Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties
The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of d...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10138/333383 |
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HELDA – University of Helsinki Open Repository |
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1171 Geosciences 114 Physical sciences |
spellingShingle |
1171 Geosciences 114 Physical sciences Virkkala, Anna-Maria Aalto, Juha Rogers, Brendan M. Tagesson, Torbern Treat, Claire C. Natali, Susan M. Watts, Jennifer D. Potter, Stefano Lehtonen, Aleksi Mauritz, Marguerite Schuur, Edward A. G. Kochendorfer, John Zona, Donatella Oechel, Walter Kobayashi, Hideki Humphreys, Elyn Goeckede, Mathias Iwata, Hiroki Lafleur, Peter M. Euskirchen, Eugenie S. Bokhorst, Stef Marushchak, Maija Martikainen, Pertti J. Elberling, Bo Voigt, Carolina Biasi, Christina Sonnentag, Oliver Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. Ueyama, Masahito Celis, Gerardo St.Louis, Vincent L. Emmerton, Craig A. Peichl, Matthias Chi, Jinshu Jarveoja, Jarvi Nilsson, Mats B. Oberbauer, Steven F. Torn, Margaret S. Park, Sang-Jong Dolman, Han Mammarella, Ivan Chae, Namyi Poyatos, Rafael Lopez-Blanco, Efren Christensen, Torben Rojle Kwon, Min Jung Sachs, Torsten Holl, David Luoto, Miska Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties |
topic_facet |
1171 Geosciences 114 Physical sciences |
description |
The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990-2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km(2)) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE -46 and -29 g C m(-2) yr(-1), respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and -2 g C m(-2) yr(-1)). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990-2015, although uncertainty remains high. Peer reviewed |
author2 |
Department of Geosciences and Geography Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS) BioGeoClimate Modelling Lab Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) Micrometeorology and biogeochemical cycles |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Virkkala, Anna-Maria Aalto, Juha Rogers, Brendan M. Tagesson, Torbern Treat, Claire C. Natali, Susan M. Watts, Jennifer D. Potter, Stefano Lehtonen, Aleksi Mauritz, Marguerite Schuur, Edward A. G. Kochendorfer, John Zona, Donatella Oechel, Walter Kobayashi, Hideki Humphreys, Elyn Goeckede, Mathias Iwata, Hiroki Lafleur, Peter M. Euskirchen, Eugenie S. Bokhorst, Stef Marushchak, Maija Martikainen, Pertti J. Elberling, Bo Voigt, Carolina Biasi, Christina Sonnentag, Oliver Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. Ueyama, Masahito Celis, Gerardo St.Louis, Vincent L. Emmerton, Craig A. Peichl, Matthias Chi, Jinshu Jarveoja, Jarvi Nilsson, Mats B. Oberbauer, Steven F. Torn, Margaret S. Park, Sang-Jong Dolman, Han Mammarella, Ivan Chae, Namyi Poyatos, Rafael Lopez-Blanco, Efren Christensen, Torben Rojle Kwon, Min Jung Sachs, Torsten Holl, David Luoto, Miska |
author_facet |
Virkkala, Anna-Maria Aalto, Juha Rogers, Brendan M. Tagesson, Torbern Treat, Claire C. Natali, Susan M. Watts, Jennifer D. Potter, Stefano Lehtonen, Aleksi Mauritz, Marguerite Schuur, Edward A. G. Kochendorfer, John Zona, Donatella Oechel, Walter Kobayashi, Hideki Humphreys, Elyn Goeckede, Mathias Iwata, Hiroki Lafleur, Peter M. Euskirchen, Eugenie S. Bokhorst, Stef Marushchak, Maija Martikainen, Pertti J. Elberling, Bo Voigt, Carolina Biasi, Christina Sonnentag, Oliver Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. Ueyama, Masahito Celis, Gerardo St.Louis, Vincent L. Emmerton, Craig A. Peichl, Matthias Chi, Jinshu Jarveoja, Jarvi Nilsson, Mats B. Oberbauer, Steven F. Torn, Margaret S. Park, Sang-Jong Dolman, Han Mammarella, Ivan Chae, Namyi Poyatos, Rafael Lopez-Blanco, Efren Christensen, Torben Rojle Kwon, Min Jung Sachs, Torsten Holl, David Luoto, Miska |
author_sort |
Virkkala, Anna-Maria |
title |
Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties |
title_short |
Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties |
title_full |
Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties |
title_fullStr |
Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties |
title_full_unstemmed |
Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties |
title_sort |
statistical upscaling of ecosystem co2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : regional patterns and uncertainties |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10138/333383 |
genre |
Arctic Tundra |
genre_facet |
Arctic Tundra |
op_relation |
