Atmospheric Circulation Response to Anomalous Siberian Forcing in October 2016 and its Long‐Range Predictability
Abstract: The warm Arctic-cold continent pattern was of record strength in October 2016, providing the opportunity to test its proposed influence on large-scale atmospheric circulation. We find a record weak polar stratospheric vortex and negative North Atlantic Oscillation in November-December 2016...
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ftunivhelsihelda:oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/302088 2024-01-07T09:41:06+01:00 Atmospheric Circulation Response to Anomalous Siberian Forcing in October 2016 and its Long‐Range Predictability Tyrrell, Nicholas L. Karpechko, Alexey Yu. Uotila, Petteri Vihma, Timo INAR Physics Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) 2019-05-24T09:27:01Z 11 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10138/302088 eng eng American Geophysical Union 10.1029/2018GL081580 Tyrrell , N L , Karpechko , A Y , Uotila , P & Vihma , T 2019 , ' Atmospheric Circulation Response to Anomalous Siberian Forcing in October 2016 and its Long‐Range Predictability ' , Geophysical Research Letters , vol. 46 , no. 5 , pp. 2800-2810 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081580 ORCID: /0000-0002-2939-7561/work/57801643 85062632809 e3fbd74e-5d3a-4472-8e4c-4dc4020806e9 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/302088 000462612900052 unspecified openAccess info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess ARCTIC SEA-ICE CLIMATE LINKS MECHANISMS SNOW COVER VARIABILITY STRATOSPHERE Siberian forcing WAVE ACTIVITY FLUX WINTER autumn 2016 polar vortex seasonal forecasting stratosphere-troposphere 1172 Environmental sciences Article publishedVersion 2019 ftunivhelsihelda 2023-12-14T00:06:31Z Abstract: The warm Arctic-cold continent pattern was of record strength in October 2016, providing the opportunity to test its proposed influence on large-scale atmospheric circulation. We find a record weak polar stratospheric vortex and negative North Atlantic Oscillation in November-December 2016 and link them to increased planetary wave generation associated with cold Siberian anomalies followed by troposphere-stratosphere dynamical coupling. At the same time the warm Arctic anomalies, in particular those over the Barents-Kara Seas, do not appear to play an important role in forcing the atmospheric circulation. Long-range forecasts initialized on 1 October 2016 reproduced both the weak polar vortex and negative North Atlantic Oscillation, as well as their link with the Siberian temperatures. Our results support the stratospheric pathway for atmospheric circulation forcing associated with Siberian surface anomalies and uncover a source of skill for subseasonal forecasts from October to December. Plain Language Summary: The warm Arctic-cold continent pattern is an observed, large-scale pattern of near-surface temperatures where the Arctic is warmer than average and Siberia is colder than average. This pattern was of record strength in October 2016, providing the opportunity to test its influence on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation and the possibility of skillful long-range forecasts. It has been proposed that the warm Arctic-cold continent pattern can drive large atmospheric waves, which are able to travel from the troposphere into the stratosphere, where they weaken the strong wintertime winds that make up the stratospheric polar vortex. A weakened polar vortex can then lead to changes in the surface pressure that can affect weather patterns. We find a record weak polar stratospheric vortex in late autumn 2016 and link that to cold Siberian anomalies. At the same time the warm Arctic anomalies do not appear to play an important role in forcing the atmospheric circulation. Long-range forecasts ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Siberia HELDA – University of Helsinki Open Repository Arctic Geophysical Research Letters 46 5 2800 2810 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
HELDA – University of Helsinki Open Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivhelsihelda |
language |
English |
topic |
ARCTIC SEA-ICE CLIMATE LINKS MECHANISMS SNOW COVER VARIABILITY STRATOSPHERE Siberian forcing WAVE ACTIVITY FLUX WINTER autumn 2016 polar vortex seasonal forecasting stratosphere-troposphere 1172 Environmental sciences |
spellingShingle |
