River discharge in South America : agreement and contradictions between recent alteration and projected changes
Climate scenarios are important information for water planning, but, in some cases, they disagree with recent climate alterations, which affects their robustness and reliability. Robustness evaluation can help identifying areas that should be prioritized by in water sector adaptation to climate chan...
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ftunivfrgs:oai:www.lume.ufrgs.br:10183/268512 2024-01-21T10:08:56+01:00 River discharge in South America : agreement and contradictions between recent alteration and projected changes Vazões dos rios da América do Sul : concordância e contradições entre alterações recentes e projetadas Miranda, Pedro Torres Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de Gama, Cléber Henrique Araújo Brêda, João Paulo Lyra Fialho 2023 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10183/268512 eng eng Rbrh : revista brasileira de recursos hídricos. Vol. 28 (2023), e18, 15 f. 1414-381X http://hdl.handle.net/10183/268512 001189765 Open Access Climate change impacts South America Discharge alteration Robustness Gestão de recursos hídricos Mudanças climáticas Previsão de vazões América do Sul Artigo de periódico Nacional 2023 ftunivfrgs 2023-12-24T00:16:09Z Climate scenarios are important information for water planning, but, in some cases, they disagree with recent climate alterations, which affects their robustness and reliability. Robustness evaluation can help identifying areas that should be prioritized by in water sector adaptation to climate change. Although crucial, this kind of analysis has been overlooked in most climate change assessments, for instance in South America. This study assesses the robustness and reliability of river discharge scenarios by comparing them with observed and modelled data. Areas where current changes and scenarios agree are more likely to experience changes and, therefore, water planners should pay special attention to them. Tocantins-Araguaia, São Francisco, Western Northeast Atlantic and upper La Plata basins agreed with a discharge decrease, indicating that climate change should be prioritized in planning. Orinoco and upper-western Amazon basins showed strong disagreement between recent and projected discharge alterations, with positive change in last decades, showing that scenarios in these regions should be carefully interpreted. With this, water planners could interpret Northeastern and upper-central South America as presenting more likely scenarios in comparison to Amazon and Orinoco basins. Cenários climáticos fornecem informações importantes para o planejamento de recursos hídricos. Contudo, eles mostram inconsistências com mudanças climáticas recentes em alguns casos, o que afeta sua robustez e confiabilidade. A avaliação de robustez pode auxiliar na identificação de áreas prioritárias na adaptação de recursos hídricos a mudanças climáticas. Mesmo sendo relevante, esse tipo de análise tem sido menosprezado em avaliações de mudanças climáticas, por exemplo, na América do Sul. Nesse estudo, avaliamos a robustez e confiabilidade de cenários de alteração de vazão os comparando com dados observados e modelados recentes. Projeções climáticas são mais prováveis de acontecer em regiões que mostram concordância entre mudanças ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Northeast Atlantic Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS): Lume |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS): Lume |
op_collection_id |
ftunivfrgs |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate change impacts South America Discharge alteration Robustness Gestão de recursos hídricos Mudanças climáticas Previsão de vazões América do Sul |
spellingShingle |
Climate change impacts South America Discharge alteration Robustness Gestão de recursos hídricos Mudanças climáticas Previsão de vazões América do Sul Miranda, Pedro Torres Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de Gama, Cléber Henrique Araújo Brêda, João Paulo Lyra Fialho River discharge in South America : agreement and contradictions between recent alteration and projected changes |
topic_facet |
Climate change impacts South America Discharge alteration Robustness Gestão de recursos hídricos Mudanças climáticas Previsão de vazões América do Sul |
description |
Climate scenarios are important information for water planning, but, in some cases, they disagree with recent climate alterations, which affects their robustness and reliability. Robustness evaluation can help identifying areas that should be prioritized by in water sector adaptation to climate change. Although crucial, this kind of analysis has been overlooked in most climate change assessments, for instance in South America. This study assesses the robustness and reliability of river discharge scenarios by comparing them with observed and modelled data. Areas where current changes and scenarios agree are more likely to experience changes and, therefore, water planners should pay special attention to them. Tocantins-Araguaia, São Francisco, Western Northeast Atlantic and upper La Plata basins agreed with a discharge decrease, indicating that climate change should be prioritized in planning. Orinoco and upper-western Amazon basins showed strong disagreement between recent and projected discharge alterations, with positive change in last decades, showing that scenarios in these regions should be carefully interpreted. With this, water planners could interpret Northeastern and upper-central South America as presenting more likely scenarios in comparison to Amazon and Orinoco basins. Cenários climáticos fornecem informações importantes para o planejamento de recursos hídricos. Contudo, eles mostram inconsistências com mudanças climáticas recentes em alguns casos, o que afeta sua robustez e confiabilidade. A avaliação de robustez pode auxiliar na identificação de áreas prioritárias na adaptação de recursos hídricos a mudanças climáticas. Mesmo sendo relevante, esse tipo de análise tem sido menosprezado em avaliações de mudanças climáticas, por exemplo, na América do Sul. Nesse estudo, avaliamos a robustez e confiabilidade de cenários de alteração de vazão os comparando com dados observados e modelados recentes. Projeções climáticas são mais prováveis de acontecer em regiões que mostram concordância entre mudanças ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Miranda, Pedro Torres Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de Gama, Cléber Henrique Araújo Brêda, João Paulo Lyra Fialho |
author_facet |
Miranda, Pedro Torres Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de Gama, Cléber Henrique Araújo Brêda, João Paulo Lyra Fialho |
author_sort |
Miranda, Pedro Torres |
title |
River discharge in South America : agreement and contradictions between recent alteration and projected changes |
title_short |
River discharge in South America : agreement and contradictions between recent alteration and projected changes |
title_full |
River discharge in South America : agreement and contradictions between recent alteration and projected changes |
title_fullStr |
River discharge in South America : agreement and contradictions between recent alteration and projected changes |
title_full_unstemmed |
River discharge in South America : agreement and contradictions between recent alteration and projected changes |
title_sort |
river discharge in south america : agreement and contradictions between recent alteration and projected changes |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10183/268512 |
genre |
Northeast Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northeast Atlantic |
op_relation |
Rbrh : revista brasileira de recursos hídricos. Vol. 28 (2023), e18, 15 f. 1414-381X http://hdl.handle.net/10183/268512 001189765 |
op_rights |
Open Access |
_version_ |
1788699825143808000 |