10.1111/gcb.15659 Humboldt Fellowship for Experienced Researchers; European Commission, Grant/Award Number: H2020-BG-09-2016 and 727890; Helsingin Yliopisto; Jenny ja Antti Wihurin Rahasto; Vaisala fund; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Alfred Kordelinin Saatio; Arctic Challenge for Sustainability, Grant/Award Number: JPMXD1420318865; Suomen Kulttuurirahasto; Netherlands Earth System Science Centre; Korean government, Grant/Award Number: KOPRI--PN21011, NRF-2021M1A5A1065679, NRF-2021M1A5A1065425 and NRF-2018R1D1A1B07047778; Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Grant/Award Number: 8414; Skogssallskapet, Grant/Award Number: 2018-485-Steg 2 2017; Office of Biological and Environmental Research; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council; Svenska Forskningsradet Formas, Grant/Award Number: 2016-01289 and 942-2015-49; Vetenskapsradet, Grant/Award Number: 2017-05268; Norges Forskningsrad, Grant/Award Number: 274711; NASA, Grant/Award Number: NNH17ZDA001N, NNX15AT81A and NNX17AE13G; Danmarks Grundforskningsfond, Grant/Award Number: CENPERM DNRF100; Nordic Center of Excellence; Arctic Data Center; EU FP7-ENV, Grant/Award Number: 282700; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council Discovery Grants; Suomen Akatemia, Grant/Award Number: 286950, 312912, 314630, 317054, 325680, 332196, 337549, 33761 and 337552; Greenland Research Council, Grant/Award Number: 80.35; Canada Research Chairs; US Geological Survey; Nordenskiold-samfundet; Swedish National Space Board; NSF Research, Synthesis, and Knowledge Transfer in a Changing Arctic: Science Support for the Study of Environmental Arctic Change, Grant/Award Number: 1331083; NSF PLR Arctic System Science Research Networking Activities (Permafrost Carbon Network: Synthesizing Flux Observations for Benchmarking Model Projections of Permafrost Carbon Exchange), Grant/Award Number: 1931333; NSF grant, Grant/Award Number: 1203583, 1204263, 1702797, 1702798, DEB-1636476, PLR1504381, PLR1836898, AON 856864, 1304271, 0632264 and 1107892; EU 6th Framework Programme, Grant/Award Number: 036993; Danish National Research Foundation, Grant/Award Number: DNRF100; Research Council of Norway; Swedish Research Council, Grant/Award Number: contract #2018-03966; the national research infrastructures SITES and ICOS, funded by VR and partner institutes Virkkala , A-M , Aalto , J , Rogers , B M , Tagesson , T , Treat , C C , Natali , S M , Watts , J D , Potter , S , Lehtonen , A , Mauritz , M , Schuur , E A G , Kochendorfer , J , Zona , D , Oechel , W , Kobayashi , H , Humphreys , E , Goeckede , M , Iwata , H , Lafleur , P M , Euskirchen , E S , Bokhorst , S , Marushchak , M , Martikainen , P J , Elberling , B , Voigt , C , Biasi , C , Sonnentag , O , Parmentier , F-J W , Ueyama , M , Celis , G , St.Louis , V L , Emmerton , C A , Peichl , M , Chi , J , Jarveoja , J , Nilsson , M B , Oberbauer , S F , Torn , M S , Park , S-J , Dolman , H , Mammarella , I , Chae , N , Poyatos , R , Lopez-Blanco , E , Christensen , T R , Kwon , M J , Sachs , T , Holl , D & Luoto , M 2021 , ' Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties ' , Global Change Biology , vol. 27 , no. 17 , pp. 4040-4059 . https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659 ORCID: /0000-0001-6203-5143/work/98777186 ORCID: /0000-0002-8516-3356/work/98777404 ORCID: /0000-0001-6819-4911/work/98778269 ORCID: /0000-0003-4877-2918/work/98778410 85107431149 3454fa63-c052-4d3b-bb18-2c212426ab2f http://hdl.handle.net/10138/333383 000659453000001 |
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cc_by openAccess info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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Global Change Biology |
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27 |
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17 |
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4040 |
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4059 |
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1787421533198614528 |
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ftunivhelsihelda:oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/333383 2024-01-07T09:40:43+01:00 Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties Virkkala, Anna-Maria Aalto, Juha Rogers, Brendan M. Tagesson, Torbern Treat, Claire C. Natali, Susan M. Watts, Jennifer D. Potter, Stefano Lehtonen, Aleksi Mauritz, Marguerite Schuur, Edward A. G. Kochendorfer, John Zona, Donatella Oechel, Walter Kobayashi, Hideki Humphreys, Elyn Goeckede, Mathias Iwata, Hiroki Lafleur, Peter M. Euskirchen, Eugenie S. Bokhorst, Stef Marushchak, Maija Martikainen, Pertti J. Elberling, Bo Voigt, Carolina Biasi, Christina Sonnentag, Oliver Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. Ueyama, Masahito Celis, Gerardo St.Louis, Vincent L. Emmerton, Craig A. Peichl, Matthias Chi, Jinshu Jarveoja, Jarvi Nilsson, Mats B. Oberbauer, Steven F. Torn, Margaret