Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century

• Published in: Nature Communications
• Main Authors: Hjort, Jan, Karjalainen, Olli, Aalto, Juha Antero, Westermann, Sebastian, Romanovsky, Vladimir, Nelson, Frederick, Etzelmüller, Bernd, Luoto, Miska
• Other Authors: BioGeoClimate Modelling Lab, Department of Geosciences and Geography, Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Nature Publishing Group 2018
• Subjects: 1172 Environmental sciences; CLIMATE-CHANGE; CHANGING CLIMATE; THERMAL REGIME; THAW; OIL; MAP; DEGRADATION; LANDSCAPES; HAZARD; Arctic; Climate change; permafrost
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/275481

Degradation of near-surface permafrost can pose a serious threat to the utilization of natural resources, and to the sustainable development of Arctic communities. Here we identify at unprecedentedly high spatial resolution infrastructure hazard areas in the Northern Hemisphere's permafrost regions under projected climatic changes and quantify fundamental engineering structures at risk by 2050. We show that nearly four million people and 70% of current infrastructure in the permafrost domain are in areas with high potential for thaw of near-surface permafrost. Our results demonstrate that one-third of pan-Arctic infrastructure and 45% of the hydrocarbon extraction fields in the Russian Arctic are in regions where thaw-related ground instability can cause severe damage to the built environment. Alarmingly, these figures are not reduced substantially even if the climate change targets of the Paris Agreement are reached. Peer reviewed