The importance of spring atmospheric conditions for predictions of the Arctic summer sea ice extent
Recent studies have shown that atmospheric processes in spring play an important role for the initiation of the summer ice melt and therefore may strongly influence the September sea ice concentration (SSIC). Here a simple statistical regression model based on only atmospheric spring parameters is a...
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American Geophysical Union (AGU) / Wiley
2014
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/19750 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060826 |
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ftunivexeter:oai:ore.exeter.ac.uk:10871/19750 2024-09-15T17:53:44+00:00 The importance of spring atmospheric conditions for predictions of the Arctic summer sea ice extent Kapsch, Marie-Luise Graversen, Rune G. Economou, Theodoros Tjernström, Michael 2014 http://hdl.handle.net/10871/19750 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060826 en eng American Geophysical Union (AGU) / Wiley Vol. 41 (14), pp. 5288–5296 doi:10.1002/2014GL060826 http://hdl.handle.net/10871/19750 0094-8276 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters © 2014 American Geophysical Union Article 2014 ftunivexeter https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060826 2024-07-29T03:24:15Z Recent studies have shown that atmospheric processes in spring play an important role for the initiation of the summer ice melt and therefore may strongly influence the September sea ice concentration (SSIC). Here a simple statistical regression model based on only atmospheric spring parameters is applied in order to predict the SSIC over the major part of the Arctic Ocean. By using spring anomalies of downwelling longwave radiation or atmospheric water vapor as predictor variables, correlation coefficients between observed and predicted SSIC of up to 0.5 are found. These skills of seasonal SSIC predictions are similar to those obtained using more complex dynamical forecast systems, despite the fact that the simple model applied here takes neither information of the sea ice state, oceanic conditions nor feedback mechanisms during summer into account. The results indicate that a realistic representation of spring atmospheric conditions in the prediction system plays an important role for the predictive skills of a model system. Swedish Research Council FORMAS Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Ocean Sea ice University of Exeter: Open Research Exeter (ORE) Geophysical Research Letters 41 14 5288 5296 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Exeter: Open Research Exeter (ORE) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivexeter |
language |
English |
description |
Recent studies have shown that atmospheric processes in spring play an important role for the initiation of the summer ice melt and therefore may strongly influence the September sea ice concentration (SSIC). Here a simple statistical regression model based on only atmospheric spring parameters is applied in order to predict the SSIC over the major part of the Arctic Ocean. By using spring anomalies of downwelling longwave radiation or atmospheric water vapor as predictor variables, correlation coefficients between observed and predicted SSIC of up to 0.5 are found. These skills of seasonal SSIC predictions are similar to those obtained using more complex dynamical forecast systems, despite the fact that the simple model applied here takes neither information of the sea ice state, oceanic conditions nor feedback mechanisms during summer into account. The results indicate that a realistic representation of spring atmospheric conditions in the prediction system plays an important role for the predictive skills of a model system. Swedish Research Council FORMAS |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kapsch, Marie-Luise Graversen, Rune G. Economou, Theodoros Tjernström, Michael |
spellingShingle |
Kapsch, Marie-Luise Graversen, Rune G. Economou, Theodoros Tjernström, Michael The importance of spring atmospheric conditions for predictions of the Arctic summer sea ice extent |
author_facet |
Kapsch, Marie-Luise Graversen, Rune G. Economou, Theodoros Tjernström, Michael |
author_sort |
Kapsch, Marie-Luise |
title |
The importance of spring atmospheric conditions for predictions of the Arctic summer sea ice extent |
title_short |
The importance of spring atmospheric conditions for predictions of the Arctic summer sea ice extent |
title_full |
The importance of spring atmospheric conditions for predictions of the Arctic summer sea ice extent |
title_fullStr |
The importance of spring atmospheric conditions for predictions of the Arctic summer sea ice extent |
title_full_unstemmed |
The importance of spring atmospheric conditions for predictions of the Arctic summer sea ice extent |
title_sort |
importance of spring atmospheric conditions for predictions of the arctic summer sea ice extent |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) / Wiley |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10871/19750 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060826 |
genre |
Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
op_relation |
Vol. 41 (14), pp. 5288–5296 doi:10.1002/2014GL060826 http://hdl.handle.net/10871/19750 0094-8276 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters |
op_rights |
© 2014 American Geophysical Union |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060826 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
41 |
container_issue |
14 |
container_start_page |
5288 |
op_container_end_page |
5296 |
_version_ |
1810429743196012544 |