Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level

• Published in: Nature
• Main Author: Perry, C
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Nature Publishing Group 2018
• Subjects: coral reef growth capacity; Ocean acidification
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/33212; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0194-z

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Publishing Group via the DOI in this record. Sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to elevate water depths above coral reefs and to increase coastal wave exposure as ecological degradation limits vertical reef growth, but projections lack data on interactions between local rates of reef growth and sea level rise. Here we calculate the vertical growth potential of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs, and compare these against recent and projected rates of SLR under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although many reefs retain accretion rates close to recent SLR trends, few will have the capacity to track SLR projections under RCP4.5 scenarios without sustained ecological recovery, and under RCP8.5 scenarios most reefs are predicted to experience mean water depth increases of more than 0.5 m by 2100. Coral cover strongly predicts reef capacity to track SLR, but threshold cover levels that will be necessary to prevent submergence are well above those observed on most reefs. Urgent action is thus needed to mitigate climate, sea-level and future ecological changes in order to limit the magnitude of future reef submergence. We thank the many local institutions that supported and facilitated field data collection. Data collection in the tropical western Atlantic was supported through a Leverhulme Trust International Research Network grant (F/00426/G) to C.T.P. and data collection carried out specifically in Mexico was supported through a Royal Society - Newton Advanced Research Fellowship (NA-150360) to L.A.-F. and C.T.P., in Florida and Puerto Rico as part of the National Coral Reef Monitoring Program through NOAA’s Coral Reef Conservation Program and Ocean Acidification Program to D.P.M. and in the eastern Caribbean through a National Geographic Research Grant to R.S.S. Data collection in the Indian Ocean was supported in Kenya and Mozambique through a NERC-ESPA-DFiD: Ecosystem ...