Predicting ice-induced load amplitudes on ship bow conditional on ice thickness and ship speed in the Baltic Sea
Transportation in ice prone waters is a timely topic due to the pursuit for arctic natural resources and sea routes. One important safety aspect in designing ships that enter ice prone waters is to determine the ice-induced loads on ships. However, ice is a particularly inconsistent material; theref...
Published in: | Cold Regions Science and Technology |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Elsevier Scientific Publ. Co
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10138/297765 |
id |
ftunivhelsihelda:oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/297765 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivhelsihelda:oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/297765 2024-01-07T09:41:42+01:00 Predicting ice-induced load amplitudes on ship bow conditional on ice thickness and ship speed in the Baltic Sea Kotilainen, Mikko Vanhatalo, Jarno Petteri Suominen, Mikko Kujala, Pentti Department of Mathematics and Statistics Biosciences Biostatistics Helsinki Environmental and Ecological Statistics Group 2019-01-23T22:31:30Z 11 application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document http://hdl.handle.net/10138/297765 eng eng Elsevier Scientific Publ. Co 10.1016/j.coldregions.2016.12.006 Academy of Finland Valtion perusrahoitus/hankkeet Unknown funder Kotilainen , M , Vanhatalo , J P , Suominen , M & Kujala , P 2017 , ' Predicting ice-induced load amplitudes on ship bow conditional on ice thickness and ship speed in the Baltic Sea ' , Cold Regions Science and Technology , vol. 135 , pp. 116–126 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2016.12.006 85009371867 d4bb3f01-46a9-455e-8025-1006aab3d1a0 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/297765 000393724200012 cc_by_nc_nd openAccess info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess 112 Statistics and probability 1172 Environmental sciences Article acceptedVersion 2019 ftunivhelsihelda 2023-12-14T00:13:09Z Transportation in ice prone waters is a timely topic due to the pursuit for arctic natural resources and sea routes. One important safety aspect in designing ships that enter ice prone waters is to determine the ice-induced loads on ships. However, ice is a particularly inconsistent material; therefore it is difficult to predict the occurring loads when the ship hull breaks the ice. We propose a novel probabilistic, Bayesian, method for modeling and predicting ice load distributions in different ice and operational conditions. We assume the ice loads to be generated from a random process whose parameters change as a function of ice thickness and ship speed. We test four alternative hierarchical Gaussian Process models. The best model shows good performance in predictive validation tests. According to the results the probability of high ice loads increases with increasing ice thickness and increasing speed. The model can be used to predict continuously ice loads in different ice thickness and speed conditions and, with further development, has potential to be utilized in determining the safe way to operate ships in different conditions. Peer reviewed Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic HELDA – University of Helsinki Open Repository Arctic Cold Regions Science and Technology 135 116 126 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
HELDA – University of Helsinki Open Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivhelsihelda |
language |
English |
topic |
112 Statistics and probability 1172 Environmental sciences |
spellingShingle |
112 Statistics and probability 1172 Environmental sciences Kotilainen, Mikko Vanhatalo, Jarno Petteri Suominen, Mikko Kujala, Pentti Predicting ice-induced load amplitudes on ship bow conditional on ice thickness and ship speed in the Baltic Sea |
topic_facet |
112 Statistics and probability 1172 Environmental sciences |
description |
Transportation in ice prone waters is a timely topic due to the pursuit for arctic natural resources and sea routes. One important safety aspect in designing ships that enter ice prone waters is to determine the ice-induced loads on ships. However, ice is a particularly inconsistent material; therefore it is difficult to predict the occurring loads when the ship hull breaks the ice. We propose a novel probabilistic, Bayesian, method for modeling and predicting ice load distributions in different ice and operational conditions. We assume the ice loads to be generated from a random process whose parameters change as a function of ice thickness and ship speed. We test four alternative hierarchical Gaussian Process models. The best model shows good performance in predictive validation tests. According to the results the probability of high ice loads increases with increasing ice thickness and increasing speed. The model can be used to predict continuously ice loads in different ice thickness and speed conditions and, with further development, has potential to be utilized in determining the safe way to operate ships in different conditions. Peer reviewed |
author2 |
Department of Mathematics and Statistics Biosciences Biostatistics Helsinki Environmental and Ecological Statistics Group |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kotilainen, Mikko Vanhatalo, Jarno Petteri Suominen, Mikko Kujala, Pentti |
author_facet |
Kotilainen, Mikko Vanhatalo, Jarno Petteri Suominen, Mikko Kujala, Pentti |
author_sort |
Kotilainen, Mikko |
title |
Predicting ice-induced load amplitudes on ship bow conditional on ice thickness and ship speed in the Baltic Sea |
title_short |
Predicting ice-induced load amplitudes on ship bow conditional on ice thickness and ship speed in the Baltic Sea |
title_full |
Predicting ice-induced load amplitudes on ship bow conditional on ice thickness and ship speed in the Baltic Sea |
title_fullStr |
Predicting ice-induced load amplitudes on ship bow conditional on ice thickness and ship speed in the Baltic Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting ice-induced load amplitudes on ship bow conditional on ice thickness and ship speed in the Baltic Sea |
title_sort |
predicting ice-induced load amplitudes on ship bow conditional on ice thickness and ship speed in the baltic sea |
publisher |
Elsevier Scientific Publ. Co |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10138/297765 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_relation |
10.1016/j.coldregions.2016.12.006 Academy of Finland Valtion perusrahoitus/hankkeet Unknown funder Kotilainen , M , Vanhatalo , J P , Suominen , M & Kujala , P 2017 , ' Predicting ice-induced load amplitudes on ship bow conditional on ice thickness and ship speed in the Baltic Sea ' , Cold Regions Science and Technology , vol. 135 , pp. 116–126 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2016.12.006 85009371867 d4bb3f01-46a9-455e-8025-1006aab3d1a0 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/297765 000393724200012 |
op_rights |
cc_by_nc_nd openAccess info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
container_title |
Cold Regions Science and Technology |
container_volume |
135 |
container_start_page |
116 |
op_container_end_page |
126 |
_version_ |
1787422506417651712 |