Caribbean cyclone activity: an annually‑resolved common era record
Tropical cyclones (TC) represent a substantial threat to life and property for Caribbean and adjacent populations. The prospective increase of TC magnitudes, expressed in the 15th chapter of the IPCC AR5 report, entails a rising probability of ecological and social disasters, which were tragically e...
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ftunivfrankfurt:oai:publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de:55467 2023-06-11T04:14:56+02:00 Caribbean cyclone activity: an annually‑resolved common era record Schmitt, Dominik Gischler, Eberhard (Prof. Dr.) Anselmetti, Flavio Vogel, Hendrik 2020-07-16 application/octet-stream http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/55467 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-554677 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-68633-8 http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/files/55467/Schmitt_caribbean_cyclone.zip eng eng http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/55467 urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-554677 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-554677 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-68633-8 http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/files/55467/Schmitt_caribbean_cyclone.zip http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess ddc:550 article doc-type:article 2020 ftunivfrankfurt https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-68633-8 2023-04-23T22:40:35Z Tropical cyclones (TC) represent a substantial threat to life and property for Caribbean and adjacent populations. The prospective increase of TC magnitudes, expressed in the 15th chapter of the IPCC AR5 report, entails a rising probability of ecological and social disasters, which were tragically exemplified by several severe Caribbean TC strikes during the past 20 years. Modern IPCC-grade climate models, however, still lack the required spatial and temporal resolution to accurately consider the underlying boundary conditions that modulate long-time TC patterns beyond the Instrumental Era. It is thus necessary to provide a synoptic mechanistic understanding regarding the origin of such long-time patterns, in order to predict reliable changes of TC magnitude and frequency under future climate scenarios. Caribbean TC records are still rare and often lack the necessary continuity and resolution to overcome these limitations. Here, we report on an annually-resolved sedimentary archive from the bottom of the Great Blue Hole (Lighthouse Reef, Belize). The TC record encompasses 1885 years and extends all existing site-specific TC archives both in terms of resolution and duration. We identified a likely connection between long-term TC patterns and climate phenomena responses to Common Era climate variations and offer a conceptual and comparative view considering several involved tropospheric and oceanographic control mechanisms such as the El-Niño-Southern-Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These basin-scaled climate modes exercise internal control on TC activity by modulating the thermodynamic environment (sea-surface temperature and vertical wind shear stress dynamics) for enhanced/suppressed TC formation both on millennial (primary) and multi-decadal (secondary) time scales. We interpret the beginning of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) as an important time interval of the Common Era record and suspect that the southward migration of the intertropical convergence ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Publication Server of Goethe University Frankfurt am Main Scientific Reports 10 1 |
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Publication Server of Goethe University Frankfurt am Main |
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ftunivfrankfurt |
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English |
topic |
ddc:550 |
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ddc:550 Schmitt, Dominik Gischler, Eberhard (Prof. Dr.) Anselmetti, Flavio Vogel, Hendrik Caribbean cyclone activity: an annually‑resolved common era record |
topic_facet |
ddc:550 |
description |
Tropical cyclones (TC) represent a substantial threat to life and property for Caribbean and adjacent populations. The prospective increase of TC magnitudes, expressed in the 15th chapter of the IPCC AR5 report, entails a rising probability of ecological and social disasters, which were tragically exemplified by several severe Caribbean TC strikes during the past 20 years. Modern IPCC-grade climate models, however, still lack the required spatial and temporal resolution to accurately consider the underlying boundary conditions that modulate long-time TC patterns beyond the Instrumental Era. It is thus necessary to provide a synoptic mechanistic understanding regarding the origin of such long-time patterns, in order to predict reliable changes of TC magnitude and frequency under future climate scenarios. Caribbean TC records are still rare and often lack the necessary continuity and resolution to overcome these limitations. Here, we report on an annually-resolved sedimentary archive from the bottom of the Great Blue Hole (Lighthouse Reef, Belize). The TC record encompasses 1885 years and extends all existing site-specific TC archives both in terms of resolution and duration. We identified a likely connection between long-term TC patterns and climate phenomena responses to Common Era climate variations and offer a conceptual and comparative view considering several involved tropospheric and oceanographic control mechanisms such as the El-Niño-Southern-Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These basin-scaled climate modes exercise internal control on TC activity by modulating the thermodynamic environment (sea-surface temperature and vertical wind shear stress dynamics) for enhanced/suppressed TC formation both on millennial (primary) and multi-decadal (secondary) time scales. We interpret the beginning of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) as an important time interval of the Common Era record and suspect that the southward migration of the intertropical convergence ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Schmitt, Dominik Gischler, Eberhard (Prof. Dr.) Anselmetti, Flavio Vogel, Hendrik |
author_facet |
Schmitt, Dominik Gischler, Eberhard (Prof. Dr.) Anselmetti, Flavio Vogel, Hendrik |
author_sort |
Schmitt, Dominik |
title |
Caribbean cyclone activity: an annually‑resolved common era record |
title_short |
Caribbean cyclone activity: an annually‑resolved common era record |
title_full |
Caribbean cyclone activity: an annually‑resolved common era record |
title_fullStr |
Caribbean cyclone activity: an annually‑resolved common era record |
title_full_unstemmed |
Caribbean cyclone activity: an annually‑resolved common era record |
title_sort |
caribbean cyclone activity: an annually‑resolved common era record |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/55467 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-554677 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-68633-8 http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/files/55467/Schmitt_caribbean_cyclone.zip |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/55467 urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-554677 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-554677 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-68633-8 http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/files/55467/Schmitt_caribbean_cyclone.zip |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-68633-8 |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
10 |
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1 |
_version_ |
1768371332082302976 |