Modelling the future climate and outdoor thermal comfort over Eurasia
Unprecedented widespread and rapid changes in the climate system have been observed over every region across the globe. Moreover, the increase in global near surface temperature is projected to continue until at least 2050, which will lead towards more extreme events. This ongoing global warming wil...
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Ghent University. Faculty of Sciences
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ftunivgent:oai:archive.ugent.be:8755381 2023-06-11T04:09:52+02:00 Modelling the future climate and outdoor thermal comfort over Eurasia Top, Sara Caluwaerts, Steven De Maeyer, Philippe Termonia, Piet 2022 application/pdf https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/8755381 http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-8755381 https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/8755381/file/8755387 eng eng Ghent University. Faculty of Sciences https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/8755381 http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-8755381 https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/8755381/file/8755387 Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0) info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess Physics and Astronomy Earth and Environmental Sciences regional climate modelling outdoor thermal comfort CORDEX Central Asia urban measurement network urban climate dissertation info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2022 ftunivgent 2023-05-10T22:50:13Z Unprecedented widespread and rapid changes in the climate system have been observed over every region across the globe. Moreover, the increase in global near surface temperature is projected to continue until at least 2050, which will lead towards more extreme events. This ongoing global warming will cause more frequent exceedance of human health heat thresholds, leading to reduced well-being, labour productivity and an excess in mortality. Regional climate models (RCMs) are used to downscale the information of global models over particular regions of interest to study the effect of global warming at higher spatial and temporal resolutions. The Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) creates a framework for scientists to perform such regional climate downscaling in a systematic way. High-resolution climate information over Asia is still scarce and this region deserves attention since it comprises a large range of climatic zones and affects some highly populated regions. To fill this gap, two RCMs, ALARO and REMO, were run over the Central Asia CORDEX (CAS-CORDEX) domain, covering most of the Eurasian continent. The resulting climate data was evaluated to investigate whether these RCMs produce reliable climate information. In general both RCMs reproduced realistic spatial patterns for temperature, but they underestimated the diurnal temperature range. There were also significant biases found in multiple subregions during several seasons, e.g., a warm bias in the north during winter and a wet bias over the Asian monsoon region. The projections of four global-regional climate model combinations of a small multi-model ensemble showed for the 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C global warming levels geographically unequal warming and precipitation trends over Eurasia, with a faster warming rate and increasing precipitation in northern Eurasia due to the Arctic amplification. Further, a significant decrease in precipitation was found over southeastern China for global warming beyond 2 °C. Outdoor thermal ... Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis Arctic Global warming Human health Ghent University Academic Bibliography Arctic Remo ENVELOPE(-128.718,-128.718,54.496,54.496) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Ghent University Academic Bibliography |
op_collection_id |
ftunivgent |
language |
English |
topic |
Physics and Astronomy Earth and Environmental Sciences regional climate modelling outdoor thermal comfort CORDEX Central Asia urban measurement network urban climate |
spellingShingle |
Physics and Astronomy Earth and Environmental Sciences regional climate modelling outdoor thermal comfort CORDEX Central Asia urban measurement network urban climate Top, Sara Modelling the future climate and outdoor thermal comfort over Eurasia |
topic_facet |
Physics and Astronomy Earth and Environmental Sciences regional climate modelling outdoor thermal comfort CORDEX Central Asia urban measurement network urban climate |
description |
Unprecedented widespread and rapid changes in the climate system have been observed over every region across the globe. Moreover, the increase in global near surface temperature is projected to continue until at least 2050, which will lead towards more extreme events. This ongoing global warming will cause more frequent exceedance of human health heat thresholds, leading to reduced well-being, labour productivity and an excess in mortality. Regional climate models (RCMs) are used to downscale the information of global models over particular regions of interest to study the effect of global warming at higher spatial and temporal resolutions. The Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) creates a framework for scientists to perform such regional climate downscaling in a systematic way. High-resolution climate information over Asia is still scarce and this region deserves attention since it comprises a large range of climatic zones and affects some highly populated regions. To fill this gap, two RCMs, ALARO and REMO, were run over the Central Asia CORDEX (CAS-CORDEX) domain, covering most of the Eurasian continent. The resulting climate data was evaluated to investigate whether these RCMs produce reliable climate information. In general both RCMs reproduced realistic spatial patterns for temperature, but they underestimated the diurnal temperature range. There were also significant biases found in multiple subregions during several seasons, e.g., a warm bias in the north during winter and a wet bias over the Asian monsoon region. The projections of four global-regional climate model combinations of a small multi-model ensemble showed for the 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C global warming levels geographically unequal warming and precipitation trends over Eurasia, with a faster warming rate and increasing precipitation in northern Eurasia due to the Arctic amplification. Further, a significant decrease in precipitation was found over southeastern China for global warming beyond 2 °C. Outdoor thermal ... |
author2 |
Caluwaerts, Steven De Maeyer, Philippe Termonia, Piet |
format |
Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
author |
Top, Sara |
author_facet |
Top, Sara |
author_sort |
Top, Sara |
title |
Modelling the future climate and outdoor thermal comfort over Eurasia |
title_short |
Modelling the future climate and outdoor thermal comfort over Eurasia |
title_full |
Modelling the future climate and outdoor thermal comfort over Eurasia |
title_fullStr |
Modelling the future climate and outdoor thermal comfort over Eurasia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling the future climate and outdoor thermal comfort over Eurasia |
title_sort |
modelling the future climate and outdoor thermal comfort over eurasia |
publisher |
Ghent University. Faculty of Sciences |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/8755381 http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-8755381 https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/8755381/file/8755387 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-128.718,-128.718,54.496,54.496) |
geographic |
Arctic Remo |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Remo |
genre |
Arctic Global warming Human health |
genre_facet |
Arctic Global warming Human health |
op_relation |
https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/8755381 http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-8755381 https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/8755381/file/8755387 |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0) info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess |
_version_ |
1768383889275879424 |