Probability of a ship becoming beset in ice along the Northern Sea Route -- a Bayesian analysis of real-life data
Ships operating in ice-infested Arctic waters are exposed to a range of ship-ice interaction related hazards. One of the most dangerous of these is the possibility of a ship becoming beset in ice, meaning that a ship is surrounded by ice preventing it from maneuvering under its own power. Such a bes...
Published in: | Cold Regions Science and Technology |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Elsevier Scientific Publ. Co
2021
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10138/328240 |
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ftunivhelsihelda:oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/328240 |
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openpolar |
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Open Polar |
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HELDA – University of Helsinki Open Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivhelsihelda |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic Automatic Identification System (AIS) Bayesian inference Ice besetting Ice data Ice loads Maritime traffic Northern Sea Route Polar Shipping Ships 218 Environmental engineering 1171 Geosciences |
spellingShingle |
Arctic Automatic Identification System (AIS) Bayesian inference Ice besetting Ice data Ice loads Maritime traffic Northern Sea Route Polar Shipping Ships 218 Environmental engineering 1171 Geosciences Vanhatalo, Jarno Huuhtanen, Juri Bergström, Martin Helle, Inari Mäkinen, Jussi Antti-Eerikki Kujala, Pentti Probability of a ship becoming beset in ice along the Northern Sea Route -- a Bayesian analysis of real-life data |
topic_facet |
Arctic Automatic Identification System (AIS) Bayesian inference Ice besetting Ice data Ice loads Maritime traffic Northern Sea Route Polar Shipping Ships 218 Environmental engineering 1171 Geosciences |
description |
Ships operating in ice-infested Arctic waters are exposed to a range of ship-ice interaction related hazards. One of the most dangerous of these is the possibility of a ship becoming beset in ice, meaning that a ship is surrounded by ice preventing it from maneuvering under its own power. Such a besetting event may not only result in severe operational disruption, but also expose a ship to severe ice loading or cause it to drift towards shallow water. This may cause significant structural damage to a ship and potentially jeopardize its safety. To support safe and sustainable Arctic shipping operations, this article presents a probabilistic approach to assess the probability of a ship becoming beset in ice. To this end, the proposed approach combines different types of data, including Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, satellite ice data, as well as data on real-life ship besetting events. Based on this data, using a hierarchical Bayesian model, the proposed approach calculates the probability of a besetting event as a function of the Polar Ship Category of a ship, sea area, and the distance travelled in the prevailing ice concentration. The utility of the proposed approach, e.g. in supporting spatiotemporal risk assessments of Arctic shipping activities as well as Arctic voyage planning, is demonstrated through a case study in which the approach is applied to ships operating in the Northern Sea Route (NSR) area. The outcomes of the case study indicate that the probability of besetting is strongly dependent on the Polar Ship Category of a ship and that the probability increases significantly with higher ice concentrations. The sea area, on the other hand, does not appear to significantly affect the probability of besetting. Peer reviewed |
author2 |
Department of Mathematics and Statistics Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme Environmental and Ecological Statistics Group Biostatistics Helsinki Research Centre for Ecological Change Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Vanhatalo, Jarno Huuhtanen, Juri Bergström, Martin Helle, Inari Mäkinen, Jussi Antti-Eerikki Kujala, Pentti |
author_facet |
Vanhatalo, Jarno Huuhtanen, Juri Bergström, Martin Helle, Inari Mäkinen, Jussi Antti-Eerikki Kujala, Pentti |
author_sort |
Vanhatalo, Jarno |
title |
Probability of a ship becoming beset in ice along the Northern Sea Route -- a Bayesian analysis of real-life data |
title_short |
Probability of a ship becoming beset in ice along the Northern Sea Route -- a Bayesian analysis of real-life data |
title_full |
Probability of a ship becoming beset in ice along the Northern Sea Route -- a Bayesian analysis of real-life data |
title_fullStr |
Probability of a ship becoming beset in ice along the Northern Sea Route -- a Bayesian analysis of real-life data |
title_full_unstemmed |
Probability of a ship becoming beset in ice along the Northern Sea Route -- a Bayesian analysis of real-life data |
title_sort |
probability of a ship becoming beset in ice along the northern sea route -- a bayesian analysis of real-life data |
publisher |
Elsevier Scientific Publ. Co |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10138/328240 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Northern Sea Route |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Northern Sea Route |
op_relation |
