Estimating the acute impacts of Arctic marine oil spills using expert elicitation

• Published in: Marine Pollution Bulletin
• Main Authors: Nevalainen, Maisa, Helle, Inari, Vanhatalo, Jarno
• Other Authors: Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme, Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS), Fisheries and Environmental Management Group, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Research Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Environmental and Ecological Statistics Group
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Scientific Publ. Co 2018
• Subjects: 111 Mathematics; 1181 Ecology; evolutionary biology; Arctic
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/235409

Increasing maritime traffic in the Arctic has heightened the oil spill-related risks in this highly sensitive environment. To quantitatively assess these risks, we need knowledge about both the vulnerability and sensitivity of the key Arctic functional groups that may be affected by spilled oil. However, in the Arctic these data are typically scarce or lacking altogether. To compensate for this limited data availability, we propose the use of a probabilistic expert elicitation methodology, which we apply to seals, anatids, and seabirds. Our results suggest that the impacts of oil vary between functional groups, seasons, and oil types. Overall, the impacts are least for seals and greatest for anatids. Offspring seem to be more sensitive than adults, the impact is greatest in spring, and medium and heavy oils are the most harmful oil types. The elicitation process worked well, yet finding enough skilled and motivated experts proved to be difficult. Peer reviewed