Impact on short-lived climate forcers increases projected warming due to deforestation

• Main Authors: Scott, C. E., Monks, S. A., Spracklen, D. V., Arnold, S. R., Forster, P. M., Rap, A., Äijälä, M., Artaxo, P., Carslaw, K. S., Chipperfield, M. P., Ehn, M., Gilardoni, S., Heikkinen, L., Kulmala, M., Petäjä, T., Reddington, C. L. S., Rizzo, L. V., Swietlicki, E., Vignati, E., Wilson, C.
• Other Authors: Department of Physics
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Nature Publishing Group 2018
• Subjects: SECONDARY ORGANIC AEROSOL; CLOUD CONDENSATION NUCLEI; LAND-COVER CHANGE; GLOBAL CLIMATE; TROPOSPHERIC OZONE; ISOPRENE OXIDATION; SCALE DEFORESTATION; HISTORICAL CHANGES; MODEL SIMULATIONS; GREENHOUSE GASES; 114 Physical sciences; Arctic; The Cryosphere
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/231558

The climate impact of deforestation depends on the relative strength of several biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. In addition to affecting the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2) and moisture with the atmosphere and surface albedo, vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) that alter the formation of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which include aerosol, ozone and methane. Here we show that a scenario of complete global deforestation results in a net positive radiative forcing (RF; 0.12Wm-2) from SLCFs, with the negative RF from decreases in ozone and methane concentrations partially offsetting the positive aerosol RF. Combining RFs due to CO2, surface albedo and SLCFs suggests that global deforestation could cause 0.8 K warming after 100 years, with SLCFs contributing 8% of the effect. However, deforestation as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario leads to zero net RF from SLCF, primarily due to nonlinearities in the aerosol indirect effect. Peer reviewed