S. Park, Sang-Jong Dolman, Han Mammarella, Ivan Chae, Namyi Poyatos, Rafael Lopez-Blanco, Efren Christensen, Torben Rojle Kwon, Min Jung Sachs, Torsten Holl, David Luoto, Miska Department of Geosciences and Geography Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS) BioGeoClimate Modelling Lab Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) Micrometeorology and biogeochemical cycles 2021-08-21T07:56:01Z 20 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10138/333383 eng eng Wiley 10.1111/gcb.15659 Humboldt Fellowship for Experienced Researchers; European Commission, Grant/Award Number: H2020-BG-09-2016 and 727890; Helsingin Yliopisto; Jenny ja Antti Wihurin Rahasto; Vaisala fund; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Alfred Kordelinin Saatio; Arctic Challenge for Sustainability, Grant/Award Number: JPMXD1420318865; Suomen Kulttuurirahasto; Netherlands Earth System Science Centre; Korean government, Grant/Award Number: KOPRI--PN21011, NRF-2021M1A5A1065679, NRF-2021M1A5A1065425 and NRF-2018R1D1A1B07047778; Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Grant/Award Number: 8414; Skogssallskapet, Grant/Award Number: 2018-485-Steg 2 2017; Office of Biological and Environmental Research; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council; Svenska Forskningsradet Formas, Grant/Award Number: 2016-01289 and 942-2015-49; Vetenskapsradet, Grant/Award Number: 2017-05268; Norges Forskningsrad, Grant/Award Number: 274711; NASA, Grant/Award Number: NNH17ZDA001N, NNX15AT81A and NNX17AE13G; Danmarks Grundforskningsfond, Grant/Award Number: CENPERM DNRF100; Nordic Center of Excellence; Arctic Data Center; EU FP7-ENV, Grant/Award Number: 282700; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council Discovery Grants; Suomen Akatemia, Grant/Award Number: 286950, 312912, 314630, 317054, 325680, 332196, 337549, 33761 and 337552; Greenland Research Council, Grant/Award Number: 80.35; Canada Research Chairs; US Geological Survey; Nordenskiold-samfundet; Swedish National Space Board; NSF Research, Synthesis, and Knowledge Transfer in a Changing Arctic: Science Support for the Study of Environmental Arctic Change, Grant/Award Number: 1331083; NSF PLR Arctic System Science Research Networking Activities (Permafrost Carbon Network: Synthesizing Flux Observations for Benchmarking Model Projections of Permafrost Carbon Exchange), Grant/Award Number: 1931333; NSF grant, Grant/Award Number: 1203583, 1204263, 1702797, 1702798, DEB-1636476, PLR1504381, PLR1836898, AON 856864, 1304271, 0632264 and 1107892; EU 6th Framework Programme, Grant/Award Number: 036993; Danish National Research Foundation, Grant/Award Number: DNRF100; Research Council of Norway; Swedish Research Council, Grant/Award Number: contract #2018-03966; the national research infrastructures SITES and ICOS, funded by VR and partner institutes Virkkala , A-M , Aalto , J , Rogers , B M , Tagesson , T , Treat , C C , Natali , S M , Watts , J D , Potter , S , Lehtonen , A , Mauritz , M , Schuur , E A G , Kochendorfer , J , Zona , D , Oechel , W , Kobayashi , H , Humphreys , E , Goeckede , M , Iwata , H , Lafleur , P M , Euskirchen , E S , Bokhorst , S , Marushchak , M , Martikainen , P J , Elberling , B , Voigt , C , Biasi , C , Sonnentag , O , Parmentier , F-J W , Ueyama , M , Celis , G , St.Louis , V L , Emmerton , C A , Peichl , M , Chi , J , Jarveoja , J , Nilsson , M B , Oberbauer , S F , Torn , M S , Park , S-J , Dolman , H , Mammarella , I , Chae , N , Poyatos , R , Lopez-Blanco , E , Christensen , T R , Kwon , M J , Sachs , T , Holl , D & Luoto , M 2021 , ' Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties ' , Global Change Biology , vol. 27 , no. 17 , pp. 4040-4059 . https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659 ORCID: /0000-0001-6203-5143/work/98777186 ORCID: /0000-0002-8516-3356/work/98777404 ORCID: /0000-0001-6819-4911/work/98778269 ORCID: /0000-0003-4877-2918/work/98778410 85107431149 3454fa63-c052-4d3b-bb18-2c212426ab2f http://hdl.handle.net/10138/333383 000659453000001 cc_by openAccess info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess 1171 Geosciences 114 Physical sciences Article publishedVersion 2021 ftunivhelsihelda 2023-12-14T00:13:31Z The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990-2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km(2)) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE -46 and -29 g C m(-2) yr(-1), respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and -2 g C m(-2) yr(-1)). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990-2015, although uncertainty remains high. Peer reviewed Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Tundra HELDA – University of Helsinki Open Repository Global Change Biology 27 17 4040 4059 |