Global changes in extreme daily temperature since 1950
Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union Extreme value analysis of observed daily temperature anomalies from a new quasi-global data set indicates that extreme daily maximum and minimum temperatures (>98.5 or <1.5 percentile) have warmed for most regions since 1950. Changes in extreme...
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ftunivexeter:oai:ore.exeter.ac.uk:10871/8522 2023-05-15T15:09:58+02:00 Global changes in extreme daily temperature since 1950 Brown, S.J. Caesar, J. Ferro, Christopher A.T. 2008 http://hdl.handle.net/10871/8522 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008091 en eng American Geophysical Union http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008091 Vol. 113 (D5), article D05115 doi:10.1029/2006JD008091 http://hdl.handle.net/10871/8522 2169-8961 Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres precipitation extremes surface temperature arctic oscillation climate change coupled model United States simulations variability ensemble 20th Century Article 2008 ftunivexeter https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008091 2022-11-20T21:30:25Z Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union Extreme value analysis of observed daily temperature anomalies from a new quasi-global data set indicates that extreme daily maximum and minimum temperatures (>98.5 or <1.5 percentile) have warmed for most regions since 1950. Changes in extreme anomalous daily temperatures are determined by fitting extreme value distributions with time-varying parameters. Changes in the distribution of anomaly exceedances above a high threshold are found to be statistically significant at the 10% level for most land areas when compared with a time-invariant distribution and with the unforced natural variability produced by a coupled climate model. The largest positive trends in the location parameter of the extreme distribution are found in Canada and Eurasia where daily maximum temperatures have typically warmed by 1 to 3 degrees C since 1950. The total area exhibiting positive trends is significantly greater than can be attributed to unforced natural variability. For most regions, positive trend magnitudes are larger and cover a greater area for daily minimum temperatures than for maximum temperatures. The comparatively small areas of cooling are found to be consistent with unforced natural climate variability. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is found to have a significant influence on extreme winter daily temperatures for many areas, with a negative NAO of one standard deviation reducing expected extreme winter daily temperatures by similar to 2 degrees C over Eurasia but increasing temperatures over northeastern North America. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation University of Exeter: Open Research Exeter (ORE) Arctic Canada Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 113 D5 n/a n/a |
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Open Polar |
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University of Exeter: Open Research Exeter (ORE) |
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ftunivexeter |
language |
English |
topic |
precipitation extremes surface temperature arctic oscillation climate change coupled model United States simulations variability ensemble 20th Century |
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precipitation extremes surface temperature arctic oscillation climate change coupled model United States simulations variability ensemble 20th Century Brown, S.J. Caesar, J. Ferro, Christopher A.T. Global changes in extreme daily temperature since 1950 |
topic_facet |
precipitation extremes surface temperature arctic oscillation climate change coupled model United States simulations variability ensemble 20th Century |
description |
Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union Extreme value analysis of observed daily temperature anomalies from a new quasi-global data set indicates that extreme daily maximum and minimum temperatures (>98.5 or <1.5 percentile) have warmed for most regions since 1950. Changes in extreme anomalous daily temperatures are determined by fitting extreme value distributions with time-varying parameters. Changes in the distribution of anomaly exceedances above a high threshold are found to be statistically significant at the 10% level for most land areas when compared with a time-invariant distribution and with the unforced natural variability produced by a coupled climate model. The largest positive trends in the location parameter of the extreme distribution are found in Canada and Eurasia where daily maximum temperatures have typically warmed by 1 to 3 degrees C since 1950. The total area exhibiting positive trends is significantly greater than can be attributed to unforced natural variability. For most regions, positive trend magnitudes are larger and cover a greater area for daily minimum temperatures than for maximum temperatures. The comparatively small areas of cooling are found to be consistent with unforced natural climate variability. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is found to have a significant influence on extreme winter daily temperatures for many areas, with a negative NAO of one standard deviation reducing expected extreme winter daily temperatures by similar to 2 degrees C over Eurasia but increasing temperatures over northeastern North America. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Brown, S.J. Caesar, J. Ferro, Christopher A.T. |
author_facet |
Brown, S.J. Caesar, J. Ferro, Christopher A.T. |
author_sort |
Brown, S.J. |
title |
Global changes in extreme daily temperature since 1950 |
title_short |
Global changes in extreme daily temperature since 1950 |
title_full |
Global changes in extreme daily temperature since 1950 |
title_fullStr |
Global changes in extreme daily temperature since 1950 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global changes in extreme daily temperature since 1950 |
title_sort |
global changes in extreme daily temperature since 1950 |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10871/8522 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008091 |
geographic |
Arctic Canada |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada |
genre |
Arctic Climate change North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008091 Vol. 113 (D5), article D05115 doi:10.1029/2006JD008091 http://hdl.handle.net/10871/8522 2169-8961 Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008091 |
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Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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113 |
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D5 |
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1766341049672794112 |