10.1016/j.coldregions.2021.103238 Suomen Akatemia Projektilaskutus This project has received funding from the Lloyd's Register Foundation , a charitable foundation, helping to protect life and property by supporting engineering-related education, public engagement and the application of research ( www.lrfoundation.org.uk ). The project has also received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement number: 723526 (Project name: SEDNA - Safe maritime operations under extreme conditions: the Arctic case). JV and JM have additionally obtained support from the Academy of Finland (grant 317255 ) and IH from the Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS) , University of Helsinki . Vanhatalo , J , Huuhtanen , J , Bergström , M , Helle , I , Mäkinen , J A-E & Kujala , P 2021 , ' Probability of a ship becoming beset in ice along the Northern Sea Route -- a Bayesian analysis of real-life data ' , Cold Regions Science and Technology , vol. 184 , 103238 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2021.103238 ORCID: /0000-0001-9006-0899/work/91247106 ORCID: /0000-0001-6599-8279/work/91249854 85100032465 8f5b90b4-ffe8-4321-aa79-2c316e8f5981 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/328240 000621599800003 |
op_rights |
cc_by_nc_nd openAccess info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
container_title |
Cold Regions Science and Technology |
container_volume |
184 |
container_start_page |
103238 |
_version_ |
1787421572757192704 |
spelling |
ftunivhelsihelda:oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/328240 2024-01-07T09:40:47+01:00 Probability of a ship becoming beset in ice along the Northern Sea Route -- a Bayesian analysis of real-life data Vanhatalo, Jarno Huuhtanen, Juri Bergström, Martin Helle, Inari Mäkinen, Jussi Antti-Eerikki Kujala, Pentti Department of Mathematics and Statistics Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme Environmental and Ecological Statistics Group Biostatistics Helsinki Research Centre for Ecological Change Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS) 2021-03-22T05:59:01Z 9 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10138/328240 eng eng Elsevier Scientific Publ. Co 10.1016/j.coldregions.2021.103238 Suomen Akatemia Projektilaskutus This project has received funding from the Lloyd's Register Foundation , a charitable foundation, helping to protect life and property by supporting engineering-related education, public engagement and the application of research ( www.lrfoundation.org.uk ). The project has also received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement number: 723526 (Project name: SEDNA - Safe maritime operations under extreme conditions: the Arctic case). JV and JM have additionally obtained support from the Academy of Finland (grant 317255 ) and IH from the Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS) , University of Helsinki . Vanhatalo , J , Huuhtanen , J , Bergström , M , Helle , I , Mäkinen , J A-E & Kujala , P 2021 , ' Probability of a ship becoming beset in ice along the Northern Sea Route -- a Bayesian analysis of real-life data ' , Cold Regions Science and Technology , vol. 184 , 103238 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2021.103238 ORCID: /0000-0001-9006-0899/work/91247106 ORCID: /0000-0001-6599-8279/work/91249854 85100032465 8f5b90b4-ffe8-4321-aa79-2c316e8f5981 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/328240 000621599800003 cc_by_nc_nd openAccess info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Arctic Automatic Identification System (AIS) Bayesian inference Ice besetting Ice data Ice loads Maritime traffic Northern Sea Route Polar Shipping Ships 218 Environmental engineering 1171 Geosciences Article publishedVersion 2021 ftunivhelsihelda 2023-12-14T00:03:11Z Ships operating in ice-infested Arctic waters are exposed to a range of ship-ice interaction related hazards. One of the most dangerous of these is the possibility of a ship becoming beset in ice, meaning that a ship is surrounded by ice preventing it from maneuvering under its own power. Such a besetting event may not only result in severe operational disruption, but also expose a ship to severe ice loading or cause it to drift towards shallow water. This may cause significant structural damage to a ship and potentially jeopardize its safety. To support safe and sustainable Arctic shipping operations, this article presents a probabilistic approach to assess the probability of a ship becoming beset in ice. To this end, the proposed approach combines different types of data, including Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, satellite ice data, as well as data on real-life ship besetting events. Based on this data, using a hierarchical Bayesian model, the proposed approach calculates the probability of a besetting event as a function of the Polar Ship Category of a ship, sea area, and the distance travelled in the prevailing ice concentration. The utility of the proposed approach, e.g. in supporting spatiotemporal risk assessments of Arctic shipping activities as well as Arctic voyage planning, is demonstrated through a case study in which the approach is applied to ships operating in the Northern Sea Route (NSR) area. The outcomes of the case study indicate that the probability of besetting is strongly dependent on the Polar Ship Category of a ship and that the probability increases significantly with higher ice concentrations. The sea area, on the other hand, does not appear to significantly affect the probability of besetting. Peer reviewed Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Northern Sea Route HELDA – University of Helsinki Open Repository Arctic Cold Regions Science and Technology 184 103238 |