A size-age model based on bootstrapping and Bayesian approaches to assess population dynamics of Anguilla anguilla L. in semi-closed lagoons
A size-age modelling technique is presented for assessing the vital rates, stock and recruitment of eel populations in semi-closed lagoons with fully monitored migration of silver eels. Data for yellow and silver European eels (Anguilla anguilla L.) were obtained in 2011 from the Comacchio lagoon (I...
Published in: | Ecology of Freshwater Fish |
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ftunivferrarair:oai:iris.unife.it:11392/2338314 2023-05-15T13:26:57+02:00 A size-age model based on bootstrapping and Bayesian approaches to assess population dynamics of Anguilla anguilla L. in semi-closed lagoons Aschonitis, Vassilis G. Merighi, Matteo Gelli, Fernando Rossi, Remigio CASTALDELLI, Giuseppe LANZONI, Mattia GIARI, Luisa FANO, Elisa Anna Aschonitis, Vassilis G. Castaldelli, Giuseppe Lanzoni, Mattia Merighi, Matteo Gelli, Fernando Giari, Luisa Rossi, Remigio Fano, Elisa Anna In Press ELETTRONICO http://hdl.handle.net/11392/2338314 https://doi.org/10.1111/eff.12269 http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/117978938/toc eng eng volume:- firstpage:n/a lastpage:n/a journal:ECOLOGY OF FRESHWATER FISH http://hdl.handle.net/11392/2338314 doi:10.1111/eff.12269 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-84952705380 http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/117978938/toc Anguilla anguilla Bayesian probability Bootstrap regression Eel management Stock assessment Aquatic Science Ecology Evolution Behavior and Systematic info:eu-repo/semantics/article ftunivferrarair https://doi.org/10.1111/eff.12269 2023-03-01T21:17:45Z A size-age modelling technique is presented for assessing the vital rates, stock and recruitment of eel populations in semi-closed lagoons with fully monitored migration of silver eels. Data for yellow and silver European eels (Anguilla anguilla L.) were obtained in 2011 from the Comacchio lagoon (Italy). The analysis was performed in three steps: (i) correction of yellow eel data, which are affected by the fyke nets selectivity during samplings, (ii) estimation of survival curve, stock, recruitment and metamorphosis rates of the population (calibration using data from 2011) and (iii) validation of the model using the observed amount of silver eel migrating population of the next year. A bootstrap procedure was used to assess the level of uncertainty for each parameter using the 95% intervals of the highest posterior density distribution HPDD (Bayesian approach). The measured abundance of silver eels was 0.56 ind·ha-1, while the yellow eel abundance and recruitment were estimated by the model for 2011 at 8.77 ind·ha-1 and 5.99 ind. ha-1 respectively. The model performance during validation was satisfactory as the observed total mass of migrating population of 2012 (3777 kg) was inside the 95% HPDD intervals (3197-3839 kg) of model's predictions. The estimated stocks and recruitment were at least ten times lower from the respective estimations of previous studies of 1989 highlighting the crucial conditions of the population. The proposed modelling approach can provide significant information about eel population conditions, facilitating the evaluation of a range of management options in the context of eel conservation plans. Article in Journal/Newspaper Anguilla anguilla Università degli Studi di Ferrara: CINECA IRIS Ecology of Freshwater Fish 26 2 217 232 |
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Open Polar |
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Università degli Studi di Ferrara: CINECA IRIS |
op_collection_id |
ftunivferrarair |
language |
English |
topic |
Anguilla anguilla Bayesian probability Bootstrap regression Eel management Stock assessment Aquatic Science Ecology Evolution Behavior and Systematic |
spellingShingle |
Anguilla anguilla Bayesian probability Bootstrap regression Eel management Stock assessment Aquatic Science Ecology Evolution Behavior and Systematic Aschonitis, Vassilis G. Merighi, Matteo Gelli, Fernando Rossi, Remigio CASTALDELLI, Giuseppe LANZONI, Mattia GIARI, Luisa FANO, Elisa Anna A size-age model based on bootstrapping and Bayesian approaches to assess population dynamics of Anguilla anguilla L. in semi-closed lagoons |
