21st century climate change in the European Alps—A review
Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the sametime, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climatemodels,which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present st...
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ftunivgeneve:oai:unige.ch:aou:unige:30039 2023-10-01T03:58:54+02:00 21st century climate change in the European Alps—A review Gobiet, Andreas Kotlarski, Sven Beniston, Martin Heinrich, Georg Rajczak, Jan Stoffel, Markus 2014 https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:30039 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.07.050 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/212250/EU/Assessment of climatic change and impacts on the quantity and quality of water/ACQWA https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:30039 unige:30039 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess ISSN: 0048-9697 Science of the total environment, vol. 493 (2014) p. 1138-1151 info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/333.7-333.9 Climate change Alpine region Extremes Snow Drought Natural hazards info:eu-repo/semantics/article Text Article scientifique info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion 2014 ftunivgeneve https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.07.050 2023-09-07T07:09:25Z Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the sametime, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climatemodels,which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. In particular, it explicitly considers the reliability and uncertainty of climate projections. Results showthat besides Alpine temperatures, also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be affected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °Cwarming per decade until themid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity, and more intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500–2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic parameters and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Université de Genève: Archive ouverte UNIGE Science of The Total Environment 493 1138 1151 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Genève: Archive ouverte UNIGE |
op_collection_id |
ftunivgeneve |
language |
English |
topic |
info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/333.7-333.9 Climate change Alpine region Extremes Snow Drought Natural hazards |
spellingShingle |
info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/333.7-333.9 Climate change Alpine region Extremes Snow Drought Natural hazards Gobiet, Andreas Kotlarski, Sven Beniston, Martin Heinrich, Georg Rajczak, Jan Stoffel, Markus 21st century climate change in the European Alps—A review |
topic_facet |
info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/333.7-333.9 Climate change Alpine region Extremes Snow Drought Natural hazards |
description |
Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the sametime, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climatemodels,which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. In particular, it explicitly considers the reliability and uncertainty of climate projections. Results showthat besides Alpine temperatures, also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be affected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °Cwarming per decade until themid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity, and more intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500–2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic parameters and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gobiet, Andreas Kotlarski, Sven Beniston, Martin Heinrich, Georg Rajczak, Jan Stoffel, Markus |
author_facet |
Gobiet, Andreas Kotlarski, Sven Beniston, Martin Heinrich, Georg Rajczak, Jan Stoffel, Markus |
author_sort |
Gobiet, Andreas |
title |
21st century climate change in the European Alps—A review |
title_short |
21st century climate change in the European Alps—A review |
title_full |
21st century climate change in the European Alps—A review |
title_fullStr |
21st century climate change in the European Alps—A review |
title_full_unstemmed |
21st century climate change in the European Alps—A review |
title_sort |
21st century climate change in the european alps—a review |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:30039 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
ISSN: 0048-9697 Science of the total environment, vol. 493 (2014) p. 1138-1151 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.07.050 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/212250/EU/Assessment of climatic change and impacts on the quantity and quality of water/ACQWA https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:30039 unige:30039 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.07.050 |
container_title |
Science of The Total Environment |
container_volume |
493 |
container_start_page |
1138 |
op_container_end_page |
1151 |
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1778532144863248384 |