Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty

• Published in: The Cryosphere
• Main Authors: Seroussi, Hélène, Verjans, Vincent, Nowicki, Sophie, Payne, Antony, J, Goelzer, Heiko, Lipscomb, William, H, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cécile, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay-Davis, Xylar, Barthel, Alice, Calov, Reinhard, Cullather, Richard, Dumas, Christophe, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin, K, Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas, R, Gregory, Jonathan, M, Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew, J, Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas, C, Kleiner, Thomas, Larour, Eric, Leguy, Gunter, R, Lowry, Daniel, P, Little, Chistopher, M, Morlighem, Mathieu, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen, F, Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Smith, Robin, S, Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Trusel, Luke, D, van Breedam, Jonas, van Katwyk, Peter, van de Wal, Roderik, S W, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, Zwinger, Thomas
• Other Authors: Dartmouth College Hanover, IBS Center for Climate Physics, Pusan National University, University at Buffalo SUNY (SUNY Buffalo), State University of New York (SUNY), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2023
• Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean; Atmosphere; [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces; environment; Antarc*; Antarctic; Antarctica; East Antarctica; Ice Sheet; Ice Shelf; Pine Island; Pine Island Glacier; The Cryosphere; West Antarctica
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-04337827; https://hal.science/hal-04337827/document; https://hal.science/hal-04337827/file/tc-17-5197-2023.pdf; https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023

International audience Abstract. The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty ...