Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on combined temperature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterranean mountains: Observed relationships and projections for the 21st century
Previous research has identified the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as one of the dominant atmospheric patterns on the temporal evolution of precipitation and temperature in the Mediterranean area. The NAO is seen to markedly affect snowpack variability and water resource availability in many moun...
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ftunivgeneve:oai:unige.ch:unige:18463 2023-05-15T17:32:02+02:00 Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on combined temperature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterranean mountains: Observed relationships and projections for the 21st century López-Moreno, J.I. Vicente-Serrano, S.M. Morán-Tejeda, E. Lorenzo-Lacruz, J. Kenawy, A. Beniston, Martin 2011 https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:18463 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.03.003 unige:18463 https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:18463 info:eu-repo/semantics/ ISSN: 0921-8181 Global and planetary change, Vol. 77, No 1-2 (2011) pp. 62-76 info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/333.7-333.9 Text Article scientifique info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/metadataOnly 2011 ftunivgeneve https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.03.003 2022-06-19T23:38:26Z Previous research has identified the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as one of the dominant atmospheric patterns on the temporal evolution of precipitation and temperature in the Mediterranean area. The NAO is seen to markedly affect snowpack variability and water resource availability in many mountain areas. This study investigated the influence of the NAO on winter precipitation and temperature variability, and on the occurrence of four winter climate modes defined on the basis of combined precipitation and temperature quantiles: warm and wet (WW), warm and dry (WD), cold and wet (CW) and cold and dry (CD). It is known that the occurrence of different winter modes is closely related to snow accumulation in mountains. The present study focused on 15 mountain areas in Mediterranean Europe, Morocco, Turkey and Lebanon. Global circulation models (GCMs) have been used to simulate the relationships between the NAO and winter modes for the next century under a moderate (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions scenario. The results show that for the majority of the mountain areas in the Mediterranean region, the occurrence of different winter modes was closely related to the NAO state, although the relationships were weaker in the easternmost part of the Mediterranean basin. GCMs have accurately simulated the observed relationships, and indicate that the NAO will continue to influence the occurrence of combined precipitation and temperature modes in coming decades. The GCMs also suggest enhanced winter NAOs in the future, which could lead to an increase in the frequency of dry modes. Moreover, as the simulations indicate a steady increase in temperature, winters classified as “cold” in the 21st century will be noticeably rarer compared with recent decades. The relationships between the NAO and snowpack may also change substantially in the future, especially in low altitude areas. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Université de Genève: Archive ouverte UNIGE Global and Planetary Change 77 1-2 62 76 |
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Université de Genève: Archive ouverte UNIGE |
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English |
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info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/333.7-333.9 |
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info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/333.7-333.9 López-Moreno, J.I. Vicente-Serrano, S.M. Morán-Tejeda, E. Lorenzo-Lacruz, J. Kenawy, A. Beniston, Martin Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on combined temperature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterranean mountains: Observed relationships and projections for the 21st century |
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info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/333.7-333.9 |
description |
Previous research has identified the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as one of the dominant atmospheric patterns on the temporal evolution of precipitation and temperature in the Mediterranean area. The NAO is seen to markedly affect snowpack variability and water resource availability in many mountain areas. This study investigated the influence of the NAO on winter precipitation and temperature variability, and on the occurrence of four winter climate modes defined on the basis of combined precipitation and temperature quantiles: warm and wet (WW), warm and dry (WD), cold and wet (CW) and cold and dry (CD). It is known that the occurrence of different winter modes is closely related to snow accumulation in mountains. The present study focused on 15 mountain areas in Mediterranean Europe, Morocco, Turkey and Lebanon. Global circulation models (GCMs) have been used to simulate the relationships between the NAO and winter modes for the next century under a moderate (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions scenario. The results show that for the majority of the mountain areas in the Mediterranean region, the occurrence of different winter modes was closely related to the NAO state, although the relationships were weaker in the easternmost part of the Mediterranean basin. GCMs have accurately simulated the observed relationships, and indicate that the NAO will continue to influence the occurrence of combined precipitation and temperature modes in coming decades. The GCMs also suggest enhanced winter NAOs in the future, which could lead to an increase in the frequency of dry modes. Moreover, as the simulations indicate a steady increase in temperature, winters classified as “cold” in the 21st century will be noticeably rarer compared with recent decades. The relationships between the NAO and snowpack may also change substantially in the future, especially in low altitude areas. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
López-Moreno, J.I. Vicente-Serrano, S.M. Morán-Tejeda, E. Lorenzo-Lacruz, J. Kenawy, A. Beniston, Martin |
author_facet |
López-Moreno, J.I. Vicente-Serrano, S.M. Morán-Tejeda, E. Lorenzo-Lacruz, J. Kenawy, A. Beniston, Martin |
author_sort |
López-Moreno, J.I. |
title |
Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on combined temperature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterranean mountains: Observed relationships and projections for the 21st century |
title_short |
Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on combined temperature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterranean mountains: Observed relationships and projections for the 21st century |
title_full |
Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on combined temperature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterranean mountains: Observed relationships and projections for the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on combined temperature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterranean mountains: Observed relationships and projections for the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on combined temperature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterranean mountains: Observed relationships and projections for the 21st century |
title_sort |
effects of the north atlantic oscillation (nao) on combined temperature and precipitation winter modes in the mediterranean mountains: observed relationships and projections for the 21st century |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:18463 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
ISSN: 0921-8181 Global and planetary change, Vol. 77, No 1-2 (2011) pp. 62-76 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.03.003 unige:18463 https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:18463 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.03.003 |
container_title |
Global and Planetary Change |
container_volume |
77 |
container_issue |
1-2 |
container_start_page |
62 |
op_container_end_page |
76 |
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1766129954432483328 |