Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming
We investigate factors influencing European winter (DJFM) air temperatures for the period 1979-2015 with the focus on changes during the recent period of rapid Arctic warming (1998-2015). We employ meteorological reanalyses analysed with a combination of correlation analysis, two pattern clustering...
Published in: | International Journal of Climatology |
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10138/314241 |
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ftunivhelsihelda:oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/314241 2024-01-07T09:40:42+01:00 Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming Vihma, Timo Graversen, Rune G. Chen, Linling Handorf, Dörthe Skific, Natasa Francis, Jennifer A. Tyrrell, Nicholas L Hall, Richard Hanna, Edward Uotila, Petteri Dethloff, Klaus Karpechko, Alexey Björnsson, Halldor Overland, James E. INAR Physics 2020-04-22T12:43:03Z 21 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10138/314241 eng eng Wiley 10.1002/joc.6225 Vihma , T , Graversen , R G , Chen , L , Handorf , D , Skific , N , Francis , J A , Tyrrell , N L , Hall , R , Hanna , E , Uotila , P , Dethloff , K , Karpechko , A , Björnsson , H & Overland , J E 2020 , ' Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming ' , International Journal of Climatology , vol. 40 , no. 1 , pp. 509-529 . https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6225 ORCID: /0000-0002-2939-7561/work/72782177 2250e0af-24ed-4761-8a68-991ccd0d3b10 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/314241 000480498400001 cc_by_nc cc_by_nd openAccess info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess 114 Physical sciences AMPLIFICATION ATLANTIC CLIMATE VARIABILITY ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION Arctic EXTREME WEATHER European weather IMPACT MIDLATITUDE WEATHER NORTH-ATLANTIC North Atlantic oscillation REGIMES SEA-ICE REDUCTION STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX Scandinavian pattern subsidence heating teleconnections Article publishedVersion submittedVersion 2020 ftunivhelsihelda 2023-12-14T00:12:55Z We investigate factors influencing European winter (DJFM) air temperatures for the period 1979-2015 with the focus on changes during the recent period of rapid Arctic warming (1998-2015). We employ meteorological reanalyses analysed with a combination of correlation analysis, two pattern clustering techniques, and back-trajectory airmass identification. In all five selected European regions, severe cold winter events lasting at least 4 days are significantly correlated with warm Arctic episodes. Relationships during opposite conditions of warm Europe/cold Arctic are also significant. Correlations have become consistently stronger since 1998. Large-scale pattern analysis reveals that cold spells are associated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO-) and the positive phase of the Scandinavian (SCA+) pattern, which in turn are correlated with the divergence of dry-static energy transport. Warm European extremes are associated with opposite phases of these patterns and the convergence of latent heat transport. Airmass trajectory analysis is consistent with these findings, as airmasses associated with extreme cold events typically originate over continents, while warm events tend to occur with prevailing maritime airmasses. Despite Arctic-wide warming, significant cooling has occurred in northeastern Europe owing to a decrease in adiabatic subsidence heating in airmasses arriving from the southeast, along with increased occurrence of circulation patterns favouring low temperature advection. These dynamic effects dominated over the increased mean temperature of most circulation patterns. Lagged correlation analysis reveals that SCA- and NAO+ are typically preceded by cold Arctic anomalies during the previous 2-3 months, which may aid seasonal forecasting. Peer reviewed Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice HELDA – University of Helsinki Open Repository Arctic International Journal of Climatology 40 1 509 529 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
HELDA – University of Helsinki Open Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivhelsihelda |
language |
English |
topic |
114 Physical sciences AMPLIFICATION ATLANTIC CLIMATE VARIABILITY ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION Arctic EXTREME WEATHER European weather IMPACT MIDLATITUDE WEATHER NORTH-ATLANTIC North Atlantic oscillation REGIMES SEA-ICE REDUCTION STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX Scandinavian pattern subsidence heating teleconnections |
spellingShingle |
