Aplicação do Índice Padronizado de Precipitação (SPI) e de Vazão (SSI) para análise de eventos de seca na bacia do Rio Suaçuí Grande/MG

• Published in: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
• Main Author: Pereira, Gabriela Soares
• Other Authors: Freitas, Ana Carolina Vasques, http://lattes.cnpq.br/4997501162611820, Monte-Mor, Roberto Cézar de Almeida, http://lattes.cnpq.br/6305164504868109, Lima, Fernando Neves, http://lattes.cnpq.br/3897081967125561, Cunha, Ana Paula Martins do Amaral, http://lattes.cnpq.br/6964245671860817
• Format: Thesis
• Language: Portuguese
• Published: Universidade Federal de Itajubá 2022
• Subjects: wetland natural; natural wetland; lixiviado; leachate; aterro sanitário; landfill; CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA SANITARIA::RECURSOS HIDRICOS::PLANEJAMENTO INTEGRADO DOS RECURSOS HIDRICOS; Eta; Arctic
• Online Access: https://repositorio.unifei.edu.br/jspui/handle/123456789/3444

Fresh water is essential in all aspects of life and sustainable development; however, pressure on water resources has intensified and climate change has caused changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts. The Suaçuí Grande river basin, object of this study, is located in Minas Gerais state, having approximately 12,413 km² and facing critical situations of water scarcity. In order to study the current drought situation in the region, two indices were analyzed: the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), using observed flow and precipitation data from fluviometric and pluviometric stations, respectively, for the period from January 1985 to December 2019. To study the future projections, the SPI was analyzed, for the RCP8.5 scenario, through simulated precipitation data from the regionalized climate model Eta-HadGEM2-ES, for the period from 2025 to 2055. Analysis of duration, severity, intensity and frequency of drought events were carried out. Maps of the drought events frequency were also prepared to contribute to the spatial analysis. In addition, an assessment of the existing correlation between the SSI and the SPI was performed. From the analyses, it was possible to identify that, from mid-2010, more prolonged, frequent and intense drought events began to occur in the Suaçuí Grande river basin, and, from mid-2015, these drought events are more noticeable, presenting longer durations or recurrences. Rainfall stations located in municipalities with higher altitudes showed lesser intense negative values of SPI-12 since 2010. Through the SSI-12 it is possible to verify the occurrence of drought events even more intense than those identified through the SPI-12, especially from 2015 until the end of the historical series. It was observed that the correlations between the SPI and the SSI gradually increase according to the time scale, possibly indicating that changes in the rainfall regime strongly impact water availability ...