Estimating the acute impacts of Arctic marine oil spills using expert elicitation
Increasing maritime traffic in the Arctic has heightened the oil spill-related risks in this highly sensitive environment. To quantitatively assess these risks, we need knowledge about both the vulnerability and sensitivity of the key Arctic functional groups that may be affected by spilled oil. How...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10138/235409 |
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ftunivhelsihelda:oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/235409 2024-01-07T09:40:38+01:00 Estimating the acute impacts of Arctic marine oil spills using expert elicitation Nevalainen, Maisa Helle, Inari Vanhatalo, Jarno Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS) Fisheries and Environmental Management Group Department of Mathematics and Statistics Research Centre for Ecological Change Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme Environmental and Ecological Statistics Group 2018-05-29T13:36:01Z 11 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10138/235409 eng eng Elsevier Scientific Publ. Co 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.04.076 Valtion perusrahoitus/hankkeet Unknown funder SUOMEN AKATEMIA Nevalainen , M , Helle , I & Vanhatalo , J 2018 , ' Estimating the acute impacts of Arctic marine oil spills using expert elicitation ' , Marine Pollution Bulletin , vol. 131 , pp. 782-792 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.04.076 ORCID: /0000-0001-9006-0899/work/54146476 85047084869 5dbb8b2c-88cc-4e16-893a-cc6eee59c765 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/235409 000437060300085 cc_by openAccess info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess 111 Mathematics 1181 Ecology evolutionary biology Article publishedVersion 2018 ftunivhelsihelda 2023-12-14T00:15:12Z Increasing maritime traffic in the Arctic has heightened the oil spill-related risks in this highly sensitive environment. To quantitatively assess these risks, we need knowledge about both the vulnerability and sensitivity of the key Arctic functional groups that may be affected by spilled oil. However, in the Arctic these data are typically scarce or lacking altogether. To compensate for this limited data availability, we propose the use of a probabilistic expert elicitation methodology, which we apply to seals, anatids, and seabirds. Our results suggest that the impacts of oil vary between functional groups, seasons, and oil types. Overall, the impacts are least for seals and greatest for anatids. Offspring seem to be more sensitive than adults, the impact is greatest in spring, and medium and heavy oils are the most harmful oil types. The elicitation process worked well, yet finding enough skilled and motivated experts proved to be difficult. Peer reviewed Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic HELDA – University of Helsinki Open Repository Arctic Marine Pollution Bulletin 131 782 792 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
HELDA – University of Helsinki Open Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivhelsihelda |
language |
English |
topic |
111 Mathematics 1181 Ecology evolutionary biology |
spellingShingle |
111 Mathematics 1181 Ecology evolutionary biology Nevalainen, Maisa Helle, Inari Vanhatalo, Jarno Estimating the acute impacts of Arctic marine oil spills using expert elicitation |
topic_facet |
111 Mathematics 1181 Ecology evolutionary biology |
description |
Increasing maritime traffic in the Arctic has heightened the oil spill-related risks in this highly sensitive environment. To quantitatively assess these risks, we need knowledge about both the vulnerability and sensitivity of the key Arctic functional groups that may be affected by spilled oil. However, in the Arctic these data are typically scarce or lacking altogether. To compensate for this limited data availability, we propose the use of a probabilistic expert elicitation methodology, which we apply to seals, anatids, and seabirds. Our results suggest that the impacts of oil vary between functional groups, seasons, and oil types. Overall, the impacts are least for seals and greatest for anatids. Offspring seem to be more sensitive than adults, the impact is greatest in spring, and medium and heavy oils are the most harmful oil types. The elicitation process worked well, yet finding enough skilled and motivated experts proved to be difficult. Peer reviewed |
author2 |
Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS) Fisheries and Environmental Management Group Department of Mathematics and Statistics Research Centre for Ecological Change Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme Environmental and Ecological Statistics Group |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nevalainen, Maisa Helle, Inari Vanhatalo, Jarno |
author_facet |
Nevalainen, Maisa Helle, Inari Vanhatalo, Jarno |
author_sort |
Nevalainen, Maisa |
title |
Estimating the acute impacts of Arctic marine oil spills using expert elicitation |
title_short |
Estimating the acute impacts of Arctic marine oil spills using expert elicitation |
title_full |
Estimating the acute impacts of Arctic marine oil spills using expert elicitation |
title_fullStr |
Estimating the acute impacts of Arctic marine oil spills using expert elicitation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating the acute impacts of Arctic marine oil spills using expert elicitation |
title_sort |
estimating the acute impacts of arctic marine oil spills using expert elicitation |
publisher |
Elsevier Scientific Publ. Co |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10138/235409 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic |
op_relation |
10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.04.076 Valtion perusrahoitus/hankkeet Unknown funder SUOMEN AKATEMIA Nevalainen , M , Helle , I & Vanhatalo , J 2018 , ' Estimating the acute impacts of Arctic marine oil spills using expert elicitation ' , Marine Pollution Bulletin , vol. 131 , pp. 782-792 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.04.076 ORCID: /0000-0001-9006-0899/work/54146476 85047084869 5dbb8b2c-88cc-4e16-893a-cc6eee59c765 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/235409 000437060300085 |
op_rights |
cc_by openAccess info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
container_title |
Marine Pollution Bulletin |
container_volume |
131 |
container_start_page |
782 |
op_container_end_page |
792 |
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1787421474504572928 |