Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of th...
Published in: | Earth System Dynamics |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Format: | Review |
Language: | English |
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COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
2023
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10138/354283 |
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ftunivhelsihelda:oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/354283 |
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Open Polar |
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HELDA – University of Helsinki Open Repository |
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ftunivhelsihelda |
language |
English |
topic |
Long-term changes North-atlantic oscillation Dissolved organic-carbon Diurnal temperature-range Storm-track sensitivity Herring clupea-harengus Net primary production Large-volume changes Acid-base system Nemo-nordic 1.0 1171 Geosciences |
spellingShingle |
Long-term changes North-atlantic oscillation Dissolved organic-carbon Diurnal temperature-range Storm-track sensitivity Herring clupea-harengus Net primary production Large-volume changes Acid-base system Nemo-nordic 1.0 1171 Geosciences Meier, H. E. Markus Kniebusch, Madline Dieterich, Christian Groeger, Matthias Zorita, Eduardo Elmgren, Ragnar Myrberg, Kai Ahola, Markus P. Bartosova, Alena Bonsdorff, Erik Boergel, Florian Capell, Rene Carlen, Ida Carlund, Thomas Carstensen, Jacob Christensen, Ole B. Dierschke, Volker Frauen, Claudia Frederiksen, Morten Gaget, Elie Galatius, Anders Haapala, Jari J. Halkka, Antti Hugelius, Gustaf Huenicke, Birgit Jaagus, Jaak Jussi, Mart Käyhkö, Jukka Kirchner, Nina Kjellstrom, Erik Kulinski, Karol Lehmann, Andreas Lindström, Göran May, Wilhelm Miller, Paul A. Mohrholz, Volker Muller-Karulis, Barbel Pavon-Jordan, Diego Quante, Markus Reckermann, Marcus Rutgersson, Anna Savchuk, Oleg P. Stendel, Martin Tuomi, Laura Viitasalo, Markku Weisse, Ralf Zhang, Wenyan Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary |
topic_facet |
Long-term changes North-atlantic oscillation Dissolved organic-carbon Diurnal temperature-range Storm-track sensitivity Herring clupea-harengus Net primary production Large-volume changes Acid-base system Nemo-nordic 1.0 1171 Geosciences |
description |
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also ... |
author2 |
Environmental Sciences |
format |
Review |
author |
Meier, H. E. Markus Kniebusch, Madline Dieterich, Christian Groeger, Matthias Zorita, Eduardo Elmgren, Ragnar Myrberg, Kai Ahola, Markus P. Bartosova, Alena Bonsdorff, Erik Boergel, Florian Capell, Rene Carlen, Ida Carlund, Thomas Carstensen, Jacob Christensen, Ole B. Dierschke, Volker Frauen, Claudia Frederiksen, Morten Gaget, Elie Galatius, Anders Haapala, Jari J. Halkka, Antti Hugelius, Gustaf Huenicke, Birgit Jaagus, Jaak Jussi, Mart Käyhkö, Jukka Kirchner, Nina Kjellstrom, Erik Kulinski, Karol Lehmann, Andreas Lindström, Göran May, Wilhelm Miller, Paul A. Mohrholz, Volker Muller-Karulis, Barbel Pavon-Jordan, Diego Quante, Markus Reckermann, Marcus Rutgersson, Anna Savchuk, Oleg P. Stendel, Martin Tuomi, Laura Viitasalo, Markku Weisse, Ralf Zhang, Wenyan |
author_facet |
Meier, H. E. Markus Kniebusch, Madline Dieterich, Christian Groeger, Matthias Zorita, Eduardo Elmgren, Ragnar Myrberg, Kai Ahola, Markus P. Bartosova, Alena Bonsdorff, Erik Boergel, Florian Capell, Rene Carlen, Ida Carlund, Thomas Carstensen, Jacob Christensen, Ole B. Dierschke, Volker Frauen, Claudia Frederiksen, Morten Gaget, Elie Galatius, Anders Haapala, Jari J. Halkka, Antti Hugelius, Gustaf Huenicke, Birgit Jaagus, Jaak Jussi, Mart Käyhkö, Jukka Kirchner, Nina Kjellstrom, Erik Kulinski, Karol Lehmann, Andreas Lindström, Göran May, Wilhelm Miller, Paul A. Mohrholz, Volker Muller-Karulis, Barbel Pavon-Jordan, Diego Quante, Markus Reckermann, Marcus Rutgersson, Anna Savchuk, Oleg P. Stendel, Martin Tuomi, Laura Viitasalo, Markku Weisse, Ralf Zhang, Wenyan |
author_sort |
Meier, H. E. Markus |
title |
Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary |
title_short |
Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary |
title_full |
Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary |
title_fullStr |
Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary |
title_sort |
climate change in the baltic sea region : a summary |
publisher |
COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10138/354283 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
10.5194/esd-13-457-2022 Meier , H E M , Kniebusch , M , Dieterich , C , Groeger , M , Zorita , E , Elmgren , R , Myrberg , K , Ahola , M P , Bartosova , A , Bonsdorff , E , Boergel , F , Capell , R , Carlen , I , Carlund , T , Carstensen , J , Christensen , O B , Dierschke , V , Frauen , C , Frederiksen , M , Gaget , E , Galatius , A , Haapala , J J , Halkka , A , Hugelius , G , Huenicke , B , Jaagus , J , Jussi , M , Käyhkö , J , Kirchner , N , Kjellstrom , E , Kulinski , K , Lehmann , A , Lindström , G , May , W , Miller , P A , Mohrholz , V , Muller-Karulis , B , Pavon-Jordan , D , Quante , M , Reckermann , M , Rutgersson , A , Savchuk , O P , Stendel , M , Tuomi , L , Viitasalo , M , Weisse , R & Zhang , W 2022 , ' Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary ' , Earth System Dynamics , vol. 13 , no. 1 , pp. 457-593 . https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022 ORCID: /0000-0001-5105-3426/work/128509249 9d03bdee-7f51-49a5-8585-2bc96b5623d9 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/354283 000771222800001 |
op_rights |
cc_by openAccess info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
457 |
op_container_end_page |
593 |
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1787426585759973376 |
spelling |
ftunivhelsihelda:oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/354283 2024-01-07T09:45:07+01:00 Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary Meier, H. E. Markus Kniebusch, Madline Dieterich, Christian Groeger, Matthias Zorita, Eduardo Elmgren, Ragnar Myrberg, Kai Ahola, Markus P. Bartosova, Alena Bonsdorff, Erik Boergel, Florian Capell, Rene Carlen, Ida Carlund, Thomas Carstensen, Jacob Christensen, Ole B. Dierschke, Volker Frauen, Claudia Frederiksen, Morten Gaget, Elie Galatius, Anders Haapala, Jari J. Halkka, Antti Hugelius, Gustaf Huenicke, Birgit Jaagus, Jaak Jussi, Mart Käyhkö, Jukka Kirchner, Nina Kjellstrom, Erik Kulinski, Karol Lehmann, Andreas Lindström, Göran May, Wilhelm Miller, Paul A. Mohrholz, Volker Muller-Karulis, Barbel Pavon-Jordan, Diego Quante, Markus Reckermann, Marcus Rutgersson, Anna Savchuk, Oleg P. Stendel, Martin Tuomi, Laura Viitasalo, Markku Weisse, Ralf Zhang, Wenyan Environmental Sciences 2023-02-07T19:02:10Z 137 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10138/354283 eng eng COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH 10.5194/esd-13-457-2022 Meier , H E M , Kniebusch , M , Dieterich , C , Groeger , M , Zorita , E , Elmgren , R , Myrberg , K , Ahola , M P , Bartosova , A , Bonsdorff , E , Boergel , F , Capell , R , Carlen , I , Carlund , T , Carstensen , J , Christensen , O B , Dierschke , V , Frauen , C , Frederiksen , M , Gaget , E , Galatius , A , Haapala , J J , Halkka , A , Hugelius , G , Huenicke , B , Jaagus , J , Jussi , M , Käyhkö , J , Kirchner , N , Kjellstrom , E , Kulinski , K , Lehmann , A , Lindström , G , May , W , Miller , P A , Mohrholz , V , Muller-Karulis , B , Pavon-Jordan , D , Quante , M , Reckermann , M , Rutgersson , A , Savchuk , O P , Stendel , M , Tuomi , L , Viitasalo , M , Weisse , R & Zhang , W 2022 , ' Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary ' , Earth System Dynamics , vol. 13 , no. 1 , pp. 457-593 . https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022 ORCID: /0000-0001-5105-3426/work/128509249 9d03bdee-7f51-49a5-8585-2bc96b5623d9 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/354283 000771222800001 cc_by openAccess info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Long-term changes North-atlantic oscillation Dissolved organic-carbon Diurnal temperature-range Storm-track sensitivity Herring clupea-harengus Net primary production Large-volume changes Acid-base system Nemo-nordic 1.0 1171 Geosciences Review Article publishedVersion 2023 ftunivhelsihelda 2023-12-14T00:12:48Z Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also ... Review North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation HELDA – University of Helsinki Open Repository Earth System Dynamics 13 1 457 593 |