Model Simulation of Solar Geoengineering Indicates Avoidable Destabilization of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet ' , Earth's future , vol. 12 , no. 6 , e2024EF004424 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004424 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/576793 417767ae-5dc7-49f6-a185-9689aff2da14 001237503300001 cc_by info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess openAccess Physical sciences Geosciences Article publishedVersion 2024 ftunivhelsihelda 2024-06-11T14:22:15Z Heat transported in Circumpolar Deep Water is driving the break-up of ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica, that has been simulated to be unavoidable under all plausible greenhouse gas scenarios. However, Solar geoengineering scenarios remain largely unexplored. Solar geoengineering changes global thermal radiative balance, and atmospheric and oceanic transportation pathways. We simulate stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) designed to reduce global mean temperatures from those under the unmitigated SSP5-8.5 scenario to those under the SSP2-4.5 scenario with six CMIP6-class Earth System Models. These consistently show intensified Antarctic polar vortex and sub-polar westerlies, which mitigates changes to easterly winds along the Amundsen Sea continental shelf compared with greenhouse gas scenarios. The models show significantly cooler Amundsen Sea waters and lower heat content at 300–600 m under SAI than with either solar dimming or the SSP5-8.5 unmitigated greenhouse gas scenarios. However, the heat content increases under all scenarios compared with present day suggesting that although vulnerable ice shelves would continue to thin, the rate would be lower for SAI even with SSP5-8.5 specified greenhouse gases, than for the moderate (SSP2-4.5) scenario. The simulations here use solar geoengineering designed to meet global temperature targets; interventions targeted at preserving the frozen high latitudes have also been proposed that might be expected to produce bigger local effects, but potentially deleterious impacts elsewhere. Considering the huge disruptions to society of ice sheet collapse, more research on avoiding them by intervention technology is a moral imperative. Peer reviewed Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelves HELDA – University of Helsinki Open Repository Antarctic Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
HELDA – University of Helsinki Open Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivhelsihelda |
language |
English |
topic |
Physical sciences Geosciences |
spellingShingle |
Physical sciences Geosciences Moore, John C. Yue, Chao Chen, Yangxin Jevrejeva, Svetlana Visioni, Daniele Uotila, Petteri Zhao, Liyun Multi-Model Simulation of Solar Geoengineering Indicates Avoidable Destabilization of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
topic_facet |
Physical sciences Geosciences |
description |
Heat transported in Circumpolar Deep Water is driving the break-up of ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica, that has been simulated to be unavoidable under all plausible greenhouse gas scenarios. However, Solar geoengineering scenarios remain largely unexplored. Solar geoengineering changes global thermal radiative balance, and atmospheric and oceanic transportation pathways. We simulate stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) designed to reduce global mean temperatures from those under the unmitigated SSP5-8.5 scenario to those under the SSP2-4.5 scenario with six CMIP6-class Earth System Models. These consistently show intensified Antarctic polar vortex and sub-polar westerlies, which mitigates changes to easterly winds along the Amundsen Sea continental shelf compared with greenhouse gas scenarios. The models show significantly cooler Amundsen Sea waters and lower heat content at 300–600 m under SAI than with either solar dimming or the SSP5-8.5 unmitigated greenhouse gas scenarios. However, the heat content increases under all scenarios compared with present day suggesting that although vulnerable ice shelves would continue to thin, the rate would be lower for SAI even with SSP5-8.5 specified greenhouse gases, than for the moderate (SSP2-4.5) scenario. The simulations here use solar geoengineering designed to meet global temperature targets; interventions targeted at preserving the frozen high latitudes have also been proposed that might be expected to produce bigger local effects, but potentially deleterious impacts elsewhere. Considering the huge disruptions to society of ice sheet collapse, more research on avoiding them by intervention technology is a moral imperative. Peer reviewed |
author2 |
Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Moore, John C. Yue, Chao Chen, Yangxin Jevrejeva, Svetlana Visioni, Daniele Uotila, Petteri Zhao, Liyun |
author_facet |
Moore, John C. Yue, Chao Chen, Yangxin Jevrejeva, Svetlana Visioni, Daniele Uotila, Petteri Zhao, Liyun |
author_sort |
Moore, John C. |
title |
Multi-Model Simulation of Solar Geoengineering Indicates Avoidable Destabilization of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
title_short |
Multi-Model Simulation of Solar Geoengineering Indicates Avoidable Destabilization of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
title_full |
Multi-Model Simulation of Solar Geoengineering Indicates Avoidable Destabilization of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
title_fullStr |
Multi-Model Simulation of Solar Geoengineering Indicates Avoidable Destabilization of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multi-Model Simulation of Solar Geoengineering Indicates Avoidable Destabilization of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
title_sort |
multi-model simulation of solar geoengineering indicates avoidable destabilization of the west antarctic ice sheet |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10138/576793 |
geographic |
Antarctic Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelves |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelves |
op_relation |
10.1029/2024EF004424 Moore , J C , Yue , C , Chen , Y , Jevrejeva , S , Visioni , D , Uotila , P & Zhao , L 2024 , ' Multi-Model Simulation of Solar Geoengineering Indicates Avoidable Destabilization of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet ' , Earth's future , vol. 12 , no. 6 , e2024EF004424 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004424 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/576793 417767ae-5dc7-49f6-a185-9689aff2da14 001237503300001 |
op_rights |
cc_by info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess openAccess |
_version_ |
1802639686865256448 |