A general method to combine environmental and life-safety consequences of Arctic ship accidents
Risk aggregation is the process of combining multiple individual risks to develop a better understanding of the overall risk on a system. Different risks can have different consequences and different units of measure. This study contributes to the process of risk aggregation by presenting a general...
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ftunivhelsihelda:oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/346663 2024-01-07T09:40:38+01:00 A general method to combine environmental and life-safety consequences of Arctic ship accidents Browne, Thomas Taylor, Rocky Veitch, Brian Helle, Inari Parviainen, Tuuli Khan, Faisal Smith, Doug Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme Helsinki Institute of Urban and Regional Studies (Urbaria) Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS) Past Present Sustainability (PAES) 2022-08-04T04:58:03Z 18 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10138/346663 eng eng Elsevier Scientific Publ. Co 10.1016/j.ssci.2022.105855 Browne , T , Taylor , R , Veitch , B , Helle , I , Parviainen , T , Khan , F & Smith , D 2022 , ' A general method to combine environmental and life-safety consequences of Arctic ship accidents ' , Safety Science , vol. 154 , 105855 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2022.105855 ORCID: /0000-0001-9006-0899/work/116873367 85132940392 64937c14-bdde-4f9a-85fb-456d303d283e http://hdl.handle.net/10138/346663 000821870500009 cc_by openAccess info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess 1172 Environmental sciences Arctic shipping Risk aggregation Consequence modelling Life-safety Socio-economic consequence Ecological consequence RISK-ASSESSMENT VALUATION Article publishedVersion 2022 ftunivhelsihelda 2023-12-14T00:15:51Z Risk aggregation is the process of combining multiple individual risks to develop a better understanding of the overall risk on a system. Different risks can have different consequences and different units of measure. This study contributes to the process of risk aggregation by presenting a general method to combine multiple consequences posed by an Arctic ship accident. The method considers ecological and socio-economic consequences of a potential oil spill, and life-safety consequences of a potential ship evacuation. Existing models for each consequence type are adopted. Individual consequence types are monetized and combined to quantify total consequence cost for a given accident scenario. A framework is proposed to assign a qualitative rating for total consequence severity. The qualitative scales of the framework are established using the quantitative method. Total consequence severity is evaluated for different ship types and regions in the Canadian Arctic. Results indicate that Arctic ship accidents involving oil tankers in environmentally sensitive regions and cruise ships in regions associated with long response times are worst-case scenarios, with similar total consequence severity levels. Implications for safe Arctic shipping are that on the basis of total consequence severity, mitigating the potential consequence severity of Arctic cruise operations is of near equal priority to that of Arctic tanker operations. Evaluating total consequence severity of potential Arctic ship accidents provides decision-makers and risk analysts with a data-driven tool to integrate multidisciplinary knowledge for the assessment, management, and communication of Arctic shipping risks. Peer reviewed Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic HELDA – University of Helsinki Open Repository Arctic Safety Science 154 105855 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
HELDA – University of Helsinki Open Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivhelsihelda |
language |
English |
topic |
1172 Environmental sciences Arctic shipping Risk aggregation Consequence modelling Life-safety Socio-economic consequence Ecological consequence RISK-ASSESSMENT VALUATION |
spellingShingle |
1172 Environmental sciences Arctic shipping Risk aggregation Consequence modelling Life-safety Socio-economic consequence Ecological consequence RISK-ASSESSMENT VALUATION Browne, Thomas Taylor, Rocky Veitch, Brian Helle, Inari Parviainen, Tuuli Khan, Faisal Smith, Doug A general method to combine environmental and life-safety consequences of Arctic ship accidents |
topic_facet |
1172 Environmental sciences Arctic shipping Risk aggregation Consequence modelling Life-safety Socio-economic consequence Ecological consequence RISK-ASSESSMENT VALUATION |
description |
Risk aggregation is the process of combining multiple individual risks to develop a better understanding of the overall risk on a system. Different risks can have different consequences and different units of measure. This study contributes to the process of risk aggregation by presenting a general method to combine multiple consequences posed by an Arctic ship accident. The method considers ecological and socio-economic consequences of a potential oil spill, and life-safety consequences of a potential ship evacuation. Existing models for each consequence type are adopted. Individual consequence types are monetized and combined to quantify total consequence cost for a given accident scenario. A framework is proposed to assign a qualitative rating for total consequence severity. The qualitative scales of the framework are established using the quantitative method. Total consequence severity is evaluated for different ship types and regions in the Canadian Arctic. Results indicate that Arctic ship accidents involving oil tankers in environmentally sensitive regions and cruise ships in regions associated with long response times are worst-case scenarios, with similar total consequence severity levels. Implications for safe Arctic shipping are that on the basis of total consequence severity, mitigating the potential consequence severity of Arctic cruise operations is of near equal priority to that of Arctic tanker operations. Evaluating total consequence severity of potential Arctic ship accidents provides decision-makers and risk analysts with a data-driven tool to integrate multidisciplinary knowledge for the assessment, management, and communication of Arctic shipping risks. Peer reviewed |
author2 |
Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme Helsinki Institute of Urban and Regional Studies (Urbaria) Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS) Past Present Sustainability (PAES) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Browne, Thomas Taylor, Rocky Veitch, Brian Helle, Inari Parviainen, Tuuli Khan, Faisal Smith, Doug |
author_facet |
Browne, Thomas Taylor, Rocky Veitch, Brian Helle, Inari Parviainen, Tuuli Khan, Faisal Smith, Doug |
author_sort |
Browne, Thomas |
title |
A general method to combine environmental and life-safety consequences of Arctic ship accidents |
title_short |
A general method to combine environmental and life-safety consequences of Arctic ship accidents |
title_full |
A general method to combine environmental and life-safety consequences of Arctic ship accidents |
title_fullStr |
A general method to combine environmental and life-safety consequences of Arctic ship accidents |
title_full_unstemmed |
A general method to combine environmental and life-safety consequences of Arctic ship accidents |
title_sort |
general method to combine environmental and life-safety consequences of arctic ship accidents |
publisher |
Elsevier Scientific Publ. Co |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10138/346663 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic |
op_relation |
10.1016/j.ssci.2022.105855 Browne , T , Taylor , R , Veitch , B , Helle , I , Parviainen , T , Khan , F & Smith , D 2022 , ' A general method to combine environmental and life-safety consequences of Arctic ship accidents ' , Safety Science , vol. 154 , 105855 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2022.105855 ORCID: /0000-0001-9006-0899/work/116873367 85132940392 64937c14-bdde-4f9a-85fb-456d303d283e http://hdl.handle.net/10138/346663 000821870500009 |
op_rights |
cc_by openAccess info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
container_title |
Safety Science |
container_volume |
154 |
container_start_page |
105855 |
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1787421470677270528 |