Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of th...
Published in: | Earth System Dynamics |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus GmbH
2022
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10138/342962 |
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ftunivhelsihelda:oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/342962 |
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Open Polar |
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Helsingfors Universitet: HELDA – Helsingin yliopiston digitaalinen arkisto |
op_collection_id |
ftunivhelsihelda |
language |
English |
topic |
ilmastovaikutukset ilmasto lämpeneminen historia tulevaisuus skenaariot merialueet Itämeri climatic effects climate warming history future scenarios sea areas Baltic Sea |
spellingShingle |
ilmastovaikutukset ilmasto lämpeneminen historia tulevaisuus skenaariot merialueet Itämeri climatic effects climate warming history future scenarios sea areas Baltic Sea Meier, H. E. Markus Kniebusch, Madline Dieterich, Christian Gröger, Matthias Zorita, Eduardo Elmgren, Ragnar Myrberg, Kai Ahola, Markus P. Bartosova, Alena Bonsdorff, Erik Börgel, Florian Capell, Rene Carlén, Ida Carlund, Thomas Carstensen, Jacob Christensen, Ole B. Dierschke, Volker Frauen, Claudia Frederiksen, Morten Gaget, Elie Galatius, Anders Haapala, Jari J. Halkka, Antti Hugelius, Gustaf Hünicke, Birgit Jaagus, Jaak Jüssi, Mart Käyhkö, Jukka Kirchner, Nina Kjellström, Erik Kulinski, Karol Lehmann, Andreas Lindström, Göran May, Wilhelm Miller, Paul A. Mohrholz, Volker Müller-Karulis, Bärbel Pavón-Jordán, Diego Quante, Markus Reckermann, Marcus Rutgersson, Anna Savchuk, Oleg P. Stendel, Martin Tuomi, Laura Viitasalo, Markku Weisse, Ralf Zhang, Wenyan Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary |
topic_facet |
ilmastovaikutukset ilmasto lämpeneminen historia tulevaisuus skenaariot merialueet Itämeri climatic effects climate warming history future scenarios sea areas Baltic Sea |
description |
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also ... |
author2 |
Suomen ympäristökeskus The Finnish Environment Institute |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Meier, H. E. Markus Kniebusch, Madline Dieterich, Christian Gröger, Matthias Zorita, Eduardo Elmgren, Ragnar Myrberg, Kai Ahola, Markus P. Bartosova, Alena Bonsdorff, Erik Börgel, Florian Capell, Rene Carlén, Ida Carlund, Thomas Carstensen, Jacob Christensen, Ole B. Dierschke, Volker Frauen, Claudia Frederiksen, Morten Gaget, Elie Galatius, Anders Haapala, Jari J. Halkka, Antti Hugelius, Gustaf Hünicke, Birgit Jaagus, Jaak Jüssi, Mart Käyhkö, Jukka Kirchner, Nina Kjellström, Erik Kulinski, Karol Lehmann, Andreas Lindström, Göran May, Wilhelm Miller, Paul A. Mohrholz, Volker Müller-Karulis, Bärbel Pavón-Jordán, Diego Quante, Markus Reckermann, Marcus Rutgersson, Anna Savchuk, Oleg P. Stendel, Martin Tuomi, Laura Viitasalo, Markku Weisse, Ralf Zhang, Wenyan |
author_facet |
Meier, H. E. Markus Kniebusch, Madline Dieterich, Christian Gröger, Matthias Zorita, Eduardo Elmgren, Ragnar Myrberg, Kai Ahola, Markus P. Bartosova, Alena Bonsdorff, Erik Börgel, Florian Capell, Rene Carlén, Ida Carlund, Thomas Carstensen, Jacob Christensen, Ole B. Dierschke, Volker Frauen, Claudia Frederiksen, Morten Gaget, Elie Galatius, Anders Haapala, Jari J. Halkka, Antti Hugelius, Gustaf Hünicke, Birgit Jaagus, Jaak Jüssi, Mart Käyhkö, Jukka Kirchner, Nina Kjellström, Erik Kulinski, Karol Lehmann, Andreas Lindström, Göran May, Wilhelm Miller, Paul A. Mohrholz, Volker Müller-Karulis, Bärbel Pavón-Jordán, Diego Quante, Markus Reckermann, Marcus Rutgersson, Anna Savchuk, Oleg P. Stendel, Martin Tuomi, Laura Viitasalo, Markku Weisse, Ralf Zhang, Wenyan |
author_sort |
Meier, H. E. Markus |
title |
Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary |
title_short |
Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary |
title_full |
Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary |
title_fullStr |
Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary |
title_sort |
climate change in the baltic sea region : a summary |
publisher |
Copernicus GmbH |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10138/342962 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
10.5194/esd-13-457-2022 Earth System Dynamics 2190-4987 1 13 Meier, H. E. M., Kniebusch, M., Dieterich, C., Gröger, M., Zorita, E., Elmgren, R., Myrberg, K., Ahola, M. P., Bartosova, A., Bonsdorff, E., Börgel, F., Capell, R., Carlén, I., Carlund, T., Carstensen, J., Christensen, O. B., Dierschke, V., Frauen, C., Frederiksen, M., Gaget, E., Galatius, A., Haapala, J. J., Halkka, A., Hugelius, G., Hünicke, B., Jaagus, J., Jüssi, M., Käyhkö, J., Kirchner, N., Kjellström, E., Kulinski, K., Lehmann, A., Lindström, G., May, W., Miller, P. A., Mohrholz, V., Müller-Karulis, B., Pavón-Jordán, D., Quante, M., Reckermann, M., Rutgersson, A., Savchuk, O. P., Stendel, M., Tuomi, L., Viitasalo, M., Weisse, R., and Zhang, W.: Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/342962 URN:NBN:fi-fe2022042230102 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
457 |
op_container_end_page |
593 |
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1774720890429243392 |
spelling |
ftunivhelsihelda:oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/342962 2023-08-20T04:08:34+02:00 Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary Meier, H. E. Markus Kniebusch, Madline Dieterich, Christian Gröger, Matthias Zorita, Eduardo Elmgren, Ragnar Myrberg, Kai Ahola, Markus P. Bartosova, Alena Bonsdorff, Erik Börgel, Florian Capell, Rene Carlén, Ida Carlund, Thomas Carstensen, Jacob Christensen, Ole B. Dierschke, Volker Frauen, Claudia Frederiksen, Morten Gaget, Elie Galatius, Anders Haapala, Jari J. Halkka, Antti Hugelius, Gustaf Hünicke, Birgit Jaagus, Jaak Jüssi, Mart Käyhkö, Jukka Kirchner, Nina Kjellström, Erik Kulinski, Karol Lehmann, Andreas Lindström, Göran May, Wilhelm Miller, Paul A. Mohrholz, Volker Müller-Karulis, Bärbel Pavón-Jordán, Diego Quante, Markus Reckermann, Marcus Rutgersson, Anna Savchuk, Oleg P. Stendel, Martin Tuomi, Laura Viitasalo, Markku Weisse, Ralf Zhang, Wenyan Suomen ympäristökeskus The Finnish Environment Institute 2022-04-22T08:57:59Z 457-593 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10138/342962 eng eng Copernicus GmbH 10.5194/esd-13-457-2022 Earth System Dynamics 2190-4987 1 13 Meier, H. E. M., Kniebusch, M., Dieterich, C., Gröger, M., Zorita, E., Elmgren, R., Myrberg, K., Ahola, M. P., Bartosova, A., Bonsdorff, E., Börgel, F., Capell, R., Carlén, I., Carlund, T., Carstensen, J., Christensen, O. B., Dierschke, V., Frauen, C., Frederiksen, M., Gaget, E., Galatius, A., Haapala, J. J., Halkka, A., Hugelius, G., Hünicke, B., Jaagus, J., Jüssi, M., Käyhkö, J., Kirchner, N., Kjellström, E., Kulinski, K., Lehmann, A., Lindström, G., May, W., Miller, P. A., Mohrholz, V., Müller-Karulis, B., Pavón-Jordán, D., Quante, M., Reckermann, M., Rutgersson, A., Savchuk, O. P., Stendel, M., Tuomi, L., Viitasalo, M., Weisse, R., and Zhang, W.: Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/342962 URN:NBN:fi-fe2022042230102 CC BY 4.0 openAccess ilmastovaikutukset ilmasto lämpeneminen historia tulevaisuus skenaariot merialueet Itämeri climatic effects climate warming history future scenarios sea areas Baltic Sea A2 Review article, Literature review, Systematic review A2 Katsausartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä 2022 ftunivhelsihelda https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022 2023-07-28T06:29:29Z Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Helsingfors Universitet: HELDA – Helsingin yliopiston digitaalinen arkisto Earth System Dynamics 13 1 457 593 |