Historical trends and variability in heat waves in the United Kingdom

• Published in: Atmosphere
• Main Authors: Sanderson, MG, Economou, T, Salmon, KH, Jones, SEO
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI 2017
• Subjects: heat waves; UK; climate variability; logistic regression; temperature; AMO; NAO; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/29695; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8100191

This is the final version of the article. Available from MDPI via the DOI in this record. Increases in numbers and lengths of heat waves have previously been identified in global temperature records, including locations within Europe. However, studies of changes in UK heat wave characteristics are limited. Historic daily maximum temperatures from 29 weather stations with records exceeding 85 years in length across the country were examined. Heat waves were defined as periods with unusually high temperatures for each station, even if the temperatures would not be considered warm in an absolute sense. Positive trends in numbers and lengths of heat waves were identified at some stations. However, for some stations in the south east of England, lengths of very long heat waves (over 10 days) had declined since the 1970s, whereas the lengths of shorter heat waves had increased slightly. Considerable multidecadal variability in heat wave numbers and lengths was apparent at all stations. Logistic regression, using a subset of eight stations with records beginning in the nineteenth century, suggested an association between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the variability in heat wave numbers and lengths, with the summertime North Atlantic Oscillation playing a smaller role. The results were robust against different temperature thresholds. This work was funded under the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in environmental change and health, led by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in partnership with Public Health England (PHE), the University of Exeter and the Met Office.