Improving forecasts of arctic-alpine refugia persistence with landscape-scale variables

• Published in: Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography
• Main Authors: Niskanen, Annina K. J., Heikkinen, Risto K., Mod, Heidi K., Väre, Henry, Luoto, Miska
• Other Authors: Department of Geosciences and Geography, BioGeoClimate Modelling Lab, University of Helsinki, Finnish Museum of Natural History
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley/Blackwell 2019
• Subjects: Climate change; refugia; landscape-scale factor; SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS; CLIMATE-CHANGE; GLACIAL REFUGIA; PLANT DIVERSITY; IDENTIFYING REFUGIA; HABITAT MODELS; BIODIVERSITY; DISTRIBUTIONS; EUROPE; PATTERNS; 1172 Environmental sciences; Arctic; Fennoscandia
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/307291

Refugia, the sites preserving conditions reminiscent of suitable climates, are projected to be crucial for species in a changing climate, particularly at high latitudes. However, the knowledge of current locations of high-latitude refugia and particularly their ability to retain suitable conditions under future climatic changes is limited. Occurrences of refugia have previously been mainly assessed and modelled based solely on climatic features, with insufficient attention being paid to potentially important landscape-scale factors. Here, climate-only models and full' models incorporating topo-edaphic landscape-scale variables (radiation, soil moisture and calcareousness) were developed and compared for 111 arctic-alpine plant species in Northern Fennoscandia. This was done for both current and future climates to determine cells with resilient climatic suitability harbouring refugia. Our results show that topographic and edaphic landscape-scale predictors both significantly improve models of arctic-alpine species distributions and alter projections of refugia occurrence. The predictions of species-climate models ignore landscape-scale ecological processes and may thus provide inaccurate estimates of extinction risk and forecasts of refugia where species can persist under a changing climate. Peer reviewed