Seasonal predictability of the dominant surface ozone pattern over China linked to sea surface temperature
Mitigation surface ozone pollution becomes increasingly pivotal in improving China's air quality. However, the impact of global sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) on the long-term predictability of China's surface ozone remains challenging. In this study, we employ eigen techniques t...
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ftunivhelsihelda:oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/573545 2024-04-21T08:07:48+00:00 Seasonal predictability of the dominant surface ozone pattern over China linked to sea surface temperature Chen, Yuan Chen, Dean Nie, Linru Liu, Wenqi Fan, Jingfang Chen, Xiaosong Zhang, Yongwen Department of Physics 2024-03-21T14:16:03Z 8 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10138/573545 eng eng Springer 10.1038/s41612-023-00560-7 The authors thank the financial support by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2023YFE0109000), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 12305044, 12371460 and 12135003) and the Fundamental Research Program of Yunnan Province (No. CB22052C173A). We also thank the data source provided by Tsinghua University's Tracking Air Pollution team (https://quotsoft.net/air/), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/) and website (http://tapdata.org.cn/). Chen , Y , Chen , D , Nie , L , Liu , W , Fan , J , Chen , X & Zhang , Y 2024 , ' Seasonal predictability of the dominant surface ozone pattern over China linked to sea surface temperature ' , npj climate and atmospheric science , vol. 7 , no. 1 , 17 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00560-7 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/573545 cb812079-92bb-4e24-b7c2-9fbcd3f31469 85182492294 001142967900001 cc_by info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess openAccess North-atlantic oscillation Pollution Climate Winter Variability Sensitivity Persistence Emissions Networks Indexes 114 Physical sciences Article publishedVersion 2024 ftunivhelsihelda 2024-03-27T17:51:23Z Mitigation surface ozone pollution becomes increasingly pivotal in improving China's air quality. However, the impact of global sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) on the long-term predictability of China's surface ozone remains challenging. In this study, we employ eigen techniques to effectively characterize dominant surface ozone patterns over China, and establish cross-correlations between the dominant patterns and global SSTA time series. Our findings reveal that China's summer ozone pollution is strongly associated with crucial SSTA clusters linked to atmospheric circulations, i.e., the West Pacific Subtropical High and the Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern. For winter, ozone pollution is attributed to SSTA clusters related to the Southern Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation and others. We propose a multivariate regression model capable of predicting surface ozone patterns with a lead time of at least 3 months. Evaluation of our model using a testing dataset yields an R-value of around 0.5 between predicted and observed data, surpassing statistical significance threshold. This suggests the viability and potential applicability of our predictive model in surface ozone forecasting and mitigation strategies in China. Peer reviewed Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation HELDA – University of Helsinki Open Repository |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
HELDA – University of Helsinki Open Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivhelsihelda |
language |
English |
topic |
North-atlantic oscillation Pollution Climate Winter Variability Sensitivity Persistence Emissions Networks Indexes 114 Physical sciences |
spellingShingle |
North-atlantic oscillation Pollution Climate Winter Variability Sensitivity Persistence Emissions Networks Indexes 114 Physical sciences Chen, Yuan Chen, Dean Nie, Linru Liu, Wenqi Fan, Jingfang Chen, Xiaosong Zhang, Yongwen Seasonal predictability of the dominant surface ozone pattern over China linked to sea surface temperature |
topic_facet |
North-atlantic oscillation Pollution Climate Winter Variability Sensitivity Persistence Emissions Networks Indexes 114 Physical sciences |
description |
Mitigation surface ozone pollution becomes increasingly pivotal in improving China's air quality. However, the impact of global sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) on the long-term predictability of China's surface ozone remains challenging. In this study, we employ eigen techniques to effectively characterize dominant surface ozone patterns over China, and establish cross-correlations between the dominant patterns and global SSTA time series. Our findings reveal that China's summer ozone pollution is strongly associated with crucial SSTA clusters linked to atmospheric circulations, i.e., the West Pacific Subtropical High and the Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern. For winter, ozone pollution is attributed to SSTA clusters related to the Southern Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation and others. We propose a multivariate regression model capable of predicting surface ozone patterns with a lead time of at least 3 months. Evaluation of our model using a testing dataset yields an R-value of around 0.5 between predicted and observed data, surpassing statistical significance threshold. This suggests the viability and potential applicability of our predictive model in surface ozone forecasting and mitigation strategies in China. Peer reviewed |
author2 |
Department of Physics |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chen, Yuan Chen, Dean Nie, Linru Liu, Wenqi Fan, Jingfang Chen, Xiaosong Zhang, Yongwen |
author_facet |
Chen, Yuan Chen, Dean Nie, Linru Liu, Wenqi Fan, Jingfang Chen, Xiaosong Zhang, Yongwen |
author_sort |
Chen, Yuan |
title |
Seasonal predictability of the dominant surface ozone pattern over China linked to sea surface temperature |
title_short |
Seasonal predictability of the dominant surface ozone pattern over China linked to sea surface temperature |
title_full |
Seasonal predictability of the dominant surface ozone pattern over China linked to sea surface temperature |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal predictability of the dominant surface ozone pattern over China linked to sea surface temperature |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal predictability of the dominant surface ozone pattern over China linked to sea surface temperature |
title_sort |
seasonal predictability of the dominant surface ozone pattern over china linked to sea surface temperature |
publisher |
Springer |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10138/573545 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
10.1038/s41612-023-00560-7 The authors thank the financial support by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2023YFE0109000), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 12305044, 12371460 and 12135003) and the Fundamental Research Program of Yunnan Province (No. CB22052C173A). We also thank the data source provided by Tsinghua University's Tracking Air Pollution team (https://quotsoft.net/air/), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/) and website (http://tapdata.org.cn/). Chen , Y , Chen , D , Nie , L , Liu , W , Fan , J , Chen , X & Zhang , Y 2024 , ' Seasonal predictability of the dominant surface ozone pattern over China linked to sea surface temperature ' , npj climate and atmospheric science , vol. 7 , no. 1 , 17 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00560-7 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/573545 cb812079-92bb-4e24-b7c2-9fbcd3f31469 85182492294 001142967900001 |
op_rights |
cc_by info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess openAccess |
_version_ |
1796947867858894848 |