Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum

• Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
• Main Authors: Tallavaara, Miikka, Luoto, Miska, Korhonen, Natalia, Järvinen, Heikki, Seppä, Heikki
• Other Authors: Department of Philosophy, History and Art Studies, Department of Geosciences and Geography, Department of Physics, INAR Physics
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: National Academy of Sciences 2019
• Subjects: hunter-gatherers; demography; niche modeling; climate change; Paleolithic; SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS; TEMPORAL FREQUENCY-DISTRIBUTIONS; LATE MOUSTERIAN PERSISTENCE; ICE-SHEET MODEL; INTERMEDIATE COMPLEXITY; PREHISTORIC DEMOGRAPHY; GENOME SEQUENCES; HUMAN-EVOLUTION; ARCTIC-CIRCLE; PART I; 1171 Geosciences; 114 Physical sciences; 1181 Ecology; evolutionary biology; Arctic; Greenland; Climate change; Ice Sheet
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/306468

The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000-19,000 y ago (27-19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30-13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, therewere almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe. Peer reviewed