Projected climate change impact on fire risk and heavy snow loads in the Finnish forests
The aim of this work was to study the climate change impact on two specific abiotic risks affecting forests in Finland: fires and heavy snow loads. Approximately 1000 forest fires occur annually in Finland, but thanks to effective fire suppression, the average size of fires is only about 0.5 ha. Occ...
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ftunivhelsihelda:oai:helda.helsinki.fi:10138/192016 2023-08-20T04:07:41+02:00 Projected climate change impact on fire risk and heavy snow loads in the Finnish forests Lehtonen, Ilari Gardiner, Barry University of Helsinki, Faculty of Science, Department of Physics Finnish Meteorological Institute Helsingin yliopisto, matemaattis-luonnontieteellinen tiedekunta, fysiikan laitos Helsingfors universitet, matematisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, institutionen för fysik Venäläinen, Ari Järvinen, Heikki 2017-06-16T07:22:09Z application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10138/192016 eng eng Helsingin yliopisto Helsingfors universitet University of Helsinki URN:ISBN:978-952-336-022-8 Helsinki: Erweko, 2017, Finnish Meteorological Institute Contributions. 0782-6117 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/192016 URN:ISBN:978-952-336-023-5 Julkaisu on tekijänoikeussäännösten alainen. Teosta voi lukea ja tulostaa henkilökohtaista käyttöä varten. Käyttö kaupallisiin tarkoituksiin on kielletty. This publication is copyrighted. You may download, display and print it for Your own personal use. Commercial use is prohibited. Publikationen är skyddad av upphovsrätten. Den får läsas och skrivas ut för personligt bruk. Användning i kommersiellt syfte är förbjuden. Text Doctoral dissertation (article-based) Artikkeliväitöskirja Artikelavhandling doctoralThesis 2017 ftunivhelsihelda 2023-07-28T06:26:42Z The aim of this work was to study the climate change impact on two specific abiotic risks affecting forests in Finland: fires and heavy snow loads. Approximately 1000 forest fires occur annually in Finland, but thanks to effective fire suppression, the average size of fires is only about 0.5 ha. Occasionally, heavy snow loading causes forest damage, which reduces stand quality in boreal forests experiencing cold winters. In Finnish forests, snow damage occurs most commonly in the eastern and northern parts of the country. The basic tools used in this work to evaluate the climate change impact were climate models. In addition, observational weather data and fire statistics were used. In evaluating the forest fire risk, the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) system was used. Snow load amounts were estimated mainly by applying a snow load model developed at the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI). The results indicate that forest fire risk will most likely increase in the future due to increasing temperature and enhanced evaporation. However, there is large uncertainty regarding the rate of change, which originates from the differences between climate model responses to the same radiative forcing. Moreover, an increase in forest fire risk will at the same time increase the risk of conflagrations. Crown snow loads were projected to become heavier in northern Finland and in the regions of Kainuu and North Karelia next to the Russian border. In southern and western Finland the risk of snow damage is expected to decrease. The largest decrease in the risk is projected to occur in coastal areas. In the areas expected to experience increased risk of snow damage, conditions favouring both heavy wet snow loading and rime accretion were predicted to become more common. The results of this work can be utilized when considering climatically-driven risks in forest management. Tämän työn tavoitteena oli tutkia ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutusta kahteen metsiä uhkaavaan abioottiseen riskiin Suomen oloissa: metsäpaloihin ja ... Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis karelia* Northern Finland Helsingfors Universitet: HELDA – Helsingin yliopiston digitaalinen arkisto Kainuu ENVELOPE(28.000,28.000,66.000,66.000) Rime ENVELOPE(6.483,6.483,62.567,62.567) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Helsingfors Universitet: HELDA – Helsingin yliopiston digitaalinen arkisto |
op_collection_id |
ftunivhelsihelda |
language |
English |
description |
The aim of this work was to study the climate change impact on two specific abiotic risks affecting forests in Finland: fires and heavy snow loads. Approximately 1000 forest fires occur annually in Finland, but thanks to effective fire suppression, the average size of fires is only about 0.5 ha. Occasionally, heavy snow loading causes forest damage, which reduces stand quality in boreal forests experiencing cold winters. In Finnish forests, snow damage occurs most commonly in the eastern and northern parts of the country. The basic tools used in this work to evaluate the climate change impact were climate models. In addition, observational weather data and fire statistics were used. In evaluating the forest fire risk, the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) system was used. Snow load amounts were estimated mainly by applying a snow load model developed at the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI). The results indicate that forest fire risk will most likely increase in the future due to increasing temperature and enhanced evaporation. However, there is large uncertainty regarding the rate of change, which originates from the differences between climate model responses to the same radiative forcing. Moreover, an increase in forest fire risk will at the same time increase the risk of conflagrations. Crown snow loads were projected to become heavier in northern Finland and in the regions of Kainuu and North Karelia next to the Russian border. In southern and western Finland the risk of snow damage is expected to decrease. The largest decrease in the risk is projected to occur in coastal areas. In the areas expected to experience increased risk of snow damage, conditions favouring both heavy wet snow loading and rime accretion were predicted to become more common. The results of this work can be utilized when considering climatically-driven risks in forest management. Tämän työn tavoitteena oli tutkia ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutusta kahteen metsiä uhkaavaan abioottiseen riskiin Suomen oloissa: metsäpaloihin ja ... |
author2 |
Gardiner, Barry University of Helsinki, Faculty of Science, Department of Physics Finnish Meteorological Institute Helsingin yliopisto, matemaattis-luonnontieteellinen tiedekunta, fysiikan laitos Helsingfors universitet, matematisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, institutionen för fysik Venäläinen, Ari Järvinen, Heikki |
format |
Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
author |
Lehtonen, Ilari |
spellingShingle |
Lehtonen, Ilari Projected climate change impact on fire risk and heavy snow loads in the Finnish forests |
author_facet |
Lehtonen, Ilari |
author_sort |
Lehtonen, Ilari |
title |
Projected climate change impact on fire risk and heavy snow loads in the Finnish forests |
title_short |
Projected climate change impact on fire risk and heavy snow loads in the Finnish forests |
title_full |
Projected climate change impact on fire risk and heavy snow loads in the Finnish forests |
title_fullStr |
Projected climate change impact on fire risk and heavy snow loads in the Finnish forests |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected climate change impact on fire risk and heavy snow loads in the Finnish forests |
title_sort |
projected climate change impact on fire risk and heavy snow loads in the finnish forests |
publisher |
Helsingin yliopisto |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10138/192016 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(28.000,28.000,66.000,66.000) ENVELOPE(6.483,6.483,62.567,62.567) |
geographic |
Kainuu Rime |
geographic_facet |
Kainuu Rime |
genre |
karelia* Northern Finland |
genre_facet |
karelia* Northern Finland |
op_relation |
URN:ISBN:978-952-336-022-8 Helsinki: Erweko, 2017, Finnish Meteorological Institute Contributions. 0782-6117 http://hdl.handle.net/10138/192016 URN:ISBN:978-952-336-023-5 |
op_rights |
Julkaisu on tekijänoikeussäännösten alainen. Teosta voi lukea ja tulostaa henkilökohtaista käyttöä varten. Käyttö kaupallisiin tarkoituksiin on kielletty. This publication is copyrighted. You may download, display and print it for Your own personal use. Commercial use is prohibited. Publikationen är skyddad av upphovsrätten. Den får läsas och skrivas ut för personligt bruk. Användning i kommersiellt syfte är förbjuden. |
_version_ |
1774719503723134976 |