114 Physical sciences AMPLIFICATION ATLANTIC CLIMATE VARIABILITY ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION Arctic EXTREME WEATHER European weather IMPACT MIDLATITUDE WEATHER NORTH-ATLANTIC North Atlantic oscillation REGIMES SEA-ICE REDUCTION STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX Scandinavian pattern subsidence heating teleconnections Vihma, Timo Graversen, Rune G. Chen, Linling Handorf, Dörthe Skific, Natasa Francis, Jennifer A. Tyrrell, Nicholas L Hall, Richard Hanna, Edward Uotila, Petteri Dethloff, Klaus Karpechko, Alexey Björnsson, Halldor Overland, James E. Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming |
topic_facet |
114 Physical sciences AMPLIFICATION ATLANTIC CLIMATE VARIABILITY ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION Arctic EXTREME WEATHER European weather IMPACT MIDLATITUDE WEATHER NORTH-ATLANTIC North Atlantic oscillation REGIMES SEA-ICE REDUCTION STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX Scandinavian pattern subsidence heating teleconnections |
description |
We investigate factors influencing European winter (DJFM) air temperatures for the period 1979-2015 with the focus on changes during the recent period of rapid Arctic warming (1998-2015). We employ meteorological reanalyses analysed with a combination of correlation analysis, two pattern clustering techniques, and back-trajectory airmass identification. In all five selected European regions, severe cold winter events lasting at least 4 days are significantly correlated with warm Arctic episodes. Relationships during opposite conditions of warm Europe/cold Arctic are also significant. Correlations have become consistently stronger since 1998. Large-scale pattern analysis reveals that cold spells are associated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO-) and the positive phase of the Scandinavian (SCA+) pattern, which in turn are correlated with the divergence of dry-static energy transport. Warm European extremes are associated with opposite phases of these patterns and the convergence of latent heat transport. Airmass trajectory analysis is consistent with these findings, as airmasses associated with extreme cold events typically originate over continents, while warm events tend to occur with prevailing maritime airmasses. Despite Arctic-wide warming, significant cooling has occurred in northeastern Europe owing to a decrease in adiabatic subsidence heating in airmasses arriving from the southeast, along with increased occurrence of circulation patterns favouring low temperature advection. These dynamic effects dominated over the increased mean temperature of most circulation patterns. Lagged correlation analysis reveals that SCA- and NAO+ are typically preceded by cold Arctic anomalies during the previous 2-3 months, which may aid seasonal forecasting. Peer reviewed |
author2 |
INAR Physics |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Vihma, Timo Graversen, Rune G. Chen, Linling Handorf, Dörthe Skific, Natasa Francis, Jennifer A. Tyrrell, Nicholas L Hall, Richard Hanna, Edward Uotila, Petteri Dethloff, Klaus Karpechko, Alexey Björnsson, Halldor Overland, James E. |
author_facet |
Vihma, Timo Graversen, Rune G. Chen, Linling Handorf, Dörthe Skific, Natasa Francis, Jennifer A. Tyrrell, Nicholas L Hall, Richard Hanna, Edward Uotila, Petteri Dethloff, Klaus Karpechko, Alexey Björnsson, Halldor Overland, James E. |
author_sort |
Vihma, Timo |
title |
Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming |
title_short |
Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming |
title_full |
Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming |
title_fullStr |
Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming |
title_sort |
effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on european winter temperatures during the period of amplified arctic warming |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10138/314241 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_relation |
10.1002/joc.6225 Vihma , T , Graversen , R G , Chen , L , Handorf , D , Skific , N , Francis , J A , Tyrrell , N L , Hall , R , Hanna , E , Uotila , P , Dethloff , K , Karpechko , A , Björnsson , H & Overland , J E 2020 , ' Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming ' , International Journal of Climatology , vol. 40 , no. 1 , pp. 509-529 . https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6225 ORCID: /0000-0002-2939-7561/work/72782177 2250e0af-24ed-4761-8a68-991ccd0d3b10 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/314241 000480498400001 |
op_rights |
cc_by_nc cc_by_nd openAccess info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
40 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
509 |
op_container_end_page |
529 |
_version_ |
1787421523182616576 |