The spatial modelling of high-latitude plant richness and refugia in a changing environment
Arctic-alpine regions are facing notable climatic changes. Improved understanding is needed of how these changes cascade into species distributions and what they might mean for the Arctic-alpine realm. These high-latitudes are expected to be susceptible to change. This vulnerability highlights the i...
Main Author: | |
---|---|
Other Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Helsingin yliopisto
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10138/232601 |
id |
ftunivhelsihelda:oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/232601 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivhelsihelda:oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/232601 2023-08-20T04:03:59+02:00 The spatial modelling of high-latitude plant richness and refugia in a changing environment Korkeiden leveysasteiden kasvilajien runsauden ja refugioiden spatiaalinen mallinnus muuttuvassa ympäristössä Niskanen, Annina Hickler, Thomas University of Helsinki, Faculty of Science, Department of Geosciences and Geography Helsingin yliopisto, matemaattis-luonnontieteellinen tiedekunta, geotieteiden ja maantieteen laitos Helsingfors universitet, matematisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, institutionen för geovetenskaper och geografi Luoto, Miska Heikkinen, Risto 2018-02-20T07:11:24Z application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10138/232601 eng eng Helsingin yliopisto Helsingfors universitet University of Helsinki URN:ISBN:978-951-51-2947-5 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/232601 URN:ISBN:978-951-51-2948-2 Julkaisu on tekijänoikeussäännösten alainen. Teosta voi lukea ja tulostaa henkilökohtaista käyttöä varten. Käyttö kaupallisiin tarkoituksiin on kielletty. This publication is copyrighted. You may download, display and print it for Your own personal use. Commercial use is prohibited. Publikationen är skyddad av upphovsrätten. Den får läsas och skrivas ut för personligt bruk. Användning i kommersiellt syfte är förbjuden. Text Doctoral dissertation (article-based) Artikkeliväitöskirja Artikelavhandling doctoralThesis 2018 ftunivhelsihelda 2023-07-28T06:02:15Z Arctic-alpine regions are facing notable climatic changes. Improved understanding is needed of how these changes cascade into species distributions and what they might mean for the Arctic-alpine realm. These high-latitudes are expected to be susceptible to change. This vulnerability highlights the importance of identifying drivers of Arctic-alpine species and the landscape features that support their persistence. This thesis examines the determinants of present-day refugia; investigates drivers of plant richness and how projected hotspots coincide with conservation areas; forecasts refugia for species persistence and their connection to topo-geological features; and predicts forthcoming changes in species distributions and sensitivity, and whether these are affected by biogeographic history. Multiple statistical modelling approaches were combined with extensive data on species occurrences and environmental drivers. Models were built for refugia, vascular plant species, and various aspects of species richness. Changes in responses were projected across climate scenarios within Fennoscandia. The pronounced climate-dependency of high-latitude species and refugia suggests climate change to have substantial impact on the region’s flora. However, incorporation of topo-geological drivers improved models and forecasts of refugia. Refugia may be especially important for species persistence under severe climate change, particularly for rare or threatened species. Diversity hotspots exhibited low congruence due to variance in key drivers: total species richness prospers in warmer conditions; hotspots of range-restricted species occur near the cooler Northern Scandes. Protected areas in northern Fennoscandia offer limited coverage for these culminations of biodiversity. The climate change sensitivity of high-latitude flora depends not only on predicted warming, but on regional geography and species biogeographic history. Contrary to global estimates these findings do not predict poleward range center shifts. Northern Arctic ... Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis Arctic Climate change Fennoscandia Helsingfors Universitet: HELDA – Helsingin yliopiston digitaalinen arkisto Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Helsingfors Universitet: HELDA – Helsingin yliopiston digitaalinen arkisto |
op_collection_id |
ftunivhelsihelda |
language |
English |
description |
Arctic-alpine regions are facing notable climatic changes. Improved understanding is needed of how these changes cascade into species distributions and what they might mean for the Arctic-alpine realm. These high-latitudes are expected to be susceptible to change. This vulnerability highlights the importance of identifying drivers of Arctic-alpine species and the landscape features that support their persistence. This thesis examines the determinants of present-day refugia; investigates drivers of plant richness and how projected hotspots coincide with conservation areas; forecasts refugia for species persistence and their connection to topo-geological features; and predicts forthcoming changes in species distributions and sensitivity, and whether these are affected by biogeographic history. Multiple statistical modelling approaches were combined with extensive data on species occurrences and environmental drivers. Models were built for refugia, vascular plant species, and various aspects of species richness. Changes in responses were projected across climate scenarios within Fennoscandia. The pronounced climate-dependency of high-latitude species and refugia suggests climate change to have substantial impact on the region’s flora. However, incorporation of topo-geological drivers improved models and forecasts of refugia. Refugia may be especially important for species persistence under severe climate change, particularly for rare or threatened species. Diversity hotspots exhibited low congruence due to variance in key drivers: total species richness prospers in warmer conditions; hotspots of range-restricted species occur near the cooler Northern Scandes. Protected areas in northern Fennoscandia offer limited coverage for these culminations of biodiversity. The climate change sensitivity of high-latitude flora depends not only on predicted warming, but on regional geography and species biogeographic history. Contrary to global estimates these findings do not predict poleward range center shifts. Northern Arctic ... |
author2 |
Hickler, Thomas University of Helsinki, Faculty of Science, Department of Geosciences and Geography Helsingin yliopisto, matemaattis-luonnontieteellinen tiedekunta, geotieteiden ja maantieteen laitos Helsingfors universitet, matematisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, institutionen för geovetenskaper och geografi Luoto, Miska Heikkinen, Risto |
format |
Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
author |
Niskanen, Annina |
spellingShingle |
Niskanen, Annina The spatial modelling of high-latitude plant richness and refugia in a changing environment |
author_facet |
Niskanen, Annina |
author_sort |
Niskanen, Annina |
title |
The spatial modelling of high-latitude plant richness and refugia in a changing environment |
title_short |
The spatial modelling of high-latitude plant richness and refugia in a changing environment |
title_full |
The spatial modelling of high-latitude plant richness and refugia in a changing environment |
title_fullStr |
The spatial modelling of high-latitude plant richness and refugia in a changing environment |
title_full_unstemmed |
The spatial modelling of high-latitude plant richness and refugia in a changing environment |
title_sort |
spatial modelling of high-latitude plant richness and refugia in a changing environment |
publisher |
Helsingin yliopisto |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10138/232601 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Fennoscandia |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Fennoscandia |
op_relation |
URN:ISBN:978-951-51-2947-5 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/232601 URN:ISBN:978-951-51-2948-2 |
op_rights |
Julkaisu on tekijänoikeussäännösten alainen. Teosta voi lukea ja tulostaa henkilökohtaista käyttöä varten. Käyttö kaupallisiin tarkoituksiin on kielletty. This publication is copyrighted. You may download, display and print it for Your own personal use. Commercial use is prohibited. Publikationen är skyddad av upphovsrätten. Den får läsas och skrivas ut för personligt bruk. Användning i kommersiellt syfte är förbjuden. |
_version_ |
1774714434324791296 |