ARCTIC SEA-ICE CLIMATE LINKS MECHANISMS SNOW COVER VARIABILITY STRATOSPHERE Siberian forcing WAVE ACTIVITY FLUX WINTER autumn 2016 polar vortex seasonal forecasting stratosphere-troposphere 1172 Environmental sciences Tyrrell, Nicholas L. Karpechko, Alexey Yu. Uotila, Petteri Vihma, Timo Atmospheric Circulation Response to Anomalous Siberian Forcing in October 2016 and its Long‐Range Predictability |
topic_facet |
ARCTIC SEA-ICE CLIMATE LINKS MECHANISMS SNOW COVER VARIABILITY STRATOSPHERE Siberian forcing WAVE ACTIVITY FLUX WINTER autumn 2016 polar vortex seasonal forecasting stratosphere-troposphere 1172 Environmental sciences |
description |
Abstract: The warm Arctic-cold continent pattern was of record strength in October 2016, providing the opportunity to test its proposed influence on large-scale atmospheric circulation. We find a record weak polar stratospheric vortex and negative North Atlantic Oscillation in November-December 2016 and link them to increased planetary wave generation associated with cold Siberian anomalies followed by troposphere-stratosphere dynamical coupling. At the same time the warm Arctic anomalies, in particular those over the Barents-Kara Seas, do not appear to play an important role in forcing the atmospheric circulation. Long-range forecasts initialized on 1 October 2016 reproduced both the weak polar vortex and negative North Atlantic Oscillation, as well as their link with the Siberian temperatures. Our results support the stratospheric pathway for atmospheric circulation forcing associated with Siberian surface anomalies and uncover a source of skill for subseasonal forecasts from October to December. Plain Language Summary: The warm Arctic-cold continent pattern is an observed, large-scale pattern of near-surface temperatures where the Arctic is warmer than average and Siberia is colder than average. This pattern was of record strength in October 2016, providing the opportunity to test its influence on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation and the possibility of skillful long-range forecasts. It has been proposed that the warm Arctic-cold continent pattern can drive large atmospheric waves, which are able to travel from the troposphere into the stratosphere, where they weaken the strong wintertime winds that make up the stratospheric polar vortex. A weakened polar vortex can then lead to changes in the surface pressure that can affect weather patterns. We find a record weak polar stratospheric vortex in late autumn 2016 and link that to cold Siberian anomalies. At the same time the warm Arctic anomalies do not appear to play an important role in forcing the atmospheric circulation. Long-range forecasts ... |
author2 |
INAR Physics Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tyrrell, Nicholas L. Karpechko, Alexey Yu. Uotila, Petteri Vihma, Timo |
author_facet |
Tyrrell, Nicholas L. Karpechko, Alexey Yu. Uotila, Petteri Vihma, Timo |
author_sort |
Tyrrell, Nicholas L. |
title |
Atmospheric Circulation Response to Anomalous Siberian Forcing in October 2016 and its Long‐Range Predictability |
title_short |
Atmospheric Circulation Response to Anomalous Siberian Forcing in October 2016 and its Long‐Range Predictability |
title_full |
Atmospheric Circulation Response to Anomalous Siberian Forcing in October 2016 and its Long‐Range Predictability |
title_fullStr |
Atmospheric Circulation Response to Anomalous Siberian Forcing in October 2016 and its Long‐Range Predictability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Atmospheric Circulation Response to Anomalous Siberian Forcing in October 2016 and its Long‐Range Predictability |
title_sort |
atmospheric circulation response to anomalous siberian forcing in october 2016 and its long‐range predictability |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10138/302088 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Siberia |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Siberia |
op_relation |
10.1029/2018GL081580 Tyrrell , N L , Karpechko , A Y , Uotila , P & Vihma , T 2019 , ' Atmospheric Circulation Response to Anomalous Siberian Forcing in October 2016 and its Long‐Range Predictability ' , Geophysical Research Letters , vol. 46 , no. 5 , pp. 2800-2810 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081580 ORCID: /0000-0002-2939-7561/work/57801643 85062632809 e3fbd74e-5d3a-4472-8e4c-4dc4020806e9 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/302088 000462612900052 |
op_rights |
unspecified openAccess info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
46 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
2800 |
op_container_end_page |
2810 |
_version_ |
1787421906872303616 |