Understanding the climate effects of anthropogenic aerosols

• Main Author: Nordling, Kalle
• Format: Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: Ilmatieteen laitos 2021
• Subjects: climate models; aerosols; uncertainty; ilmaston mallinnus; aerosolit; epävarmuus; Arctic; Climate change; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/335833

Anthropogenic aerosols alter the climate by scattering and absorbing the incoming solar radiation and by modifying clouds’ optical properties, causing a global cooling or warming effect. Anthropogenic aerosols are partly co-emitted with anthropogenic greenhouse gases, and future climate mitigation actions lead to the decline of anthropogenic aerosols’ cooling effect. However, the exact cooling effect is still uncertain. Part of this uncertainty is related to the structural differences of current climate models. This work evaluates the present-day anthropogenic aerosol temperature and precipitation effect and factors affecting the model difference. The key objectives of this thesis were: 1) What are the climate effects of present-day anthropogenic aerosols?, 2) What mechanisms drive the model-to-model differences?, and 3) How do future reductions affect local and global climates? The global models ECHAM6 and NorESM1 were used to evaluate the present-day climate effects with theidentical anthropogenic aerosol scheme MACv2-SP. Results reveal that an identical anthropogenic aerosol description does not reduce the uncertainty related to anthropogenic aerosol climate effects, and the difference in the estimated difference is due to model dynamics and oceans. The key mechanism driving the difference in the models was evaluated using data from the Precipitation Driven Model Intercomparison Project (PRMIP). Similar mechanisms drive the model-to-model difference for greenhouse gases and aerosols, where the key drivers are the differences in water vapor, the vertical temperature structure of the atmosphere, and sea ice and snow cover changes. However, on a regional scale, the key drivers differ. Future anthropogenic aerosol effects were evaluated using new CMIP6 data. This work shows the importance of anthropogenic aerosols for current and future climate change. For amore accurate assessment of climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosols, one needs to also consider remote effects of the local aerosols. The Arctic regions are ...