IceChrono1: a probabilistic model to compute a common and optimal chronology for several ice cores

• Published in: Geoscientific Model Development
• Main Authors: Parrenin, Frédéric, Bazin, Lucie, Capron, Emilie, Landais, Amaelle, Lemieux-Dudon, Bénédicte, Masson-Delmotte, Valérie
• Other Authors: Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE), Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), British Antarctic Survey (BAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Mathematics and computing applied to oceanic and atmospheric flows (AIRSEA), Inria Grenoble - Rhône-Alpes, Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann (LJK), Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2015
• Subjects: [SDE]Environmental Sciences; Antarc*; Antarctic; Greenland; Greenland ice core; ice core
• Online Access: https://insu.hal.science/insu-01204928; https://insu.hal.science/insu-01204928/document; https://insu.hal.science/insu-01204928/file/GEOSCIENTIFIC%20MODEL%20DEVELOPMENT%20-%20%20IceChrono%20a%20probabilistic%20model%20to%20compute%20a%20common%20and%20optimal%20chronology%20for%20several%20ice%20cores.pdf; https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1473-2015

International audience Polar ice cores provide exceptional archives of past environmental conditions. The dating of ice cores and the estimation of the age-scale uncertainty are essential to interpret the climate and environmental records that they contain. It is, however, a complex problem which involves different methods. Here, we present IceChrono1, a new probabilistic model integrating various sources of chronological information to produce a common and optimized chronology for several ice cores, as well as its uncertainty. IceChrono1 is based on the inversion of three quantities: the surface accumulation rate, the lock-in depth (LID) of air bubbles and the thinning function. The chronological information integrated into the model are models of the sedimentation process (accumulation of snow, densification of snow into ice and air trapping, ice flow), ice- and air-dated horizons, ice and air depth intervals with known durations, Δdepth observations (depth shift between synchronous events recorded in the ice and in the air) and finally air and ice stratigraphic links in between ice cores. The optimization is formulated as a least squares problem, implying that all densities of probabilities are assumed to be Gaussian. It is numerically solved using the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm and a numerical evaluation of the model's Jacobian. IceChrono follows an approach similar to that of the Datice model which was recently used to produce the AICC2012 (Antarctic ice core chronology) for four Antarctic ice cores and one Greenland ice core. IceChrono1 provides improvements and simplifications with respect to Datice from the mathematical, numerical and programming point of views. The capabilities of IceChrono1 are demonstrated on a case study similar to the AICC2012 dating experiment. We find results similar to those of Datice, within a few centuries, which is a confirmation of both IceChrono1 and Datice codes. We also test new functionalities with respect to the original version of Datice: observations as ice ...