topic_facet |
Anguilla anguilla Bayesian probability Bootstrap regression Eel management Stock assessment Aquatic Science Ecology Evolution Behavior and Systematic |
description |
A size-age modelling technique is presented for assessing the vital rates, stock and recruitment of eel populations in semi-closed lagoons with fully monitored migration of silver eels. Data for yellow and silver European eels (Anguilla anguilla L.) were obtained in 2011 from the Comacchio lagoon (Italy). The analysis was performed in three steps: (i) correction of yellow eel data, which are affected by the fyke nets selectivity during samplings, (ii) estimation of survival curve, stock, recruitment and metamorphosis rates of the population (calibration using data from 2011) and (iii) validation of the model using the observed amount of silver eel migrating population of the next year. A bootstrap procedure was used to assess the level of uncertainty for each parameter using the 95% intervals of the highest posterior density distribution HPDD (Bayesian approach). The measured abundance of silver eels was 0.56 ind·ha-1, while the yellow eel abundance and recruitment were estimated by the model for 2011 at 8.77 ind·ha-1 and 5.99 ind. ha-1 respectively. The model performance during validation was satisfactory as the observed total mass of migrating population of 2012 (3777 kg) was inside the 95% HPDD intervals (3197-3839 kg) of model's predictions. The estimated stocks and recruitment were at least ten times lower from the respective estimations of previous studies of 1989 highlighting the crucial conditions of the population. The proposed modelling approach can provide significant information about eel population conditions, facilitating the evaluation of a range of management options in the context of eel conservation plans. |
author2 |
Aschonitis, Vassilis G. Castaldelli, Giuseppe Lanzoni, Mattia Merighi, Matteo Gelli, Fernando Giari, Luisa Rossi, Remigio Fano, Elisa Anna |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Aschonitis, Vassilis G. Merighi, Matteo Gelli, Fernando Rossi, Remigio CASTALDELLI, Giuseppe LANZONI, Mattia GIARI, Luisa FANO, Elisa Anna |
author_facet |
Aschonitis, Vassilis G. Merighi, Matteo Gelli, Fernando Rossi, Remigio CASTALDELLI, Giuseppe LANZONI, Mattia GIARI, Luisa FANO, Elisa Anna |
author_sort |
Aschonitis, Vassilis G. |
title |
A size-age model based on bootstrapping and Bayesian approaches to assess population dynamics of Anguilla anguilla L. in semi-closed lagoons |
title_short |
A size-age model based on bootstrapping and Bayesian approaches to assess population dynamics of Anguilla anguilla L. in semi-closed lagoons |
title_full |
A size-age model based on bootstrapping and Bayesian approaches to assess population dynamics of Anguilla anguilla L. in semi-closed lagoons |
title_fullStr |
A size-age model based on bootstrapping and Bayesian approaches to assess population dynamics of Anguilla anguilla L. in semi-closed lagoons |
title_full_unstemmed |
A size-age model based on bootstrapping and Bayesian approaches to assess population dynamics of Anguilla anguilla L. in semi-closed lagoons |
title_sort |
size-age model based on bootstrapping and bayesian approaches to assess population dynamics of anguilla anguilla l. in semi-closed lagoons |
publishDate |
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url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11392/2338314 https://doi.org/10.1111/eff.12269 http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/117978938/toc |
genre |
Anguilla anguilla |
genre_facet |
Anguilla anguilla |
op_relation |
volume:- firstpage:n/a lastpage:n/a journal:ECOLOGY OF FRESHWATER FISH http://hdl.handle.net/11392/2338314 doi:10.1111/eff.12269 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-84952705380 http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/117978938/toc |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/eff.12269 |
container_title |
Ecology of Freshwater Fish |
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26 |
container_issue |
2 |
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217 |
op_container_end_page |
232 |
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1766395542502375424 |