Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome

• Published in: Nature Communications
• Main Authors: Criado, Mariana Garcia, Myers-Smith, Isla H., Bjorkman, Anne D., Normand, Signe, Blach-Overgaard, Anne, Thomas, Haydn J. D., Eskelinen, Anu, Happonen, Konsta, Alatalo, Juha M., Anadon-Rosell, Alba, Aubin, Isabelle, te Beest, Mariska, Betway-May, Katlyn R., Blok, Daan, Buras, Allan, Cerabolini, Bruno E. L., Christie, Katherine, Cornelissen, J. Hans C., Forbes, Bruce C., Frei, Esther R., Grogan, Paul, Hermanutz, Luise, Hollister, Robert D., Hudson, James, Iturrate-Garcia, Maitane, Kaarlejaervi, Elina, Kleyer, Michael, Lamarque, Laurent J., Lembrechts, Jonas J., Levesque, Esther, Luoto, Miska, Macek, Petr, May, Jeremy L., Prevey, Janet S., Schaepman-Strub, Gabriela, Sheremetiev, Serge N., Collier, Laura Siegwart, SOUDZILOVSKAIA, Nadia, Trant, Andrew, Venn, Susanna E., Virkkala, Anna-Maria
• Other Authors: Blach-Overgaard, Anne/0000-0002-0200-1547; Cerabolini, Bruno Enrico, Leone/0000-0002-3793-0733; Schaepman-Strub, Gabriela/0000-0002-4069-1884; Anadon-Rosell, Alba/0000-0002-9447-7795;, Virkkala, Anna-Maria/0000-0003-4877-2918; Forbes, Bruce/0000-0002-4593-5083; Alatalo, Juha/0000-0001-5084-850X; Eskelinen, Anu/0000-0003-1707-5263; Luoto, Miska/0000-0001-6203-5143; Garcia, Criado, Mariana/0000-0001-7480-6144; Myers-Smith, Isla/0000-0002-8417-6112
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: NATURE PORTFOLIO 2023
• Subjects: Seeds; Climate Change; Phenotype; Ecosystem; Tundra
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/41642; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39573-4

Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces. Functional trait data could guide predictions of species responses to environmental change. Here, the authors show that winner and loser shrub species in the warming tundra biome overlap in trait space and may therefore be difficult to predict based on commonly measured traits. We thank Alberto S. Ballesteros for fixing picture issues and designing the shrub, leaf, and seed icons. We thank all tundra data collectors and supporting organisations, including members of the International Tundra Experiment Network (ITEX) for their efforts in data collection and for making their data accessible. We are grateful to all trait data collectors who made their data available through the TRY and TTT databases. We thank local and Indigenous peoples for the opportunity to work with data collected on their lands. M.G.C. was supported by the Principal’s Career Development PhD Scholarship from ...